Interacting agents receive public information at no cost and flexibly acquire private information at a cost proportional to entropy reduction. When a policymaker provides more public information, agents acquire less private information, thus lowering information costs. Does more public information raise or reduce uncertainty faced by agents? Is it beneficial or detrimental to welfare? To address these questions, we examine the impacts of public information on flexible information acquisition in a linear-quadratic-Gaussian game with arbitrary quadratic material welfare. More public information raises uncertainty if and only if the game exhibits strategic complementarity, which can be harmful to welfare. However, when agents acquire a large amount of information, more provision of public information increases welfare through a substantial reduction in the cost of information. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for welfare to increase with public information and identify optimal public information disclosure, which is either full or partial disclosure depending upon the welfare function and the slope of the best response.
Health-related rumors spreading online during a public crisis may pose a serious threat to people's well-being. Existing crisis informatics research lacks in-depth insights into the characteristics of health rumors and the efforts to debunk them on social media in a pandemic. To fill this gap, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of four months of rumor-related online discussion during COVID-19 on Weibo, a Chinese microblogging site. Results suggest that the dread (cause fear) type of health rumors provoked significantly more discussions and lasted longer than the wish (raise hope) type. We further explore how four kinds of social media users (i.e., government, media, organization, and individual) combat health rumors, and identify their preferred way of sharing debunking information and the key rhetoric strategies used in the process. We examine the relationship between debunking and rumor discussions using a Granger causality approach, and show the efficacy of debunking in suppressing rumor discussions, which is time-sensitive and varies across rumor types and debunkers. Our results can provide insights into crisis informatics and risk management on social media in pandemic settings.
Flexible grid Optical Networks provide efficient spectrum utilization by employing the mechanisms to provide flexibility in the optical channel (spectrum slot) sizes. One of the research problems in Flexible grid Optical Networks is their survivability against failure. On the other hand, p-Cycles have not found practical use due to the significant compute time required for finding optimal configuration for the size of networks seen in real-life. Therefore, for real-time scenarios, we can write heuristics which can assign protection to the new working paths without disturbing the existing traffic on all the other routes in flexible grid networks. The provisioning of protection to each link or path of the lightpath requests can be done using Dynamic Cycles (D-Cycles) or Dynamic Shared Backup Resource Protection (D-SBRP). However, protecting each link or path can lead to the wastage of the resources in the network.
Deep neural networks (DNN) have made impressive progress in the interpretation of image data, so that it is conceivable and to some degree realistic to use them in safety critical applications like automated driving. From an ethical standpoint, the AI algorithm should take into account the vulnerability of objects or subjects on the street that ranges from "not at all", e.g. the road itself, to "high vulnerability" of pedestrians. One way to take this into account is to define the cost of confusion of one semantic category with another and use cost-based decision rules for the interpretation of probabilities, which are the output of DNNs. However, it is an open problem how to define the cost structure, who should be in charge to do that, and thereby define what AI-algorithms will actually "see". As one possible answer, we follow a participatory approach and set up an online survey to ask the public to define the cost structure. We present the survey design and the data acquired along with an evaluation that also distinguishes between perspective (car passenger vs. external traffic participant) and gender. Using simulation based $F$-tests, we find highly significant differences between the groups. These differences have consequences on the reliable detection of pedestrians in a safety critical distance to the self-driving car. We discuss the ethical problems that are related to this approach and also discuss the problems emerging from human-machine interaction through the survey from a psychological point of view. Finally, we include comments from industry leaders in the field of AI safety on the applicability of survey based elements in the design of AI functionalities in automated driving.
Wireless sensor networks are among the most promising technologies of the current era because of their small size, lower cost, and ease of deployment. With the increasing number of wireless sensors, the probability of generating missing data also rises. This incomplete data could lead to disastrous consequences if used for decision-making. There is rich literature dealing with this problem. However, most approaches show performance degradation when a sizable amount of data is lost. Inspired by the emerging field of graph signal processing, this paper performs a new study of a Sobolev reconstruction algorithm in wireless sensor networks. Experimental comparisons on several publicly available datasets demonstrate that the algorithm surpasses multiple state-of-the-art techniques by a maximum margin of 54%. We further show that this algorithm consistently retrieves the missing data even during massive data loss situations.
We present a systematic refactoring of the conventional treatment of privacy analyses, basing it on mathematical concepts from the framework of Quantitative Information Flow (QIF). The approach we suggest brings three principal advantages: it is flexible, allowing for precise quantification and comparison of privacy risks for attacks both known and novel; it can be computationally tractable for very large, longitudinal datasets; and its results are explainable both to politicians and to the general public. We apply our approach to a very large case study: the Educational Censuses of Brazil, curated by the governmental agency INEP, which comprise over 90 attributes of approximately 50 million individuals released longitudinally every year since 2007. These datasets have only very recently (2018-2021) attracted legislation to regulate their privacy -- while at the same time continuing to maintain the openness that had been sought in Brazilian society. INEP's reaction to that legislation was the genesis of our project with them. In our conclusions here we share the scientific, technical, and communication lessons we learned in the process.
Many deep reinforcement learning algorithms rely on simple forms of exploration, such as the additive action-noise often used in continuous control domains. Typically, the scaling factor of this action noise is chosen as a hyper-parameter and kept constant during training. In this paper, we analyze how the learned policy is impacted by the noise type, scale, and reducing of the scaling factor over time. We consider the two most prominent types of action-noise: Gaussian and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise, and perform a vast experimental campaign by systematically varying the noise type and scale parameter, and by measuring variables of interest like the expected return of the policy and the state space coverage during exploration. For the latter, we propose a novel state-space coverage measure $\operatorname{X}_{\mathcal{U}\text{rel}}$ that is more robust to boundary artifacts than previously proposed measures. Larger noise scales generally increase state space coverage. However, we found that increasing the space coverage using a larger noise scale is often not beneficial. On the contrary, reducing the noise-scale over the training process reduces the variance and generally improves the learning performance. We conclude that the best noise-type and scale are environment dependent, and based on our observations, derive heuristic rules for guiding the choice of the action noise as a starting point for further optimization.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown promising results on a broad spectrum of applications. Most empirical studies of GNNs directly take the observed graph as input, assuming the observed structure perfectly depicts the accurate and complete relations between nodes. However, graphs in the real world are inevitably noisy or incomplete, which could even exacerbate the quality of graph representations. In this work, we propose a novel Variational Information Bottleneck guided Graph Structure Learning framework, namely VIB-GSL, in the perspective of information theory. VIB-GSL advances the Information Bottleneck (IB) principle for graph structure learning, providing a more elegant and universal framework for mining underlying task-relevant relations. VIB-GSL learns an informative and compressive graph structure to distill the actionable information for specific downstream tasks. VIB-GSL deduces a variational approximation for irregular graph data to form a tractable IB objective function, which facilitates training stability. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the superior effectiveness and robustness of VIB-GSL.
The information bottleneck (IB) method is a technique for extracting information that is relevant for predicting the target random variable from the source random variable, which is typically implemented by optimizing the IB Lagrangian that balances the compression and prediction terms. However, the IB Lagrangian is hard to optimize, and multiple trials for tuning values of Lagrangian multiplier are required. Moreover, we show that the prediction performance strictly decreases as the compression gets stronger during optimizing the IB Lagrangian. In this paper, we implement the IB method from the perspective of supervised disentangling. Specifically, we introduce Disentangled Information Bottleneck (DisenIB) that is consistent on compressing source maximally without target prediction performance loss (maximum compression). Theoretical and experimental results demonstrate that our method is consistent on maximum compression, and performs well in terms of generalization, robustness to adversarial attack, out-of-distribution detection, and supervised disentangling.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Current deep learning research is dominated by benchmark evaluation. A method is regarded as favorable if it empirically performs well on the dedicated test set. This mentality is seamlessly reflected in the resurfacing area of continual learning, where consecutively arriving sets of benchmark data are investigated. The core challenge is framed as protecting previously acquired representations from being catastrophically forgotten due to the iterative parameter updates. However, comparison of individual methods is nevertheless treated in isolation from real world application and typically judged by monitoring accumulated test set performance. The closed world assumption remains predominant. It is assumed that during deployment a model is guaranteed to encounter data that stems from the same distribution as used for training. This poses a massive challenge as neural networks are well known to provide overconfident false predictions on unknown instances and break down in the face of corrupted data. In this work we argue that notable lessons from open set recognition, the identification of statistically deviating data outside of the observed dataset, and the adjacent field of active learning, where data is incrementally queried such that the expected performance gain is maximized, are frequently overlooked in the deep learning era. Based on these forgotten lessons, we propose a consolidated view to bridge continual learning, active learning and open set recognition in deep neural networks. Our results show that this not only benefits each individual paradigm, but highlights the natural synergies in a common framework. We empirically demonstrate improvements when alleviating catastrophic forgetting, querying data in active learning, selecting task orders, while exhibiting robust open world application where previously proposed methods fail.