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A code of length $n$ is said to be (combinatorially) $(\rho,L)$-list decodable if the Hamming ball of radius $\rho n$ around any vector in the ambient space does not contain more than $L$ codewords. We study a recently introduced class of higher order MDS codes, which are closely related (via duality) to codes that achieve a generalized Singleton bound for list decodability. For some $\ell\geq 1$, higher order MDS codes of length $n$, dimension $k$, and order $\ell$ are denoted as $(n,k)$-MDS($\ell$) codes. We present a number of results on the structure of these codes, identifying the `extend-ability' of their parameters in various scenarios. Specifically, for some parameter regimes, we identify conditions under which $(n_1,k_1)$-MDS($\ell_1$) codes can be obtained from $(n_2,k_2)$-MDS($\ell_2$) codes, via various techniques. We believe that these results will aid in efficient constructions of higher order MDS codes. We also obtain a new field size upper bound for the existence of such codes, which arguably improves over the best known existing bound, in some parameter regimes.

Robust feature selection is vital for creating reliable and interpretable Machine Learning (ML) models. When designing statistical prediction models in cases where domain knowledge is limited and underlying interactions are unknown, choosing the optimal set of features is often difficult. To mitigate this issue, we introduce a Multidata (M) causal feature selection approach that simultaneously processes an ensemble of time series datasets and produces a single set of causal drivers. This approach uses the causal discovery algorithms PC1 or PCMCI that are implemented in the Tigramite Python package. These algorithms utilize conditional independence tests to infer parts of the causal graph. Our causal feature selection approach filters out causally-spurious links before passing the remaining causal features as inputs to ML models (Multiple linear regression, Random Forest) that predict the targets. We apply our framework to the statistical intensity prediction of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones (TC), for which it is often difficult to accurately choose drivers and their dimensionality reduction (time lags, vertical levels, and area-averaging). Using more stringent significance thresholds in the conditional independence tests helps eliminate spurious causal relationships, thus helping the ML model generalize better to unseen TC cases. M-PC1 with a reduced number of features outperforms M-PCMCI, non-causal ML, and other feature selection methods (lagged correlation, random), even slightly outperforming feature selection based on eXplainable Artificial Intelligence. The optimal causal drivers obtained from our causal feature selection help improve our understanding of underlying relationships and suggest new potential drivers of TC intensification.

The central space of a joint distribution $(\vX,Y)$ is the minimal subspace $\mathcal S$ such that $Y\perp\hspace{-2mm}\perp \vX \mid P_{\mathcal S}\vX$ where $P_{\mathcal S}$ is the projection onto $\mathcal S$. Sliced inverse regression (SIR), one of the most popular methods for estimating the central space, often performs poorly when the structural dimension $d=\operatorname{dim}\left( \mathcal S \right)$ is large (e.g., $\geqs 5$). In this paper, we demonstrate that the generalized signal-noise-ratio (gSNR) tends to be extremely small for a general multiple-index model when $d$ is large. Then we determine the minimax rate for estimating the central space over a large class of high dimensional distributions with a large structural dimension $d$ (i.e., there is no constant upper bound on $d$) in the low gSNR regime. This result not only extends the existing minimax rate results for estimating the central space of distributions with fixed $d$ to that with a large $d$, but also clarifies that the degradation in SIR performance is caused by the decay of signal strength. The technical tools developed here might be of independent interest for studying other central space estimation methods.

In this paper, we focus our attention on the high-dimensional double sparse linear regression, that is, a combination of element-wise and group-wise sparsity.To address this problem, we propose an IHT-style (iterative hard thresholding) procedure that dynamically updates the threshold at each step. We establish the matching upper and lower bounds for parameter estimation, showing the optimality of our proposal in the minimax sense. Coupled with a novel sparse group information criterion, we develop a fully adaptive procedure to handle unknown group sparsity and noise levels.We show that our adaptive procedure achieves optimal statistical accuracy with fast convergence. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of our method by comparing it with several state-of-the-art algorithms on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

We propose a new auto-regressive model for the statistical analysis of multivariate distributional time series. The data of interest consist of a collection of multiple series of probability measures supported over a bounded interval of the real line, and that are indexed by distinct time instants. The probability measures are modelled as random objects in the Wasserstein space. We establish the auto-regressive model in the tangent space at the Lebesgue measure by first centering all the raw measures so that their Fr\'echet means turn to be the Lebesgue measure. Using the theory of iterated random function systems, results on the existence, uniqueness and stationarity of the solution of such a model are provided. We also propose a consistent estimator for the model coefficient. In addition to the analysis of simulated data, the proposed model is illustrated with two real data sets made of observations from age distribution in different countries and bike sharing network in Paris. Finally, due to the positive and boundedness constraints that we impose on the model coefficients, the proposed estimator that is learned under these constraints, naturally has a sparse structure. The sparsity allows furthermore the application of the proposed model in learning a graph of temporal dependency from the multivariate distributional time series.

Factor analysis provides a canonical framework for imposing lower-dimensional structure such as sparse covariance in high-dimensional data. High-dimensional data on the same set of variables are often collected under different conditions, for instance in reproducing studies across research groups. In such cases, it is natural to seek to learn the shared versus condition-specific structure. Existing hierarchical extensions of factor analysis have been proposed, but face practical issues including identifiability problems. To address these shortcomings, we propose a class of SUbspace Factor Analysis (SUFA) models, which characterize variation across groups at the level of a lower-dimensional subspace. We prove that the proposed class of SUFA models lead to identifiability of the shared versus group-specific components of the covariance, and study their posterior contraction properties. Taking a Bayesian approach, these contributions are developed alongside efficient posterior computation algorithms. Our sampler fully integrates out latent variables, is easily parallelizable and has complexity that does not depend on sample size. We illustrate the methods through application to integration of multiple gene expression datasets relevant to immunology.

We give a simple characterization of which functions can be computed deterministically by anonymous processes in dynamic networks, depending on the number of leaders in the network. In addition, we provide efficient distributed algorithms for computing all such functions assuming minimal or no knowledge about the network. Each of our algorithms comes in two versions: one that terminates with the correct output and a faster one that stabilizes on the correct output without explicit termination. Notably, these are the first deterministic algorithms whose running times scale linearly with both the number of processes and a parameter of the network which we call "dynamic disconnectivity" (meaning that our dynamic networks do not necessarily have to be connected at all times). We also provide matching lower bounds, showing that all our algorithms are asymptotically optimal for any fixed number of leaders. While most of the existing literature on anonymous dynamic networks relies on classical mass-distribution techniques, our work makes use of a recently introduced combinatorial structure called "history tree", also developing its theory in new directions. Among other contributions, our results make definitive progress on two popular fundamental problems for anonymous dynamic networks: leaderless Average Consensus (i.e., computing the mean value of input numbers distributed among the processes) and multi-leader Counting (i.e., determining the exact number of processes in the network). In fact, our approach unifies and improves upon several independent lines of research on anonymous networks, including Nedic et al., IEEE Trans. Automat. Contr. 2009; Olshevsky, SIAM J. Control Optim. 2017; Kowalski-Mosteiro, ICALP 2019, SPAA 2021; Di Luna-Viglietta, FOCS 2022.

Bayesian variable selection methods are powerful techniques for fitting and inferring on sparse high-dimensional linear regression models. However, many are computationally intensive or require restrictive prior distributions on model parameters. In this paper, we proposed a computationally efficient and powerful Bayesian approach for sparse high-dimensional linear regression. Minimal prior assumptions on the parameters are used through the use of plug-in empirical Bayes estimates of hyperparameters. Efficient maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation is completed through a Parameter-Expanded Expectation-Conditional-Maximization (PX-ECM) algorithm. The PX-ECM results in a robust computationally efficient coordinate-wise optimization, which adjusts for the impact of other predictor variables. The completion of the E-step uses an approach motivated by the popular two-groups approach to multiple testing. The result is a PaRtitiOned empirical Bayes Ecm (PROBE) algorithm applied to sparse high-dimensional linear regression, which can be completed using one-at-a-time or all-at-once type optimization. We compare the empirical properties of PROBE to comparable approaches with numerous simulation studies and an analysis of cancer cell lines drug response study. The proposed approach is implemented in the R package probe.

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.

The Bayesian paradigm has the potential to solve core issues of deep neural networks such as poor calibration and data inefficiency. Alas, scaling Bayesian inference to large weight spaces often requires restrictive approximations. In this work, we show that it suffices to perform inference over a small subset of model weights in order to obtain accurate predictive posteriors. The other weights are kept as point estimates. This subnetwork inference framework enables us to use expressive, otherwise intractable, posterior approximations over such subsets. In particular, we implement subnetwork linearized Laplace: We first obtain a MAP estimate of all weights and then infer a full-covariance Gaussian posterior over a subnetwork. We propose a subnetwork selection strategy that aims to maximally preserve the model's predictive uncertainty. Empirically, our approach is effective compared to ensembles and less expressive posterior approximations over full networks.