We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death mortality rates across several countries and both genders. To maintain flexibility and scalability, we investigate MOGPs with Kronecker-structured kernels and latent factors. In particular, we develop a custom multi-level MOGP that leverages the gridded structure of mortality tables to efficiently capture heterogeneity and dependence across different factor inputs. Results are illustrated with datasets from the Human Cause-of-Death Database (HCD). We discuss a case study involving cancer variations in three European nations, and a US-based study that considers eight top-level causes and includes comparison to all-cause analysis. Our models provide insights into the commonality of cause-specific mortality trends and demonstrate the opportunities for respective data fusion.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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When Facial Expression Recognition Meets Few-Shot Learning: A Joint and Alternate Learning Framework
Human emotions involve basic and compound facial expressions. However, current research on facial expression recognition (FER) mainly focuses on basic expressions, and thus fails to address the diversity of human emotions in practical scenarios. Meanwhile, existing work on compound FER relies heavily on abundant labeled compound expression training data, which are often laboriously collected under the professional instruction of psychology. In this paper, we study compound FER in the cross-domain few-shot learning setting, where only a few images of novel classes from the target domain are required as a reference. In particular, we aim to identify unseen compound expressions with the model trained on easily accessible basic expression datasets. To alleviate the problem of limited base classes in our FER task, we propose a novel Emotion Guided Similarity Network (EGS-Net), consisting of an emotion branch and a similarity branch, based on a two-stage learning framework. Specifically, in the first stage, the similarity branch is jointly trained with the emotion branch in a multi-task fashion. With the regularization of the emotion branch, we prevent the similarity branch from overfitting to sampled base classes that are highly overlapped across different episodes. In the second stage, the emotion branch and the similarity branch play a "two-student game" to alternately learn from each other, thereby further improving the inference ability of the similarity branch on unseen compound expressions. Experimental results on both in-the-lab and in-the-wild compound expression datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method against several state-of-the-art methods.
COVID-19 related deaths underestimate the pandemic burden on mortality because they suffer from completeness and accuracy issues. Excess mortality is a popular alternative, as it compares observed with expected deaths based on the assumption that the pandemic did not occur. Expected deaths had the pandemic not occurred depend on population trends, temperature, and spatio-temporal patterns. In addition to this, high geographical resolution is required to examine within country trends and the effectiveness of the different public health policies. In this tutorial, we propose a framework using R to estimate and visualise excess mortality at high geographical resolution. We show a case study estimating excess deaths during 2020 in Italy. The proposed framework is fast to implement and allows combining different models and presenting the results in any age, sex, spatial and temporal aggregation desired. This makes it particularly powerful and appealing for online monitoring of the pandemic burden and timely policy making.
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have major impact to health and medical infrastructure, economy, and agriculture. Prominent computational and mathematical models have been unreliable due to the complexity of the spread of infections. Moreover, lack of data collection and reporting makes modelling attempts difficult and unreliable. Hence, we need to re-look at the situation with reliable data sources and innovative forecasting models. Deep learning models such as recurrent neural networks are well suited for modelling spatiotemporal sequences. In this paper, we apply recurrent neural networks such as long short term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM, and encoder-decoder LSTM models for multi-step (short-term) COVID-19 infection forecasting. We select Indian states with COVID-19 hotpots and capture the first (2020) and second (2021) wave of infections and provide two months ahead forecast. Our model predicts that the likelihood of another wave of infections in October and November 2021 is low; however, the authorities need to be vigilant given emerging variants of the virus. The accuracy of the predictions motivate the application of the method in other countries and regions. Nevertheless, the challenges in modelling remain due to the reliability of data and difficulties in capturing factors such as population density, logistics, and social aspects such as culture and lifestyle.
Computer architecture design space is vast and complex. Tools are needed to explore new ideas and gain insights quickly, with low efforts and at a desired accuracy. We propose Calipers, a criticality-based framework to model key abstractions of complex architectures and a program's execution using dynamic event-dependence graphs. By applying graph algorithms, Calipers can track instruction and event dependencies, compute critical paths, and analyze architecture bottlenecks. By manipulating the graph, Calipers enables architects to investigate a wide range of Instruction Set Architecture (ISA) and microarchitecture design choices/"what-if" scenarios during both early- and late-stage design space exploration without recompiling and rerunning the program. Calipers can model in-order and out-of-order microarchitectures, structural hazards, and different types of ISAs, and can evaluate multiple ideas in a single run. Modeling algorithms are described in detail. We apply Calipers to explore and gain insights in complex microarchitectural and ISA ideas for RISC and EDGE processors, at lower effort than cycle-accurate simulators and with comparable accuracy. For example, among a variety of investigations presented in the paper, experiments show that targeting only a fraction of critical loads can help realize most benefits of value prediction.
Undertaking causal inference with observational data is incredibly useful across a wide range of tasks including the development of medical treatments, advertisements and marketing, and policy making. There are two significant challenges associated with undertaking causal inference using observational data: treatment assignment heterogeneity (\textit{i.e.}, differences between the treated and untreated groups), and an absence of counterfactual data (\textit{i.e.}, not knowing what would have happened if an individual who did get treatment, were instead to have not been treated). We address these two challenges by combining structured inference and targeted learning. In terms of structure, we factorize the joint distribution into risk, confounding, instrumental, and miscellaneous factors, and in terms of targeted learning, we apply a regularizer derived from the influence curve in order to reduce residual bias. An ablation study is undertaken, and an evaluation on benchmark datasets demonstrates that TVAE has competitive and state of the art performance.
From learning assistance to companionship, social robots promise to enhance many aspects of daily life. However, social robots have not seen widespread adoption, in part because (1) they do not adapt their behavior to new users, and (2) they do not provide sufficient privacy protections. Centralized learning, whereby robots develop skills by gathering data on a server, contributes to these limitations by preventing online learning of new experiences and requiring storage of privacy-sensitive data. In this work, we propose a decentralized learning alternative that improves the privacy and personalization of social robots. We combine two machine learning approaches, Federated Learning and Continual Learning, to capture interaction dynamics distributed physically across robots and temporally across repeated robot encounters. We define a set of criteria that should be balanced in decentralized robot learning scenarios. We also develop a new algorithm -- Elastic Transfer -- that leverages importance-based regularization to preserve relevant parameters across robots and interactions with multiple humans. We show that decentralized learning is a viable alternative to centralized learning in a proof-of-concept Socially-Aware Navigation domain, and demonstrate how Elastic Transfer improves several of the proposed criteria.
Approaches based on deep neural networks have achieved striking performance when testing data and training data share similar distribution, but can significantly fail otherwise. Therefore, eliminating the impact of distribution shifts between training and testing data is crucial for building performance-promising deep models. Conventional methods assume either the known heterogeneity of training data (e.g. domain labels) or the approximately equal capacities of different domains. In this paper, we consider a more challenging case where neither of the above assumptions holds. We propose to address this problem by removing the dependencies between features via learning weights for training samples, which helps deep models get rid of spurious correlations and, in turn, concentrate more on the true connection between discriminative features and labels. Extensive experiments clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on multiple distribution generalization benchmarks compared with state-of-the-art counterparts. Through extensive experiments on distribution generalization benchmarks including PACS, VLCS, MNIST-M, and NICO, we show the effectiveness of our method compared with state-of-the-art counterparts.
We introduce the Neural State Machine, seeking to bridge the gap between the neural and symbolic views of AI and integrate their complementary strengths for the task of visual reasoning. Given an image, we first predict a probabilistic graph that represents its underlying semantics and serves as a structured world model. Then, we perform sequential reasoning over the graph, iteratively traversing its nodes to answer a given question or draw a new inference. In contrast to most neural architectures that are designed to closely interact with the raw sensory data, our model operates instead in an abstract latent space, by transforming both the visual and linguistic modalities into semantic concept-based representations, thereby achieving enhanced transparency and modularity. We evaluate our model on VQA-CP and GQA, two recent VQA datasets that involve compositionality, multi-step inference and diverse reasoning skills, achieving state-of-the-art results in both cases. We provide further experiments that illustrate the model's strong generalization capacity across multiple dimensions, including novel compositions of concepts, changes in the answer distribution, and unseen linguistic structures, demonstrating the qualities and efficacy of our approach.
NeuroNet is a deep convolutional neural network mimicking multiple popular and state-of-the-art brain segmentation tools including FSL, SPM, and MALPEM. The network is trained on 5,000 T1-weighted brain MRI scans from the UK Biobank Imaging Study that have been automatically segmented into brain tissue and cortical and sub-cortical structures using the standard neuroimaging pipelines. Training a single model from these complementary and partially overlapping label maps yields a new powerful "all-in-one", multi-output segmentation tool. The processing time for a single subject is reduced by an order of magnitude compared to running each individual software package. We demonstrate very good reproducibility of the original outputs while increasing robustness to variations in the input data. We believe NeuroNet could be an important tool in large-scale population imaging studies and serve as a new standard in neuroscience by reducing the risk of introducing bias when choosing a specific software package.
Most previous event extraction studies have relied heavily on features derived from annotated event mentions, thus cannot be applied to new event types without annotation effort. In this work, we take a fresh look at event extraction and model it as a grounding problem. We design a transferable neural architecture, mapping event mentions and types jointly into a shared semantic space using structural and compositional neural networks, where the type of each event mention can be determined by the closest of all candidate types . By leveraging (1)~available manual annotations for a small set of existing event types and (2)~existing event ontologies, our framework applies to new event types without requiring additional annotation. Experiments on both existing event types (e.g., ACE, ERE) and new event types (e.g., FrameNet) demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. \textit{Without any manual annotations} for 23 new event types, our zero-shot framework achieved performance comparable to a state-of-the-art supervised model which is trained from the annotations of 500 event mentions.
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