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Exploration is a crucial aspect of bandit and reinforcement learning algorithms. The uncertainty quantification necessary for exploration often comes from either closed-form expressions based on simple models or resampling and posterior approximations that are computationally intensive. We propose instead an approximate exploration methodology based on fitting only two point estimates, one tuned and one overfit. The approach, which we term the residual overfit method of exploration (ROME), drives exploration towards actions where the overfit model exhibits the most overfitting compared to the tuned model. The intuition is that overfitting occurs the most at actions and contexts with insufficient data to form accurate predictions of the reward. We justify this intuition formally from both a frequentist and a Bayesian information theoretic perspective. The result is a method that generalizes to a wide variety of models and avoids the computational overhead of resampling or posterior approximations. We compare ROME against a set of established contextual bandit methods on three datasets and find it to be one of the best performing.

Motivation: Alignment-free (AF) distance/similarity functions are a key tool for sequence analysis. Experimental studies on real datasets abound and, to some extent, there are also studies regarding their control of false positive rate (Type I error). However, assessment of their power, i.e., their ability to identify true similarity, has been limited to some members of the D2 family by experimental studies on short sequences, not adequate for current applications, where sequence lengths may vary considerably. Such a State of the Art is methodologically problematic, since information regarding a key feature such as power is either missing or limited. Results: By concentrating on a representative set of word-frequency based AF functions, we perform the first coherent and uniform evaluation of the power, involving also Type I error for completeness. Two Alternative models of important genomic features (CIS Regulatory Modules and Horizontal Gene Transfer), a wide range of sequence lengths from a few thousand to millions, and different values of k have been used. As a result, we provide a characterization of those AF functions that is novel and informative. Indeed, we identify weak and strong points of each function considered, which may be used as a guide to choose one for analysis tasks. Remarkably, of the fifteen functions that we have considered, only four stand out, with small differences between small and short sequence length scenarios. Finally, in order to encourage the use of our methodology for validation of future AF functions, the Big Data platform supporting it is public.

In this article we study the asymptotic behaviour of the least square estimator in a linear regression model based on random observation instances. We provide mild assumptions on the moments and dependence structure on the randomly spaced observations and the residuals under which the estimator is strongly consistent. In particular, we consider observation instances that are negatively superadditive dependent within each other, while for the residuals we merely assume that they are generated by some continuous function. In addition, we prove that the rate of convergence is proportional to the sampling rate $N$, and we complement our findings with a simulation study providing insights on finite sample properties.

We propose a novel modification of the standard upper confidence bound (UCB) method for the stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem which tunes the confidence bound of a given bandit based on its distance to others. Our UCB distance tuning (UCB-DT) formulation enables improved performance as measured by expected regret by preventing the MAB algorithm from focusing on non-optimal bandits which is a well-known deficiency of standard UCB. "Distance tuning" of the standard UCB is done using a proposed distance measure, which we call bandit distance, that is parameterizable and which therefore can be optimized to control the transition rate from exploration to exploitation based on problem requirements. We empirically demonstrate increased performance of UCB-DT versus many existing state-of-the-art methods which use the UCB formulation for the MAB problem. Our contribution also includes the development of a conceptual tool called the "Exploration Bargain Point" which gives insights into the tradeoffs between exploration and exploitation. We argue that the Exploration Bargain Point provides an intuitive perspective that is useful for comparatively analyzing the performance of UCB-based methods.

Simultaneous analysis of gene expression data and genetic variants is highly of interest, especially when the number of gene expressions and genetic variants are both greater than the sample size. Association of both causal genes and effective SNPs makes the use of sparse modeling of such genetic data sets, highly important. The high-dimensional sparse instrumental variables models are one of such useful association models, which models the simultaneous relation of the gene expressions and genetic variants with complex traits. From a Bayesian viewpoint, the sparsity can be favored using sparsity-enforcing priors such as spike-and-slab priors. A two-stage modification of the expectation propagation (EP) algorithm is proposed and examined for approximate inference in high-dimensional sparse instrumental variables models with spike-and-slab priors. This method is an adoption of the classical two-stage least squares method, to be used with the Bayes context. A simulation study is performed to examine the performance of the methods. The proposed method is applied to analysis of the mouse obesity data.

We study the classification problem for high-dimensional data with $n$ observations on $p$ features where the $p \times p$ covariance matrix $\Sigma$ exhibits a spiked eigenvalues structure and the vector $\zeta$, given by the difference between the whitened mean vectors, is sparse with sparsity at most $s$. We propose an adaptive classifier (adaptive with respect to the sparsity $s$) that first performs dimension reduction on the feature vectors prior to classification in the dimensionally reduced space, i.e., the classifier whitened the data, then screen the features by keeping only those corresponding to the $s$ largest coordinates of $\zeta$ and finally apply Fisher linear discriminant on the selected features. Leveraging recent results on entrywise matrix perturbation bounds for covariance matrices, we show that the resulting classifier is Bayes optimal whenever $n \rightarrow \infty$ and $s \sqrt{n^{-1} \ln p} \rightarrow 0$. Experimental results on real and synthetic data sets indicate that the proposed classifier is competitive with existing state-of-the-art methods while also selecting a smaller number of features.

Real-world applications of machine learning tools in high-stakes domains are often regulated to be fair, in the sense that the predicted target should satisfy some quantitative notion of parity with respect to a protected attribute. However, the exact tradeoff between fairness and accuracy with a real-valued target is not entirely clear. In this paper, we characterize the inherent tradeoff between statistical parity and accuracy in the regression setting by providing a lower bound on the error of any fair regressor. Our lower bound is sharp, algorithm-independent, and admits a simple interpretation: when the moments of the target differ between groups, any fair algorithm has to make an error on at least one of the groups. We further extend this result to give a lower bound on the joint error of any (approximately) fair algorithm, using the Wasserstein distance to measure the quality of the approximation. With our novel lower bound, we also show that the price paid by a fair regressor that does not take the protected attribute as input is less than that of a fair regressor with explicit access to the protected attribute. On the upside, we establish the first connection between individual fairness, accuracy parity, and the Wasserstein distance by showing that if a regressor is individually fair, it also approximately verifies the accuracy parity, where the gap is given by the Wasserstein distance between the two groups. Inspired by our theoretical results, we develop a practical algorithm for fair regression through the lens of representation learning, and conduct experiments on a real-world dataset to corroborate our findings.

In the present work, we describe a framework for modeling how models can be built that integrates concepts and methods from a wide range of fields. The information schism between the real-world and that which can be gathered and considered by any individual information processing agent is characterized and discussed, which is followed by the presentation of a series of the adopted requisites while developing the modeling approach. The issue of mapping from datasets into models is subsequently addressed, as well as some of the respectively implied difficulties and limitations. Based on these considerations, an approach to meta modeling how models are built is then progressively developed. First, the reference M^* meta model framework is presented, which relies critically in associating whole datasets and respective models in terms of a strict equivalence relation. Among the interesting features of this model are its ability to bridge the gap between data and modeling, as well as paving the way to an algebra of both data and models which can be employed to combine models into hierarchical manner. After illustrating the M* model in terms of patterns derived from regular lattices, the reported modeling approach continues by discussing how sampling issues, error and overlooked data can be addressed, leading to the $M^{<\epsilon>}$ variant. The situation in which the data needs to be represented in terms of respective probability densities is treated next, yielding the $M^{<\sigma>}$ meta model, which is then illustrated respectively to a real-world dataset (iris flowers data). Several considerations about how the developed framework can provide insights about data clustering, complexity, collaborative research, deep learning, and creativity are then presented, followed by overall conclusions.

Models used for many important engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial difference between the numerical solutions of the model and the observations of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is substantial interest in reducing model errors, particularly through understanding their physics and sources and leveraging the rapid growth of observational data. Here we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is first used to provide a noise-free analysis state of the system, which is then used in estimating the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, such as the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

We propose a Jacobi-style distributed algorithm to solve convex, quadratically constrained quadratic programs (QCQPs), which arise from a broad range of applications. While small to medium-sized convex QCQPs can be solved efficiently by interior-point algorithms, large-scale problems pose significant challenges to traditional algorithms that are mainly designed to be implemented on a single computing unit. The exploding volume of data (and hence, the problem size), however, may overwhelm any such units. In this paper, we propose a distributed algorithm for general, non-separable, large-scale convex QCQPs, using a novel idea of predictor-corrector primal-dual update with an adaptive step size. The algorithm enables distributed storage of data as well as parallel distributed computing. We establish the conditions for the proposed algorithm to converge to a global optimum, and implement our algorithm on a computer cluster with multiple nodes using Message Passing Interface (MPI). The numerical experiments are conducted on data sets of various scales from different applications, and the results show that our algorithm exhibits favorable scalability for solving large-scale problems.