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The training of high-dimensional regression models on comparably sparse data is an important yet complicated topic, especially when there are many more model parameters than observations in the data. From a Bayesian perspective, inference in such cases can be achieved with the help of shrinkage prior distributions, at least for generalized linear models. However, real-world data usually possess multilevel structures, such as repeated measurements or natural groupings of individuals, which existing shrinkage priors are not built to deal with. We generalize and extend one of these priors, the R2D2 prior by Zhang et al. (2020), to linear multilevel models leading to what we call the R2D2M2 prior. The proposed prior enables both local and global shrinkage of the model parameters. It comes with interpretable hyperparameters, which we show to be intrinsically related to vital properties of the prior, such as rates of concentration around the origin, tail behavior, and amount of shrinkage the prior exerts. We offer guidelines on how to select the prior's hyperparameters by deriving shrinkage factors and measuring the effective number of non-zero model coefficients. Hence, the user can readily evaluate and interpret the amount of shrinkage implied by a specific choice of hyperparameters. Finally, we perform extensive experiments on simulated and real data, showing that our inference procedure for the prior is well calibrated, has desirable global and local regularization properties and enables the reliable and interpretable estimation of much more complex Bayesian multilevel models than was previously possible.

Weakly supervised text classification methods typically train a deep neural classifier based on pseudo-labels. The quality of pseudo-labels is crucial to final performance but they are inevitably noisy due to their heuristic nature, so selecting the correct ones has a huge potential for performance boost. One straightforward solution is to select samples based on the softmax probability scores in the neural classifier corresponding to their pseudo-labels. However, we show through our experiments that such solutions are ineffective and unstable due to the erroneously high-confidence predictions from poorly calibrated models. Recent studies on the memorization effects of deep neural models suggest that these models first memorize training samples with clean labels and then those with noisy labels. Inspired by this observation, we propose a novel pseudo-label selection method LOPS that takes learning order of samples into consideration. We hypothesize that the learning order reflects the probability of wrong annotation in terms of ranking, and therefore, propose to select the samples that are learnt earlier. LOPS can be viewed as a strong performance-boost plug-in to most of existing weakly-supervised text classification methods, as confirmed in extensive experiments on four real-world datasets.

How can we collect the most useful labels to learn a model selection policy, when presented with arbitrary heterogeneous data streams? In this paper, we formulate this task as an online contextual active model selection problem, where at each round the learner receives an unlabeled data point along with a context. The goal is to output the best model for any given context without obtaining an excessive amount of labels. In particular, we focus on the task of selecting pre-trained classifiers, and propose a contextual active model selection algorithm (CAMS), which relies on a novel uncertainty sampling query criterion defined on a given policy class for adaptive model selection. In comparison to prior art, our algorithm does not assume a globally optimal model. We provide rigorous theoretical analysis for the regret and query complexity under both adversarial and stochastic settings. Our experiments on several benchmark classification datasets demonstrate the algorithm's effectiveness in terms of both regret and query complexity. Notably, to achieve the same accuracy, CAMS incurs less than 10% of the label cost when compared to the best online model selection baselines on CIFAR10.

Machine learning (ML) models are costly to train as they can require a significant amount of data, computational resources and technical expertise. Thus, they constitute valuable intellectual property that needs protection from adversaries wanting to steal them. Ownership verification techniques allow the victims of model stealing attacks to demonstrate that a suspect model was in fact stolen from theirs. Although a number of ownership verification techniques based on watermarking or fingerprinting have been proposed, most of them fall short either in terms of security guarantees (well-equipped adversaries can evade verification) or computational cost. A fingerprinting technique introduced at ICLR '21, Dataset Inference (DI), has been shown to offer better robustness and efficiency than prior methods. The authors of DI provided a correctness proof for linear (suspect) models. However, in the same setting, we prove that DI suffers from high false positives (FPs) -- it can incorrectly identify an independent model trained with non-overlapping data from the same distribution as stolen. We further prove that DI also triggers FPs in realistic, non-linear suspect models. We then confirm empirically that DI leads to FPs, with high confidence. Second, we show that DI also suffers from false negatives (FNs) -- an adversary can fool DI by regularising a stolen model's decision boundaries using adversarial training, thereby leading to an FN. To this end, we demonstrate that DI fails to identify a model adversarially trained from a stolen dataset -- the setting where DI is the hardest to evade. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings, the viability of fingerprinting-based ownership verification in general, and suggest directions for future work.

With reference to a single mediator context, this brief report presents a model-based strategy to estimate counterfactual direct and indirect effects when the response variable is ordinal and the mediator is binary. Postulating a logistic regression model for the mediator and a cumulative logit model for the outcome, the exact parametric formulation of the causal effects is presented, thereby extending previous work that only contained approximated results. The identification conditions are equivalent to the ones already established in the literature. The effects can be estimated by making use of standard statistical software and standard errors can be computed via a bootstrap algorithm. To make the methodology accessible, routines to implement the proposal in R are presented in the Appendix. A natural effect model coherent with the postulated data generating mechanism is also derived.

The discrete distribution of the length of longest increasing subsequences in random permutations of order $n$ is deeply related to random matrix theory. In a seminal work, Baik, Deift and Johansson provided an asymptotics in terms of the distribution of the largest level of the large matrix limit of GUE. As a numerical approximation, however, this asymptotics is inaccurate for small lengths and has a slow convergence rate, conjectured to be just of order $n^{-1/3}$. Here, we suggest a different type of approximation, based on Hayman's generalization of Stirling's formula. Such a formula gives already a couple of correct digits of the length distribution for $n$ as small as $20$ but allows numerical evaluations, with a uniform error of apparent order $n^{-3/4}$, for $n$ as large as $10^{12}$; thus closing the gap between a table of exact values (that has recently been compiled for up to $n=1000$) and the random matrix limit. Being much more efficient and accurate than Monte-Carlo simulations for larger $n$, the Stirling-type formula allows for a precise numerical understanding of the first few finite size correction terms to the random matrix limit, a study that has recently been initiated by Forrester and Mays, who visualized the form of the first such term. We display also the second one, of order $n^{-2/3}$, and derive (heuristically) expansions of expected value and variance of the length, exhibiting several more terms than previously known.

We propose the Terminating-Random Experiments (T-Rex) selector, a fast variable selection method for high-dimensional data. The T-Rex selector controls a user-defined target false discovery rate (FDR) while maximizing the number of selected variables. This is achieved by fusing the solutions of multiple early terminated random experiments. The experiments are conducted on a combination of the original predictors and multiple sets of randomly generated dummy predictors. A finite sample proof based on martingale theory for the FDR control property is provided. Numerical simulations confirm that the FDR is controlled at the target level while allowing for a high power. We prove under mild conditions that the dummies can be sampled from any univariate probability distribution with finite expectation and variance. The computational complexity of the proposed method is linear in the number of variables. The T-Rex selector outperforms state-of-the-art methods for FDR control on a simulated genome-wide association study (GWAS), while its sequential computation time is more than two orders of magnitude lower than that of the strongest benchmark methods. The open source R package TRexSelector containing the implementation of the T-Rex selector is available on CRAN.

Reinforcement learning has been demonstrated as a flexible and effective approach for learning a range of continuous control tasks, such as those used by robots to manipulate objects in their environment. But in robotics particularly, real-world rollouts are costly, and sample efficiency can be a major limiting factor when learning a new skill. In game environments, the use of world models has been shown to improve sample efficiency while still achieving good performance, especially when images or other rich observations are provided. In this project, we explore the use of a world model in a deformable robotic manipulation task, evaluating its effect on sample efficiency when learning to fold a cloth in simulation. We compare the use of RGB image observation with a feature space leveraging built-in structure (keypoints representing the cloth configuration), a common approach in robot skill learning, and compare the impact on task performance and learning efficiency with and without the world model. Our experiments showed that the usage of keypoints increased the performance of the best model on the task by 50%, and in general, the use of a learned or constructed reduced feature space improved task performance and sample efficiency. The use of a state transition predictor(MDN-RNN) in our world models did not have a notable effect on task performance.

Feature selection plays a vital role in promoting the classifier's performance. However, current methods ineffectively distinguish the complex interaction in the selected features. To further remove these hidden negative interactions, we propose a GA-like dynamic probability (GADP) method with mutual information which has a two-layer structure. The first layer applies the mutual information method to obtain a primary feature subset. The GA-like dynamic probability algorithm, as the second layer, mines more supportive features based on the former candidate features. Essentially, the GA-like method is one of the population-based algorithms so its work mechanism is similar to the GA. Different from the popular works which frequently focus on improving GA's operators for enhancing the search ability and lowering the converge time, we boldly abandon GA's operators and employ the dynamic probability that relies on the performance of each chromosome to determine feature selection in the new generation. The dynamic probability mechanism significantly reduces the parameter number in GA that making it easy to use. As each gene's probability is independent, the chromosome variety in GADP is more notable than in traditional GA, which ensures GADP has a wider search space and selects relevant features more effectively and accurately. To verify our method's superiority, we evaluate our method under multiple conditions on 15 datasets. The results demonstrate the outperformance of the proposed method. Generally, it has the best accuracy. Further, we also compare the proposed model to the popular heuristic methods like POS, FPA, and WOA. Our model still owns advantages over them.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.