Estimating the parameters of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is of fundamental importance in many scientific applications. While ODEs are typically approximated with deterministic algorithms, new research on probabilistic solvers indicates that they produce more reliable parameter estimates by better accounting for numerical errors. However, many ODE systems are highly sensitive to their parameter values. This produces deep local maxima in the likelihood function -- a problem which existing probabilistic solvers have yet to resolve. Here we present a novel probabilistic ODE likelihood approximation, DALTON, which can dramatically reduce parameter sensitivity by learning from noisy ODE measurements in a data-adaptive manner. Our approximation scales linearly in both ODE variables and time discretization points, and is applicable to ODEs with both partially-unobserved components and non-Gaussian measurement models. Several examples demonstrate that DALTON produces more accurate parameter estimates via numerical optimization than existing probabilistic ODE solvers, and even in some cases than the exact ODE likelihood itself.
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In high-dimensional data analysis, such as financial index tracking or biomedical applications, it is crucial to select the few relevant variables while maintaining control over the false discovery rate (FDR). In these applications, strong dependencies often exist among the variables (e.g., stock returns), which can undermine the FDR control property of existing methods like the model-X knockoff method or the T-Rex selector. To address this issue, we have expanded the T-Rex framework to accommodate overlapping groups of highly correlated variables. This is achieved by integrating a nearest neighbors penalization mechanism into the framework, which provably controls the FDR at the user-defined target level. A real-world example of sparse index tracking demonstrates the proposed method's ability to accurately track the S&P 500 index over the past 20 years based on a small number of stocks. An open-source implementation is provided within the R package TRexSelector on CRAN.
Embedding methods transform the knowledge graph into a continuous, low-dimensional space, facilitating inference and completion tasks. Existing methods are mainly divided into two types: translational distance models and semantic matching models. A key challenge in translational distance models is their inability to effectively differentiate between 'head' and 'tail' entities in graphs. To address this problem, a novel location-sensitive embedding (LSE) method has been developed. LSE innovatively modifies the head entity using relation-specific mappings, conceptualizing relations as linear transformations rather than mere translations. The theoretical foundations of LSE, including its representational capabilities and its connections to existing models, have been thoroughly examined. A more streamlined variant, LSE-d, which employs a diagonal matrix for transformations to enhance practical efficiency, is also proposed. Experiments conducted on four large-scale KG datasets for link prediction show that LSEd either outperforms or is competitive with state-of-the-art related works.
Heterogeneous Bayesian decentralized data fusion captures the set of problems in which two robots must combine two probability density functions over non-equal, but overlapping sets of random variables. In the context of multi-robot dynamic systems, this enables robots to take a "divide and conquer" approach to reason and share data over complementary tasks instead of over the full joint state space. For example, in a target tracking application, this allows robots to track different subsets of targets and share data on only common targets. This paper presents a framework by which robots can each use a local factor graph to represent relevant partitions of a complex global joint probability distribution, thus allowing them to avoid reasoning over the entirety of a more complex model and saving communication as well as computation costs. From a theoretical point of view, this paper makes contributions by casting the heterogeneous decentralized fusion problem in terms of a factor graph, analyzing the challenges that arise due to dynamic filtering, and then developing a new conservative filtering algorithm that ensures statistical correctness. From a practical point of view, we show how this framework can be used to represent different multi-robot applications and then test it with simulations and hardware experiments to validate and demonstrate its statistical conservativeness, applicability, and robustness to real-world challenges.
The loss function plays an important role in optimizing the performance of a learning system. A crucial aspect of the loss function is the assignment of sample weights within a mini-batch during loss computation. In the context of continual learning (CL), most existing strategies uniformly treat samples when calculating the loss value, thereby assigning equal weights to each sample. While this approach can be effective in certain standard benchmarks, its optimal effectiveness, particularly in more complex scenarios, remains underexplored. This is particularly pertinent in training "in the wild," such as with self-training, where labeling is automated using a reference model. This paper introduces the Online Meta-learning for Sample Importance (OMSI) strategy that approximates sample weights for a mini-batch in an online CL stream using an inner- and meta-update mechanism. This is done by first estimating sample weight parameters for each sample in the mini-batch, then, updating the model with the adapted sample weights. We evaluate OMSI in two distinct experimental settings. First, we show that OMSI enhances both learning and retained accuracy in a controlled noisy-labeled data stream. Then, we test the strategy in three standard benchmarks and compare it with other popular replay-based strategies. This research aims to foster the ongoing exploration in the area of self-adaptive CL.
Semantic communications have emerged as a new paradigm for improving communication efficiency by transmitting the semantic information of a source message that is most relevant to a desired task at the receiver. Most existing approaches typically utilize neural networks (NNs) to design end-to-end semantic communication systems, where NN-based semantic encoders output continuously distributed signals to be sent directly to the channel in an analog fashion. In this work, we propose a joint coding-modulation (JCM) framework for digital semantic communications by using variational autoencoder (VAE). Our approach learns the transition probability from source data to discrete constellation symbols, thereby avoiding the non-differentiability problem of digital modulation. Meanwhile, by jointly designing the coding and modulation process together, we can match the obtained modulation strategy with the operating channel condition. We also derive a matching loss function with information-theoretic meaning for end-to-end training. Experiments on image semantic communication validate the superiority of our proposed JCM framework over the state-of-the-art quantization-based digital semantic coding-modulation methods across a wide range of channel conditions, transmission rates, and modulation orders. Furthermore, its performance gap to analog semantic communication reduces as the modulation order increases while enjoying the hardware implementation convenience.
Slicing distribution selection has been used as an effective technique to improve the performance of parameter estimators based on minimizing sliced Wasserstein distance in applications. Previous works either utilize expensive optimization to select the slicing distribution or use slicing distributions that require expensive sampling methods. In this work, we propose an optimization-free slicing distribution that provides a fast sampling for the Monte Carlo estimation of expectation. In particular, we introduce the random-path projecting direction (RPD) which is constructed by leveraging the normalized difference between two random vectors following the two input measures. From the RPD, we derive the random-path slicing distribution (RPSD) and two variants of sliced Wasserstein, i.e., the Random-Path Projection Sliced Wasserstein (RPSW) and the Importance Weighted Random-Path Projection Sliced Wasserstein (IWRPSW). We then discuss the topological, statistical, and computational properties of RPSW and IWRPSW. Finally, we showcase the favorable performance of RPSW and IWRPSW in gradient flow and the training of denoising diffusion generative models on images.
The Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) algorithm can be applied to stochastic differential equations to estimate the drift and the diffusion function using data from a realization of the SDE. The SINDy algorithm requires sample data from each of these functions, which is typically estimated numerically from the data of the state. We analyze the performance of the previously proposed estimates for the drift and diffusion function to give bounds on the error for finite data. However, since this algorithm only converges as both the sampling frequency and the length of trajectory go to infinity, obtaining approximations within a certain tolerance may be infeasible. To combat this, we develop estimates with higher orders of accuracy for use in the SINDy framework. For a given sampling frequency, these estimates give more accurate approximations of the drift and diffusion functions, making SINDy a far more feasible system identification method.
The recent introduction of the Least-Squares Support Vector Regression (LS-SVR) algorithm for solving differential and integral equations has sparked interest. In this study, we expand the application of this algorithm to address systems of differential-algebraic equations (DAEs). Our work presents a novel approach to solving general DAEs in an operator format by establishing connections between the LS-SVR machine learning model, weighted residual methods, and Legendre orthogonal polynomials. To assess the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conduct simulations involving various DAE scenarios, such as nonlinear systems, fractional-order derivatives, integro-differential, and partial DAEs. Finally, we carry out comparisons between our proposed method and currently established state-of-the-art approaches, demonstrating its reliability and effectiveness.
With the widespread digitization of finance and the increasing popularity of cryptocurrencies, the sophistication of fraud schemes devised by cybercriminals is growing. Money laundering -- the movement of illicit funds to conceal their origins -- can cross bank and national boundaries, producing complex transaction patterns. The UN estimates 2-5\% of global GDP or \$0.8 - \$2.0 trillion dollars are laundered globally each year. Unfortunately, real data to train machine learning models to detect laundering is generally not available, and previous synthetic data generators have had significant shortcomings. A realistic, standardized, publicly-available benchmark is needed for comparing models and for the advancement of the area. To this end, this paper contributes a synthetic financial transaction dataset generator and a set of synthetically generated AML (Anti-Money Laundering) datasets. We have calibrated this agent-based generator to match real transactions as closely as possible and made the datasets public. We describe the generator in detail and demonstrate how the datasets generated can help compare different machine learning models in terms of their AML abilities. In a key way, using synthetic data in these comparisons can be even better than using real data: the ground truth labels are complete, whilst many laundering transactions in real data are never detected.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.
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