Empirical game-theoretic analysis (EGTA) is a general framework for reasoning about complex games using agent-based simulation. Data from simulating select strategy profiles is employed to estimate a cogent and tractable game model approximating the underlying game. To date, EGTA methodology has focused on game models in normal form; though the simulations play out in sequential observations and decisions over time, the game model abstracts away this temporal structure. Richer models of \textit{extensive-form games} (EFGs) provide a means to capture temporal patterns in action and information, using tree representations. We propose \textit{tree-exploiting EGTA} (TE-EGTA), an approach to incorporate EFG models into EGTA\@. TE-EGTA constructs game models that express observations and temporal organization of activity, albeit at a coarser grain than the underlying agent-based simulation model. The idea is to exploit key structure while maintaining tractability. We establish theoretically and experimentally that exploiting even a little temporal structure can vastly reduce estimation error in strategy-profile payoffs compared to the normal-form model. Further, we explore the implications of EFG models for iterative approaches to EGTA, where strategy spaces are extended incrementally. Our experiments on several game instances demonstrate that TE-EGTA can also improve performance in the iterative setting, as measured by the quality of equilibrium approximation as the strategy spaces are expanded.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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Mendelian randomization (MR) is an instrumental variable (IV) approach to infer causal relationships between exposures and outcomes with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary data. However, the multivariable inverse-variance weighting (IVW) approach, which serves as the foundation for most MR approaches, cannot yield unbiased causal effect estimates in the presence of many weak IVs. In this paper, we prove that the bias of the multivariable IVW estimate is a product of weak instrument and estimation error biases, where the latter is linearly composed of measurement error and confounder biases with a trade-off due to sample overlap among multiple GWAS cohorts. To address this problem, we propose a novel multivariable MR approach, MR using Bias-corrected Estimating Equation (MRBEE), which can infer unbiased causal relationships with many weak IVs. Asymptotic behaviors of multivariable IVW and MRBEE are investigated under moderate conditions, showing that MRBEE outperforms multivariable IVW in terms of unbiasedness and asymptotic validity. We apply MRBEE to examine myopia and confirm that schooling and driving time are causal factors for myopia. A novel locus of myopia is identified in the subsequent whole-genome pleiotropy test.
Given the enormous number of instructional videos available online, learning a diverse array of multi-step task models from videos is an appealing goal. We introduce a new pre-trained video model, VideoTaskformer, focused on representing the semantics and structure of instructional videos. We pre-train VideoTaskformer using a simple and effective objective: predicting weakly supervised textual labels for steps that are randomly masked out from an instructional video (masked step modeling). Compared to prior work which learns step representations locally, our approach involves learning them globally, leveraging video of the entire surrounding task as context. From these learned representations, we can verify if an unseen video correctly executes a given task, as well as forecast which steps are likely to be taken after a given step. We introduce two new benchmarks for detecting mistakes in instructional videos, to verify if there is an anomalous step and if steps are executed in the right order. We also introduce a long-term forecasting benchmark, where the goal is to predict long-range future steps from a given step. Our method outperforms previous baselines on these tasks, and we believe the tasks will be a valuable way for the community to measure the quality of step representations. Additionally, we evaluate VideoTaskformer on 3 existing benchmarks -- procedural activity recognition, step classification, and step forecasting -- and demonstrate on each that our method outperforms existing baselines and achieves new state-of-the-art performance.
Most of the literature on learning in games has focused on the restrictive setting where the underlying repeated game does not change over time. Much less is known about the convergence of no-regret learning algorithms in dynamic multiagent settings. In this paper, we characterize the convergence of optimistic gradient descent (OGD) in time-varying games. Our framework yields sharp convergence bounds for the equilibrium gap of OGD in zero-sum games parameterized on natural variation measures of the sequence of games, subsuming known results for static games. Furthermore, we establish improved second-order variation bounds under strong convexity-concavity, as long as each game is repeated multiple times. Our results also apply to time-varying general-sum multi-player games via a bilinear formulation of correlated equilibria, which has novel implications for meta-learning and for obtaining refined variation-dependent regret bounds, addressing questions left open in prior papers. Finally, we leverage our framework to also provide new insights on dynamic regret guarantees in static games.
As the issue of robustness in AI systems becomes vital, statistical learning techniques that are reliable even in presence of partly contaminated data have to be developed. Preference data, in the form of (complete) rankings in the simplest situations, are no exception and the demand for appropriate concepts and tools is all the more pressing given that technologies fed by or producing this type of data (e.g. search engines, recommending systems) are now massively deployed. However, the lack of vector space structure for the set of rankings (i.e. the symmetric group $\mathfrak{S}_n$) and the complex nature of statistics considered in ranking data analysis make the formulation of robustness objectives in this domain challenging. In this paper, we introduce notions of robustness, together with dedicated statistical methods, for Consensus Ranking the flagship problem in ranking data analysis, aiming at summarizing a probability distribution on $\mathfrak{S}_n$ by a median ranking. Precisely, we propose specific extensions of the popular concept of breakdown point, tailored to consensus ranking, and address the related computational issues. Beyond the theoretical contributions, the relevance of the approach proposed is supported by an experimental study.
High-dimensional data can often display heterogeneity due to heteroscedastic variance or inhomogeneous covariate effects. Penalized quantile and expectile regression methods offer useful tools to detect heteroscedasticity in high-dimensional data. The former is computationally challenging due to the non-smooth nature of the check loss, and the latter is sensitive to heavy-tailed error distributions. In this paper, we propose and study (penalized) robust expectile regression (retire), with a focus on iteratively reweighted $\ell_1$-penalization which reduces the estimation bias from $\ell_1$-penalization and leads to oracle properties. Theoretically, we establish the statistical properties of the retire estimator under two regimes: (i) low-dimensional regime in which $d \ll n$; (ii) high-dimensional regime in which $s\ll n\ll d$ with $s$ denoting the number of significant predictors. In the high-dimensional setting, we carefully characterize the solution path of the iteratively reweighted $\ell_1$-penalized retire estimation, adapted from the local linear approximation algorithm for folded-concave regularization. Under a mild minimum signal strength condition, we show that after as many as $\log(\log d)$ iterations the final iterate enjoys the oracle convergence rate. At each iteration, the weighted $\ell_1$-penalized convex program can be efficiently solved by a semismooth Newton coordinate descent algorithm. Numerical studies demonstrate the competitive performance of the proposed procedure compared with either non-robust or quantile regression based alternatives.
Conventionally, since the natural language action space is astronomical, approximate dynamic programming applied to dialogue generation involves policy improvement with action sampling. However, such a practice is inefficient for reinforcement learning (RL) because the eligible (high action value) responses are very sparse, and the greedy policy sustained by the random sampling is flabby. This paper shows that the performance of dialogue policy positively correlated with sampling size by theoretical and experimental. We introduce a novel dual-granularity Q-function to alleviate this limitation by exploring the most promising response category to intervene in the sampling. It extracts the actions following the grained hierarchy, which can achieve the optimum with fewer policy iterations. Our approach learns in the way of offline RL from multiple reward functions designed to recognize human emotional details. Empirical studies demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms the baseline methods. Further verification presents that ours can generate responses with higher expected rewards and controllability.
Convolutional neural networks (CNN) are the dominant deep neural network (DNN) architecture for computer vision. Recently, Transformer and multi-layer perceptron (MLP)-based models, such as Vision Transformer and MLP-Mixer, started to lead new trends as they showed promising results in the ImageNet classification task. In this paper, we conduct empirical studies on these DNN structures and try to understand their respective pros and cons. To ensure a fair comparison, we first develop a unified framework called SPACH which adopts separate modules for spatial and channel processing. Our experiments under the SPACH framework reveal that all structures can achieve competitive performance at a moderate scale. However, they demonstrate distinctive behaviors when the network size scales up. Based on our findings, we propose two hybrid models using convolution and Transformer modules. The resulting Hybrid-MS-S+ model achieves 83.9% top-1 accuracy with 63M parameters and 12.3G FLOPS. It is already on par with the SOTA models with sophisticated designs. The code and models will be made publicly available.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), which generalize deep neural networks to graph-structured data, have drawn considerable attention and achieved state-of-the-art performance in numerous graph related tasks. However, existing GNN models mainly focus on designing graph convolution operations. The graph pooling (or downsampling) operations, that play an important role in learning hierarchical representations, are usually overlooked. In this paper, we propose a novel graph pooling operator, called Hierarchical Graph Pooling with Structure Learning (HGP-SL), which can be integrated into various graph neural network architectures. HGP-SL incorporates graph pooling and structure learning into a unified module to generate hierarchical representations of graphs. More specifically, the graph pooling operation adaptively selects a subset of nodes to form an induced subgraph for the subsequent layers. To preserve the integrity of graph's topological information, we further introduce a structure learning mechanism to learn a refined graph structure for the pooled graph at each layer. By combining HGP-SL operator with graph neural networks, we perform graph level representation learning with focus on graph classification task. Experimental results on six widely used benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.
Graph convolutional networks (GCNs) have been successfully applied in node classification tasks of network mining. However, most of these models based on neighborhood aggregation are usually shallow and lack the "graph pooling" mechanism, which prevents the model from obtaining adequate global information. In order to increase the receptive field, we propose a novel deep Hierarchical Graph Convolutional Network (H-GCN) for semi-supervised node classification. H-GCN first repeatedly aggregates structurally similar nodes to hyper-nodes and then refines the coarsened graph to the original to restore the representation for each node. Instead of merely aggregating one- or two-hop neighborhood information, the proposed coarsening procedure enlarges the receptive field for each node, hence more global information can be learned. Comprehensive experiments conducted on public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method over the state-of-art methods. Notably, our model gains substantial improvements when only a few labeled samples are provided.
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