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We study the trace reconstruction problem for spider graphs. Let $n$ be the number of nodes of a spider and $d$ be the length of each leg, and suppose that we are given independent traces of the spider from a deletion channel in which each non-root node is deleted with probability $q$. This is a natural generalization of the string trace reconstruction problem in theoretical computer science, which corresponds to the special case where the spider has one leg. In the regime where $d\ge \log_{1/q}(n)$, the problem can be reduced to the vanilla string trace reconstruction problem. We thus study the more interesting regime $d\le \log_{1/q}(n)$, in which entire legs of the spider are deleted with non-negligible probability. We describe an algorithm that reconstructs spiders with high probability using $\exp\left(\mathcal{O}\left(\frac{(nq^d)^{1/3}}{d^{1/3}}(\log n)^{2/3}\right)\right)$ traces. Our algorithm works for all deletion probabilities $q\in(0,1)$.

This work considers Gaussian process interpolation with a periodized version of the Mat{\'e}rn covariance function (Stein, 1999, Section 6.7) with Fourier coefficients $\phi$($\alpha$^2 + j^2)^(--$\nu$--1/2). Convergence rates are studied for the joint maximum likelihood estimation of $\nu$ and $\phi$ when the data is sampled according to the model. The mean integrated squared error is also analyzed with fixed and estimated parameters, showing that maximum likelihood estimation yields asymptotically the same error as if the ground truth was known. Finally, the case where the observed function is a ''deterministic'' element of a continuous Sobolev space is also considered, suggesting that bounding assumptions on some parameters can lead to different estimates.

Training models on data obtained from randomized experiments is ideal for making good decisions. However, randomized experiments are often time-consuming, expensive, risky, infeasible or unethical to perform, leaving decision makers little choice but to rely on observational data collected under historical policies when training models. This opens questions regarding not only which decision-making policies would perform best in practice, but also regarding the impact of different data collection protocols on the performance of various policies trained on the data, or the robustness of policy performance with respect to changes in problem characteristics such as action- or reward- specific delays in observing outcomes. We aim to answer such questions for the problem of optimizing sales channel allocations at LinkedIn, where sales accounts (leads) need to be allocated to one of three channels, with the goal of maximizing the number of successful conversions over a period of time. A key problem feature constitutes the presence of stochastic delays in observing allocation outcomes, whose distribution is both channel- and outcome- dependent. We built a discrete-time simulation that can handle our problem features and used it to evaluate: a) a historical rule-based policy; b) a supervised machine learning policy (XGBoost); and c) multi-armed bandit (MAB) policies, under different scenarios involving: i) data collection used for training (observational vs randomized); ii) lead conversion scenarios; iii) delay distributions. Our simulation results indicate that LinUCB, a simple MAB policy, consistently outperforms the other policies, achieving a 18-47% lift relative to a rule-based policy

Single particle cryo-electron microscopy has become a critical tool in structural biology over the last decade, able to achieve atomic scale resolution in three dimensional models from hundreds of thousands of (noisy) two-dimensional projection views of particles frozen at unknown orientations. This is accomplished by using a suite of software tools to (i) identify particles in large micrographs, (ii) obtain low-resolution reconstructions, (iii) refine those low-resolution structures, and (iv) finally match the obtained electron scattering density to the constituent atoms that make up the macromolecule or macromolecular complex of interest. Here, we focus on the second stage of the reconstruction pipeline: obtaining a low resolution model from picked particle images. Our goal is to create an algorithm that is capable of ab initio reconstruction from small data sets (on the order of a few thousand selected particles). More precisely, we seek an algorithm that is robust, automatic, able to assess particle quality, and fast enough that it can potentially be used to assist in the assessment of the data being generated while the microscopy experiment is still underway.

Variational Bayesian posterior inference often requires simplifying approximations such as mean-field parametrisation to ensure tractability. However, prior work has associated the variational mean-field approximation for Bayesian neural networks with underfitting in the case of small datasets or large model sizes. In this work, we show that invariances in the likelihood function of over-parametrised models contribute to this phenomenon because these invariances complicate the structure of the posterior by introducing discrete and/or continuous modes which cannot be well approximated by Gaussian mean-field distributions. In particular, we show that the mean-field approximation has an additional gap in the evidence lower bound compared to a purpose-built posterior that takes into account the known invariances. Importantly, this invariance gap is not constant; it vanishes as the approximation reverts to the prior. We proceed by first considering translation invariances in a linear model with a single data point in detail. We show that, while the true posterior can be constructed from a mean-field parametrisation, this is achieved only if the objective function takes into account the invariance gap. Then, we transfer our analysis of the linear model to neural networks. Our analysis provides a framework for future work to explore solutions to the invariance problem.

Background: Instrumental variables (IVs) can be used to provide evidence as to whether a treatment X has a causal effect on an outcome Y. Even if the instrument Z satisfies the three core IV assumptions of relevance, independence and the exclusion restriction, further assumptions are required to identify the average causal effect (ACE) of X on Y. Sufficient assumptions for this include: homogeneity in the causal effect of X on Y; homogeneity in the association of Z with X; and no effect modification (NEM). Methods: We describe the NO Simultaneous Heterogeneity (NOSH) assumption, which requires the heterogeneity in the X-Y causal effect to be mean independent of (i.e., uncorrelated with) both Z and heterogeneity in the Z-X association. This happens, for example, if there are no common modifiers of the X-Y effect and the Z-X association, and the X-Y effect is additive linear. We illustrate NOSH using simulations and by re-examining selected published studies. Results: When NOSH holds, the Wald estimand equals the ACE even if both homogeneity assumptions and NEM (which we demonstrate to be special cases of - and therefore stronger than - NOSH) are violated. Conclusions: NOSH is sufficient for identifying the ACE using IVs. Since NOSH is weaker than existing assumptions for ACE identification, doing so may be more plausible than previously anticipated.

Domain generalization (DG), i.e., out-of-distribution generalization, has attracted increased interests in recent years. Domain generalization deals with a challenging setting where one or several different but related domain(s) are given, and the goal is to learn a model that can generalize to an unseen test domain. For years, great progress has been achieved. This paper presents the first review for recent advances in domain generalization. First, we provide a formal definition of domain generalization and discuss several related fields. Next, we thoroughly review the theories related to domain generalization and carefully analyze the theory behind generalization. Then, we categorize recent algorithms into three classes and present them in detail: data manipulation, representation learning, and learning strategy, each of which contains several popular algorithms. Third, we introduce the commonly used datasets and applications. Finally, we summarize existing literature and present some potential research topics for the future.

Semantic reconstruction of indoor scenes refers to both scene understanding and object reconstruction. Existing works either address one part of this problem or focus on independent objects. In this paper, we bridge the gap between understanding and reconstruction, and propose an end-to-end solution to jointly reconstruct room layout, object bounding boxes and meshes from a single image. Instead of separately resolving scene understanding and object reconstruction, our method builds upon a holistic scene context and proposes a coarse-to-fine hierarchy with three components: 1. room layout with camera pose; 2. 3D object bounding boxes; 3. object meshes. We argue that understanding the context of each component can assist the task of parsing the others, which enables joint understanding and reconstruction. The experiments on the SUN RGB-D and Pix3D datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing methods in indoor layout estimation, 3D object detection and mesh reconstruction.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.