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Software reliability estimation is one of most active area of research in software testing. Since recording of time between failures has often been too difficult to collect, software testing data now have commonly been recorded as test-case-wise in a discrete set up. Although there have many models that were developed to estimate software reliability, they were too restrictive in nature. We have developed a model using the size-biased concept which not only estimates the software reliability, but also estimates the total number of bugs present in the software. The model is highly flexible as it could provide the reliability estimates at the end of software testing and also at any future phase of software testing that could have been conducted in order to improve the software reliability. This flexibility is instrumental to find the stopping phase such that the software reliability achieves a desired optimum level (e.g., 95\%). In addition, we also provide a model extension which could be applied on grouped bugs in different regions of a software. We assessed the performance of our model via simulation study and found that each of the key parameters could be estimated with satisfactory level of accuracy. We also applied our model to two different software testing data sets. In the first model application we found that the conducted software testing was inefficient and a considerable amount of further testing is required to achieve a optimum reliability level. On the other hand, the application to second empirical data set has shown that the respective software was highly reliable with software reliability estimate 99.8\%. We anticipate that our novel modelling approach to estimate software reliability could be very useful for the users and can potentially be a key tool in the field of software reliability estimation.

This paper studies the sensitivity (or insensitivity) of a class of load balancing algorithms that achieve asymptotic zero-waiting in the sub-Halfin-Whitt regime, named LB-zero. Most existing results on zero-waiting load balancing algorithms assume the service time distribution is exponential. This paper establishes the {\em large-system insensitivity} of LB-zero for jobs whose service time follows a Coxian distribution with a finite number of phases. This result suggests that LB-zero achieves asymptotic zero-waiting for a large class of service time distributions, which is confirmed in our simulations. To prove this result, this paper develops a new technique, called "Iterative State-Space Peeling" (or ISSP for short). ISSP first identifies an iterative relation between the upper and lower bounds on the queue states and then proves that the system lives near the fixed point of the iterative bounds with a high probability. Based on ISSP, the steady-state distribution of the system is further analyzed by applying Stein's method in the neighborhood of the fixed point. ISSP, like state-space collapse in heavy-traffic analysis, is a general approach that may be used to study other complex stochastic systems.

The methodological development of this paper is motivated by the need to address the following scientific question: does the issuance of heat alerts prevent adverse health effects? Our goal is to address this question within a causal inference framework in the context of time series data. A key challenge is that causal inference methods require the overlap assumption to hold: each unit (i.e., a day) must have a positive probability of receiving the treatment (i.e., issuing a heat alert on that day). In our motivating example, the overlap assumption is often violated: the probability of issuing a heat alert on a cool day is zero. To overcome this challenge, we propose a stochastic intervention for time series data which is implemented via an incremental time-varying propensity score (ItvPS). The ItvPS intervention is executed by multiplying the probability of issuing a heat alert on day $t$ -- conditional on past information up to day $t$ -- by an odds ratio $\delta_t$. First, we introduce a new class of causal estimands that relies on the ItvPS intervention. We provide theoretical results to show that these causal estimands can be identified and estimated under a weaker version of the overlap assumption. Second, we propose nonparametric estimators based on the ItvPS and derive an upper bound for the variances of these estimators. Third, we extend this framework to multi-site time series using a meta-analysis approach. Fourth, we show that the proposed estimators perform well in terms of bias and root mean squared error via simulations. Finally, we apply our proposed approach to estimate the causal effects of increasing the probability of issuing heat alerts on each warm-season day in reducing deaths and hospitalizations among Medicare enrollees in $2,837$ U.S. counties.

A singularly perturbed parabolic problem of convection-diffusion type with a discontinuous initial condition is examined. An analytic function is identified which matches the discontinuity in the initial condition and also satisfies the homogenous parabolic differential equation associated with the problem. The difference between this analytical function and the solution of the parabolic problem is approximated numerically, using an upwind finite difference operator combined with an appropriate layer-adapted mesh. The numerical method is shown to be parameter-uniform. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the theoretical error bounds established in the paper.

The synthetic control method offers a way to estimate the effect of an aggregate intervention using weighted averages of untreated units to approximate the counterfactual outcome that the treated unit(s) would have experienced in the absence of the intervention. This method is useful for program evaluation and causal inference in observational studies. We introduce the software package \texttt{scpi} for estimation and inference using synthetic controls, implemented in \texttt{Python}, \texttt{R}, and \texttt{Stata}. For point estimation or prediction of treatment effects, the package offers an array of (possibly penalized) approaches leveraging the latest optimization methods. For uncertainty quantification, the package offers the prediction interval methods introduced by Cattaneo, Feng and Titiunik (2021) and Cattaneo, Feng, Palomba and Titiunik (2022). The discussion contains numerical illustrations and a comparison with other synthetic control software.

The greedy algorithm for monotone submodular function maximization subject to cardinality constraint is guaranteed to approximate the optimal solution to within a $1-1/e$ factor. Although it is well known that this guarantee is essentially tight in the worst case -- for greedy and in fact any efficient algorithm, experiments show that greedy performs better in practice. We observe that for many applications in practice, the empirical distribution of the budgets (i.e., cardinality constraints) is supported on a wide range, and moreover, all the existing hardness results in theory break under a large perturbation of the budget. To understand the effect of the budget from both algorithmic and hardness perspectives, we introduce a new notion of budget smoothed analysis. We prove that greedy is optimal for every budget distribution, and we give a characterization for the worst-case submodular functions. Based on these results, we show that on the algorithmic side, under realistic budget distributions, greedy and related algorithms enjoy provably better approximation guarantees, that hold even for worst-case functions, and on the hardness side, there exist hard functions that are fairly robust to all the budget distributions.

This paper studies the consistency and statistical inference of simulated Ising models in the high dimensional background. Our estimators are based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation (MCMC-MLE) method penalized by the Elastic-net. Under mild conditions that ensure a specific convergence rate of MCMC method, the $\ell_{1}$ consistency of Elastic-net-penalized MCMC-MLE is proved. We further propose a decorrelated score test based on the decorrelated score function and prove the asymptotic normality of the score function without the influence of many nuisance parameters under the assumption that accelerates the convergence of the MCMC method. The one-step estimator for a single parameter of interest is purposed by linearizing the decorrelated score function to solve its root, as well as its normality and confidence interval for the true value, therefore, be established. Finally, we use different algorithms to control the false discovery rate (FDR) via traditional p-values and novel e-values.

This paper considers identification and estimation of the causal effect of the time Z until a subject is treated on a survival outcome T. The treatment is not randomly assigned, T is randomly right censored by a random variable C and the time to treatment Z is right censored by min(T,C). The endogeneity issue is treated using an instrumental variable explaining Z and independent of the error term of the model. We study identification in a fully nonparametric framework. We show that our specification generates an integral equation, of which the regression function of interest is a solution. We provide identification conditions that rely on this identification equation. For estimation purposes, we assume that the regression function follows a parametric model. We propose an estimation procedure and give conditions under which the estimator is asymptotically normal. The estimators exhibit good finite sample properties in simulations. Our methodology is applied to find evidence supporting the efficacy of a therapy for burn-out.

Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.

We propose a new method of estimation in topic models, that is not a variation on the existing simplex finding algorithms, and that estimates the number of topics K from the observed data. We derive new finite sample minimax lower bounds for the estimation of A, as well as new upper bounds for our proposed estimator. We describe the scenarios where our estimator is minimax adaptive. Our finite sample analysis is valid for any number of documents (n), individual document length (N_i), dictionary size (p) and number of topics (K), and both p and K are allowed to increase with n, a situation not handled well by previous analyses. We complement our theoretical results with a detailed simulation study. We illustrate that the new algorithm is faster and more accurate than the current ones, although we start out with a computational and theoretical disadvantage of not knowing the correct number of topics K, while we provide the competing methods with the correct value in our simulations.