Motivated by applications in personalized medicine and individualized policy making, there is a growing interest in techniques for quantifying treatment effect heterogeneity in terms of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). Some of the most prominent methods for CATE estimation developed in recent years are T-Learner, DR-Learner and R-Learner. The latter two were designed to improve on the former by being Neyman-orthogonal. However, the relations between them remain unclear, and likewise does the literature remain vague on whether these learners converge to a useful quantity or (functional) estimand when the underlying optimization procedure is restricted to a class of functions that does not include the CATE. In this article, we provide insight into these questions by discussing DR-learner and R-learner as special cases of a general class of Neyman-orthogonal learners for the CATE, for which we moreover derive oracle bounds. Our results shed light on how one may construct Neyman-orthogonal learners with desirable properties, on when DR-learner may be preferred over R-learner (and vice versa), and on novel learners that may sometimes be preferable to either of these. Theoretical findings are confirmed using results from simulation studies on synthetic data, as well as an application in critical care medicine.
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We study various novel complexity measures for two-sided matching mechanisms, applied to the two canonical strategyproof matching mechanisms, Deferred Acceptance (DA) and Top Trading Cycles (TTC). Our metrics are designed to capture the complexity of various structural (rather than computational) concerns, in particular ones of recent interest from economics. We consider a canonical, flexible approach to formalizing our questions: define a protocol or data structure performing some task, and bound the number of bits that it requires. Our results apply this approach to four questions of general interest; for matching applicants to institutions, we ask: (1) How can one applicant affect the outcome matching? (2) How can one applicant affect another applicant's set of options? (3) How can the outcome matching be represented / communicated? (4) How can the outcome matching be verified? We prove that DA and TTC are comparable in complexity under questions (1) and (4), giving new tight lower-bound constructions and new verification protocols. Under questions (2) and (3), we prove that TTC is more complex than DA. For question (2), we prove this by giving a new characterization of which institutions are removed from each applicant's set of options when a new applicant is added in DA; this characterization may be of independent interest. For question (3), our result gives lower bounds proving the tightness of existing constructions for TTC. This shows that the relationship between the matching and the priorities is more complex in TTC than in DA, formalizing previous intuitions from the economics literature. Together, our results complement recent work that models the complexity of observing strategyproofness and shows that DA is more complex than TTC. This emphasizes that diverse considerations must factor into gauging the complexity of matching mechanisms.
Treatment effect estimation is of high-importance for both researchers and practitioners across many scientific and industrial domains. The abundance of observational data makes them increasingly used by researchers for the estimation of causal effects. However, these data suffer from biases, from several weaknesses, leading to inaccurate causal effect estimations, if not handled properly. Therefore, several machine learning techniques have been proposed, most of them focusing on leveraging the predictive power of neural network models to attain more precise estimation of causal effects. In this work, we propose a new methodology, named Nearest Neighboring Information for Causal Inference (NNCI), for integrating valuable nearest neighboring information on neural network-based models for estimating treatment effects. The proposed NNCI methodology is applied to some of the most well established neural network-based models for treatment effect estimation with the use of observational data. Numerical experiments and analysis provide empirical and statistical evidence that the integration of NNCI with state-of-the-art neural network models leads to considerably improved treatment effect estimations on a variety of well-known challenging benchmarks.
Computing systems have shifted towards highly parallel and heterogeneous architectures to tackle the challenges imposed by limited power budgets. These architectures must be supported by novel power management paradigms addressing the increasing design size, parallelism, and heterogeneity while ensuring high accuracy and low overhead. In this work, we propose a systematic, automated, and architecture-agnostic approach to accurate and lightweight DVFS-aware statistical power modeling of the CPU and GPU sub-systems of a heterogeneous platform, driven by the sub-systems' local performance monitoring counters (PMCs). Counter selection is guided by a generally applicable statistical method that identifies the minimal subsets of counters robustly correlating to power dissipation. Based on the selected counters, we train a set of lightweight, linear models characterizing each sub-system over a range of frequencies. Such models compose a lookup-table-based system-level model that efficiently captures the non-linearity of power consumption, showing desirable responsiveness and decomposability. We validate the system-level model on real hardware by measuring the total energy consumption of an NVIDIA Jetson AGX Xavier platform over a set of benchmarks. The resulting average estimation error is 1.3%, with a maximum of 3.1%. Furthermore, the model shows a maximum evaluation runtime of 500 ns, thus implying a negligible impact on system utilization and applicability to online dynamic power management (DPM).
Artistic pieces can be studied from several perspectives, one example being their reception among readers over time. In the present work, we approach this interesting topic from the standpoint of literary works, particularly assessing the task of predicting whether a book will become a best seller. Dissimilarly from previous approaches, we focused on the full content of books and considered visualization and classification tasks. We employed visualization for the preliminary exploration of the data structure and properties, involving SemAxis and linear discriminant analyses. Then, to obtain quantitative and more objective results, we employed various classifiers. Such approaches were used along with a dataset containing (i) books published from 1895 to 1924 and consecrated as best sellers by the Publishers Weekly Bestseller Lists and (ii) literary works published in the same period but not being mentioned in that list. Our comparison of methods revealed that the best-achieved result - combining a bag-of-words representation with a logistic regression classifier - led to an average accuracy of 0.75 both for the leave-one-out and 10-fold cross-validations. Such an outcome suggests that it is unfeasible to predict the success of books with high accuracy using only the full content of the texts. Nevertheless, our findings provide insights into the factors leading to the relative success of a literary work.
Recurrent events, including cardiovascular events, are commonly observed in biomedical studies. Researchers must understand the effects of various treatments on recurrent events and investigate the underlying mediation mechanisms by which treatments may reduce the frequency of recurrent events are crucial. Although causal inference methods for recurrent event data have been proposed, they cannot be used to assess mediation. This study proposed a novel methodology of causal mediation analysis that accommodates recurrent outcomes of interest in a given individual. A formal definition of causal estimands (direct and indirect effects) within a counterfactual framework is given, empirical expressions for these effects are identified. To estimate these effects, a semiparametric estimator with triple robustness against model misspecification was developed. The proposed methodology was demonstrated in a real-world application. The method was applied to measure the effects of two diabetes drugs on the recurrence of cardiovascular disease and to examine the mediating role of kidney function in this process.
Under two-phase designs, the outcome and several covariates and confounders are measured in the first phase, and a new predictor of interest, which may be costly to collect, can be measured on a subsample in the second phase, without incurring the costs of recruiting subjects. By using the information gathered in the first phase, the second-phase subsample can be selected to enhance the efficiency of testing and estimating the effect of the new predictor on the outcome. Past studies have focused on optimal two-phase sampling schemes for statistical inference on local ($\beta = o(1)$) effects of the predictor of interest. In this study, we propose an extension of the two-phase designs that employs an optimal sampling scheme for estimating predictor effects with pseudo conditional likelihood estimators in case-control studies. This approach is applicable to both local and non-local effects. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed sampling scheme through simulation studies and analysis of data from 170 patients hospitalized for treatment of COVID-19. The results show a significant improvement in the estimation of the parameter of interest.
In the recent literature on estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, each proposed method makes its own set of restrictive assumptions about the intervention's effects and which subpopulations to explicitly estimate. Moreover, the majority of the literature provides no mechanism to identify which subpopulations are the most affected--beyond manual inspection--and provides little guarantee on the correctness of the identified subpopulations. Therefore, we propose Treatment Effect Subset Scan (TESS), a new method for discovering which subpopulation in a randomized experiment is most significantly affected by a treatment. We frame this challenge as a pattern detection problem where we efficiently maximize a nonparametric scan statistic (a measure of the conditional quantile treatment effect) over subpopulations. Furthermore, we identify the subpopulation which experiences the largest distributional change as a result of the intervention, while making minimal assumptions about the intervention's effects or the underlying data generating process. In addition to the algorithm, we demonstrate that under the sharp null hypothesis of no treatment effect, the asymptotic Type I and II error can be controlled, and provide sufficient conditions for detection consistency--i.e., exact identification of the affected subpopulation. Finally, we validate the efficacy of the method by discovering heterogeneous treatment effects in simulations and in real-world data from a well-known program evaluation study.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Federated Learning (FL) is a decentralized machine-learning paradigm, in which a global server iteratively averages the model parameters of local users without accessing their data. User heterogeneity has imposed significant challenges to FL, which can incur drifted global models that are slow to converge. Knowledge Distillation has recently emerged to tackle this issue, by refining the server model using aggregated knowledge from heterogeneous users, other than directly averaging their model parameters. This approach, however, depends on a proxy dataset, making it impractical unless such a prerequisite is satisfied. Moreover, the ensemble knowledge is not fully utilized to guide local model learning, which may in turn affect the quality of the aggregated model. Inspired by the prior art, we propose a data-free knowledge distillation} approach to address heterogeneous FL, where the server learns a lightweight generator to ensemble user information in a data-free manner, which is then broadcasted to users, regulating local training using the learned knowledge as an inductive bias. Empirical studies powered by theoretical implications show that, our approach facilitates FL with better generalization performance using fewer communication rounds, compared with the state-of-the-art.
Over the past few years, we have seen fundamental breakthroughs in core problems in machine learning, largely driven by advances in deep neural networks. At the same time, the amount of data collected in a wide array of scientific domains is dramatically increasing in both size and complexity. Taken together, this suggests many exciting opportunities for deep learning applications in scientific settings. But a significant challenge to this is simply knowing where to start. The sheer breadth and diversity of different deep learning techniques makes it difficult to determine what scientific problems might be most amenable to these methods, or which specific combination of methods might offer the most promising first approach. In this survey, we focus on addressing this central issue, providing an overview of many widely used deep learning models, spanning visual, sequential and graph structured data, associated tasks and different training methods, along with techniques to use deep learning with less data and better interpret these complex models --- two central considerations for many scientific use cases. We also include overviews of the full design process, implementation tips, and links to a plethora of tutorials, research summaries and open-sourced deep learning pipelines and pretrained models, developed by the community. We hope that this survey will help accelerate the use of deep learning across different scientific domains.
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