Two-part joint models for a longitudinal semicontinuous biomarker and a terminal event have been recently introduced based on frequentist estimation. The biomarker distribution is decomposed into a probability of positive value and the expected value among positive values. Shared random effects can represent the association structure between the biomarker and the terminal event. The computational burden increases compared to standard joint models with a single regression model for the biomarker. In this context, the frequentist estimation implemented in the R package frailtypack can be challenging for complex models (i.e., large number of parameters and dimension of the random effects). As an alternative, we propose a Bayesian estimation of two-part joint models based on the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) algorithm to alleviate the computational burden and fit more complex models. Our simulation studies confirm that INLA provides accurate approximation of posterior estimates and to reduced computation time and variability of estimates compared to frailtypack in the situations considered. We contrast the Bayesian and frequentist approaches in the analysis of two randomized cancer clinical trials (GERCOR and PRIME studies), where INLA has a reduced variability for the association between the biomarker and the risk of event. Moreover, the Bayesian approach was able to characterize subgroups of patients associated with different responses to treatment in the PRIME study. Our study suggests that the Bayesian approach using INLA algorithm enables to fit complex joint models that might be of interest in a wide range of clinical applications.
The light and soft characteristics of Buoyancy Assisted Lightweight Legged Unit (BALLU) robots have a great potential to provide intrinsically safe interactions in environments involving humans, unlike many heavy and rigid robots. However, their unique and sensitive dynamics impose challenges to obtaining robust control policies in the real world. In this work, we demonstrate robust sim-to-real transfer of control policies on the BALLU robots via system identification and our novel residual physics learning method, Environment Mimic (EnvMimic). First, we model the nonlinear dynamics of the actuators by collecting hardware data and optimizing the simulation parameters. Rather than relying on standard supervised learning formulations, we utilize deep reinforcement learning to train an external force policy to match real-world trajectories, which enables us to model residual physics with greater fidelity. We analyze the improved simulation fidelity by comparing the simulation trajectories against the real-world ones. We finally demonstrate that the improved simulator allows us to learn better walking and turning policies that can be successfully deployed on the hardware of BALLU.
Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for modeling real-valued nonlinear functions due to their flexibility and uncertainty quantification. However, the typical GP regression model suffers from several drawbacks: 1) Conventional GP inference scales $O(N^{3})$ with respect to the number of observations; 2) Updating a GP model sequentially is not trivial; and 3) Covariance kernels typically enforce stationarity constraints on the function, while GPs with non-stationary covariance kernels are often intractable to use in practice. To overcome these issues, we propose a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to fit infinite mixtures of GPs that capture non-stationary behavior while allowing for online, distributed inference. Our approach empirically improves performance over state-of-the-art methods for online GP estimation in the presence of non-stationarity in time-series data. To demonstrate the utility of our proposed online Gaussian process mixture-of-experts approach in applied settings, we show that we can sucessfully implement an optimization algorithm using online Gaussian process bandits.
The paper introduces an interactive machine learning mechanism to process the measurements of an uncertain, nonlinear dynamic process and hence advise an actuation strategy in real-time. For concept demonstration, a trajectory-following optimization problem of a Kinova robotic arm is solved using an integral reinforcement learning approach with guaranteed stability for slowly varying dynamics. The solution is implemented using a model-free value iteration process to solve the integral temporal difference equations of the problem. The performance of the proposed technique is benchmarked against that of another model-free high-order approach and is validated for dynamic payload and disturbances. Unlike its benchmark, the proposed adaptive strategy is capable of handling extreme process variations. This is experimentally demonstrated by introducing static and time-varying payloads close to the rated maximum payload capacity of the manipulator arm. The comparison algorithm exhibited up to a seven-fold percent overshoot compared to the proposed integral reinforcement learning solution. The robustness of the algorithm is further validated by disturbing the real-time adapted strategy gains with a white noise of a standard deviation as high as 5%.
Genito-Pelvic Pain/Penetration-Disorder (GPPPD) is a common disorder but rarely treated in routine care. Previous research documents that GPPPD symptoms can be treated effectively using internet-based psychological interventions. However, non-response remains common for all state-of-the-art treatments and it is unclear which patient groups are expected to benefit most from an internet-based intervention. Multivariable prediction models are increasingly used to identify predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects, and to allocate treatments with the greatest expected benefits. In this study, we developed and internally validated a multivariable decision tree model that predicts effects of an internet-based treatment on a multidimensional composite score of GPPPD symptoms. Data of a randomized controlled trial comparing the internet-based intervention to a waitlist control group (N =200) was used to develop a decision tree model using model-based recursive partitioning. Model performance was assessed by examining the apparent and bootstrap bias-corrected performance. The final pruned decision tree consisted of one splitting variable, joint dyadic coping, based on which two response clusters emerged. No effect was found for patients with low dyadic coping ($n$=33; $d$=0.12; 95% CI: -0.57-0.80), while large effects ($d$=1.00; 95%CI: 0.68-1.32; $n$=167) are predicted for those with high dyadic coping at baseline. The bootstrap-bias-corrected performance of the model was $R^2$=27.74% (RMSE=13.22).
With the increased interest in immersive experiences, point cloud came to birth and was widely adopted as the first choice to represent 3D media. Besides several distortions that could affect the 3D content spanning from acquisition to rendering, efficient transmission of such volumetric content over traditional communication systems stands at the expense of the delivered perceptual quality. To estimate the magnitude of such degradation, employing quality metrics became an inevitable solution. In this work, we propose a novel deep-based no-reference quality metric that operates directly on the whole point cloud without requiring extensive pre-processing, enabling real-time evaluation over both transmission and rendering levels. To do so, we use a novel model design consisting primarily of cross and self-attention layers, in order to learn the best set of local semantic affinities while keeping the best combination of geometry and color information in multiple levels from basic features extraction to deep representation modeling.
Data-driven soft sensors are extensively used in industrial and chemical processes to predict hard-to-measure process variables whose real value is difficult to track during routine operations. The regression models used by these sensors often require a large number of labeled examples, yet obtaining the label information can be very expensive given the high time and cost required by quality inspections. In this context, active learning methods can be highly beneficial as they can suggest the most informative labels to query. However, most of the active learning strategies proposed for regression focus on the offline setting. In this work, we adapt some of these approaches to the stream-based scenario and show how they can be used to select the most informative data points. We also demonstrate how to use a semi-supervised architecture based on orthogonal autoencoders to learn salient features in a lower dimensional space. The Tennessee Eastman Process is used to compare the predictive performance of the proposed approaches.
Network connectivity exposes the network infrastructure and assets to vulnerabilities that attackers can exploit. Protecting network assets against attacks requires the application of security countermeasures. Nevertheless, employing countermeasures incurs costs, such as monetary costs, along with time and energy to prepare and deploy the countermeasures. Thus, an Intrusion Response System (IRS) shall consider security and QoS costs when dynamically selecting the countermeasures to address the detected attacks. This has motivated us to formulate a joint Security-vs-QoS optimization problem to select the best countermeasures in an IRS. The problem is then transformed into a matching game-theoretical model. Considering the monetary costs and attack coverage constraints, we first derive the theoretical upper bound for the problem and later propose stable matching-based solutions to address the trade-off. The performance of the proposed solution, considering different settings, is validated over a series of simulations.
Owing to the widespread adoption of the Internet of Things, a vast amount of sensor information is being acquired in real time. Accordingly, the communication cost of data from edge devices is increasing. Compressed sensing (CS), a data compression method that can be used on edge devices, has been attracting attention as a method to reduce communication costs. In CS, estimating the appropriate compression ratio is important. There is a method to adaptively estimate the compression ratio for the acquired data using reinforcement learning (RL). However, the computational costs associated with existing RL methods that can be utilized on edges are often high. In this study, we developed an efficient RL method for edge devices, referred to as the actor--critic online sequential extreme learning machine (AC-OSELM), and a system to compress data by estimating an appropriate compression ratio on the edge using AC-OSELM. The performance of the proposed method in estimating the compression ratio is evaluated by comparing it with other RL methods for edge devices. The experimental results indicate that AC-OSELM demonstrated the same or better compression performance and faster compression ratio estimation than the existing methods.
Common tasks encountered in epidemiology, including disease incidence estimation and causal inference, rely on predictive modeling. Constructing a predictive model can be thought of as learning a prediction function, i.e., a function that takes as input covariate data and outputs a predicted value. Many strategies for learning these functions from data are available, from parametric regressions to machine learning algorithms. It can be challenging to choose an approach, as it is impossible to know in advance which one is the most suitable for a particular dataset and prediction task at hand. The super learner (SL) is an algorithm that alleviates concerns over selecting the one "right" strategy while providing the freedom to consider many of them, such as those recommended by collaborators, used in related research, or specified by subject-matter experts. It is an entirely pre-specified and data-adaptive strategy for predictive modeling. To ensure the SL is well-specified for learning the prediction function, the analyst does need to make a few important choices. In this Education Corner article, we provide step-by-step guidelines for making these choices, walking the reader through each of them and providing intuition along the way. In doing so, we aim to empower the analyst to tailor the SL specification to their prediction task, thereby ensuring their SL performs as well as possible. A flowchart provides a concise, easy-to-follow summary of key suggestions and heuristics, based on our accumulated experience, and guided by theory.
We consider the problem of discovering $K$ related Gaussian directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the involved graph structures share a consistent causal order and sparse unions of supports. Under the multi-task learning setting, we propose a $l_1/l_2$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for learning $K$ linear structural equation models. We theoretically show that the joint estimator, by leveraging data across related tasks, can achieve a better sample complexity for recovering the causal order (or topological order) than separate estimations. Moreover, the joint estimator is able to recover non-identifiable DAGs, by estimating them together with some identifiable DAGs. Lastly, our analysis also shows the consistency of union support recovery of the structures. To allow practical implementation, we design a continuous optimization problem whose optimizer is the same as the joint estimator and can be approximated efficiently by an iterative algorithm. We validate the theoretical analysis and the effectiveness of the joint estimator in experiments.