Exchangeability concerning a continuous exposure, X, implies no confounding bias when identifying average exposure effects of X, AEE(X). When X is measured with error (Xep), two challenges arise in identifying AEE(X). Firstly, exchangeability regarding Xep does not equal exchangeability regarding X. Secondly, the non-differential error assumption (NDEA) could be overly stringent in practice. To address them, this article proposes unifying exchangeability and exposure and confounder measurement errors with three novel concepts. The first, Probabilistic Exchangeability (PE), states that the outcomes of those with Xep=e are probabilistically exchangeable with the outcomes of those truly exposed to X=eT. The relationship between AEE(Xep) and AEE(X) in risk difference and ratio scales is mathematically expressed as a probabilistic certainty, termed exchangeability probability (Pe). Squared Pe (Pe2) quantifies the extent to which AEE(Xep) differs from AEE(X) due to exposure measurement error through mechanisms not akin to confounding mechanisms. The coefficient of determination (R2) in the regression of Xep against X may sometimes be sufficient to measure Pe2. The second concept, Emergent Pseudo Confounding (EPC), describes the bias introduced by exposure measurement error through mechanisms akin to confounding mechanisms. PE requires controlling for EPC, which is weaker than NDEA. The third, Emergent Confounding, describes when bias due to confounder measurement error arises. Adjustment for E(P)C can be performed like confounding adjustment. This paper provides maximum insight into when AEE(Xep) is an appropriate surrogate of AEE(X) and how to measure the difference between these two. Differential errors could be addressed and may not compromise causal inference.
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The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) has demonstrated promising progress in solving logical reasoning tasks effectively. Several recent approaches have proposed to change the role of the LLM from the reasoner into a translator between natural language statements and symbolic representations which are then sent to external symbolic solvers to resolve. This paradigm has established the current state-of-the-art result in logical reasoning (i.e., deductive reasoning). However, it remains unclear whether the variance in performance of these approaches stems from the methodologies employed or the specific symbolic solvers utilized. There is a lack of consistent comparison between symbolic solvers and how they influence the overall reported performance. This is important, as each symbolic solver also has its own input symbolic language, presenting varying degrees of challenge in the translation process. To address this gap, we perform experiments on 3 deductive reasoning benchmarks with LLMs augmented with widely used symbolic solvers: Z3, Pyke, and Prover9. The tool-executable rates of symbolic translation generated by different LLMs exhibit a near 50% performance variation. This highlights a significant difference in performance rooted in very basic choices of tools. The almost linear correlation between the executable rate of translations and the accuracy of the outcomes from Prover9 highlight a strong alignment between LLMs ability to translate into Prover9 symbolic language, and the correctness of those translations.
We consider the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from purely observational data in the bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR), where some invalid instruments, as well as unmeasured confounding, usually exist. To address this problem, most existing methods attempt to find proper valid instrumental variables (IVs) for the target causal effect by expert knowledge or by assuming that the causal model is a one-directional MR model. As such, in this paper, we first theoretically investigate the identification of the bi-directional MR from observational data. In particular, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions under which valid IV sets are correctly identified such that the bi-directional MR model is identifiable, including the causal directions of a pair of phenotypes (i.e., the treatment and outcome). Moreover, based on the identification theory, we develop a cluster fusion-like method to discover valid IV sets and estimate the causal effects of interest. We theoretically demonstrate the correctness of the proposed algorithm. Experimental results show the effectiveness of our method for estimating causal effects in bi-directional MR.
Automated Vehicle (AV) validation based on simulated testing requires unbiased evaluation and high efficiency. One effective solution is to increase the exposure to risky rare events while reweighting the probability measure. However, characterizing the distribution of risky events is particularly challenging due to the paucity of samples and the temporality of continuous scenario variables. To solve it, we devise a method to represent, generate, and reweight the distribution of risky rare events. We decompose the temporal evolution of continuous variables into distribution components based on conditional probability. By introducing the Risk Indicator Function, the distribution of risky rare events is theoretically precipitated out of naturalistic driving distribution. This targeted distribution is practically generated via Normalizing Flow, which achieves exact and tractable probability evaluation of intricate distribution. The rare event distribution is then demonstrated as the advantageous Importance Sampling distribution. We also promote the technique of temporal Importance Sampling. The combined method, named as TrimFlow, is executed to estimate the collision rate of Car-following scenarios as a tentative practice. The results showed that sampling background vehicle maneuvers from rare event distribution could evolve testing scenarios to hazardous states. TrimFlow reduced 86.1% of tests compared to generating testing scenarios according to their exposure in the naturalistic driving environment. In addition, the TrimFlow method is not limited to one specific type of functional scenario.
Recently, perception task based on Bird's-Eye View (BEV) representation has drawn more and more attention, and BEV representation is promising as the foundation for next-generation Autonomous Vehicle (AV) perception. However, most existing BEV solutions either require considerable resources to execute on-vehicle inference or suffer from modest performance. This paper proposes a simple yet effective framework, termed Fast-BEV , which is capable of performing faster BEV perception on the on-vehicle chips. Towards this goal, we first empirically find that the BEV representation can be sufficiently powerful without expensive transformer based transformation nor depth representation. Our Fast-BEV consists of five parts, We novelly propose (1) a lightweight deployment-friendly view transformation which fast transfers 2D image feature to 3D voxel space, (2) an multi-scale image encoder which leverages multi-scale information for better performance, (3) an efficient BEV encoder which is particularly designed to speed up on-vehicle inference. We further introduce (4) a strong data augmentation strategy for both image and BEV space to avoid over-fitting, (5) a multi-frame feature fusion mechanism to leverage the temporal information. Through experiments, on 2080Ti platform, our R50 model can run 52.6 FPS with 47.3% NDS on the nuScenes validation set, exceeding the 41.3 FPS and 47.5% NDS of the BEVDepth-R50 model and 30.2 FPS and 45.7% NDS of the BEVDet4D-R50 model. Our largest model (R101@900x1600) establishes a competitive 53.5% NDS on the nuScenes validation set. We further develop a benchmark with considerable accuracy and efficiency on current popular on-vehicle chips. The code is released at: //github.com/Sense-GVT/Fast-BEV.
Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) has gained increasing attention over recent years and many approaches have emerged to advance their development. The remarkable achievements of foundation models have shaped the challenges and proposed methods for VLN research. In this survey, we provide a top-down review that adopts a principled framework for embodied planning and reasoning, and emphasizes the current methods and future opportunities leveraging foundation models to address VLN challenges. We hope our in-depth discussions could provide valuable resources and insights: on one hand, to milestone the progress and explore opportunities and potential roles for foundation models in this field, and on the other, to organize different challenges and solutions in VLN to foundation model researchers.
In recent years, with the rapid advancements in large language models (LLMs), achieving excellent empathetic response capability has become a crucial prerequisite. Consequently, managing and understanding large-scale video datasets has gained increasing importance. However, empathetic data are typically trained without any quality selection, leading to inefficient data usage and wasted computational resources. Additionally, using raw data can result in low performance in empathetic dialogues. In this work, we present Efficient-Empathy, a sensibility and rationality score-based data selection algorithm that automatically selects sensibility and rationality data while discarding low-quality data. With only the sensibility data (59% of the full dataset), our trained sensibility model efficiently achieves state-of-the-art (SoTA) performance. Furthermore, with multiple data selection hyperparameters, the sensibility model demonstrates SoTA performance, showcasing the robustness of our method. By integrating sensibility and rationality data with a MoE structure, we achieve even higher performance, demonstrating the effectiveness of our Efficient-Empathy algorithm.
This study explores how sentence types affect the Lombard effect and intelligibility enhancement, focusing on comparisons between natural and grid sentences. Using the Lombard Chinese-TIMIT (LCT) corpus and the Enhanced MAndarin Lombard Grid (EMALG) corpus, we analyze changes in phonetic and acoustic features across different noise levels. Our results show that grid sentences produce more pronounced Lombard effects than natural sentences. Then, we develop and test a normal-to-Lombard conversion model, trained separately on LCT and EMALG corpora. Through subjective and objective evaluations, natural sentences are superior in maintaining speech quality in intelligibility enhancement. In contrast, grid sentences could provide superior intelligibility due to the more pronounced Lombard effect. This study provides a valuable perspective on enhancing speech communication in noisy environments.
Causal inference has shown potential in enhancing the predictive accuracy, fairness, robustness, and explainability of Natural Language Processing (NLP) models by capturing causal relationships among variables. The emergence of generative Large Language Models (LLMs) has significantly impacted various NLP domains, particularly through their advanced reasoning capabilities. This survey focuses on evaluating and improving LLMs from a causal view in the following areas: understanding and improving the LLMs' reasoning capacity, addressing fairness and safety issues in LLMs, complementing LLMs with explanations, and handling multimodality. Meanwhile, LLMs' strong reasoning capacities can in turn contribute to the field of causal inference by aiding causal relationship discovery and causal effect estimations. This review explores the interplay between causal inference frameworks and LLMs from both perspectives, emphasizing their collective potential to further the development of more advanced and equitable artificial intelligence systems.
An effective and efficient architecture performance evaluation scheme is essential for the success of Neural Architecture Search (NAS). To save computational cost, most of existing NAS algorithms often train and evaluate intermediate neural architectures on a small proxy dataset with limited training epochs. But it is difficult to expect an accurate performance estimation of an architecture in such a coarse evaluation way. This paper advocates a new neural architecture evaluation scheme, which aims to determine which architecture would perform better instead of accurately predict the absolute architecture performance. Therefore, we propose a \textbf{relativistic} architecture performance predictor in NAS (ReNAS). We encode neural architectures into feature tensors, and further refining the representations with the predictor. The proposed relativistic performance predictor can be deployed in discrete searching methods to search for the desired architectures without additional evaluation. Experimental results on NAS-Bench-101 dataset suggests that, sampling 424 ($0.1\%$ of the entire search space) neural architectures and their corresponding validation performance is already enough for learning an accurate architecture performance predictor. The accuracies of our searched neural architectures on NAS-Bench-101 and NAS-Bench-201 datasets are higher than that of the state-of-the-art methods and show the priority of the proposed method.
This work considers the question of how convenient access to copious data impacts our ability to learn causal effects and relations. In what ways is learning causality in the era of big data different from -- or the same as -- the traditional one? To answer this question, this survey provides a comprehensive and structured review of both traditional and frontier methods in learning causality and relations along with the connections between causality and machine learning. This work points out on a case-by-case basis how big data facilitates, complicates, or motivates each approach.
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