Forecasts of multivariate probability distributions are required for a variety of applications. Scoring rules enable the evaluation of forecast accuracy, and comparison between forecasting methods. We propose a theoretical framework for scoring rules for multivariate distributions, which encompasses the existing quadratic score and multivariate continuous ranked probability score. We demonstrate how this framework can be used to generate new scoring rules. In some multivariate contexts, it is a forecast of a level set that is needed, such as a density level set for anomaly detection or the level set of the cumulative distribution as a measure of risk. This motivates consideration of scoring functions for such level sets. For univariate distributions, it is well-established that the continuous ranked probability score can be expressed as the integral over a quantile score. We show that, in a similar way, scoring rules for multivariate distributions can be decomposed to obtain scoring functions for level sets. Using this, we present scoring functions for different types of level set, including density level sets and level sets for cumulative distributions. To compute the scores, we propose a simple numerical algorithm. We perform a simulation study to support our proposals, and we use real data to illustrate usefulness for forecast combining and CoVaR estimation.
相關內容
Spectrum estimation is a fundamental methodology in the analysis of time-series data, with applications including medicine, speech analysis, and control design. The asymptotic theory of spectrum estimation is well-understood, but the theory is limited when the number of samples is fixed and finite. This paper gives non-asymptotic error bounds for a broad class of spectral estimators, both pointwise (at specific frequencies) and in the worst case over all frequencies. The general method is used to derive error bounds for the classical Blackman-Tukey, Bartlett, and Welch estimators. In particular, these are first non-asymptotic error bounds for Bartlett and Welch estimators.
Current class-incremental learning research mainly focuses on single-label classification tasks while multi-label class-incremental learning (MLCIL) with more practical application scenarios is rarely studied. Although there have been many anti-forgetting methods to solve the problem of catastrophic forgetting in class-incremental learning, these methods have difficulty in solving the MLCIL problem due to label absence and information dilution. In this paper, we propose a knowledge restore and transfer (KRT) framework for MLCIL, which includes a dynamic pseudo-label (DPL) module to restore the old class knowledge and an incremental cross-attention(ICA) module to save session-specific knowledge and transfer old class knowledge to the new model sufficiently. Besides, we propose a token loss to jointly optimize the incremental cross-attention module. Experimental results on MS-COCO and PASCAL VOC datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for improving recognition performance and mitigating forgetting on multi-label class-incremental learning tasks.
Cultural heritage applications and advanced machine learning models are creating a fruitful synergy to provide effective and accessible ways of interacting with artworks. Smart audio-guides, personalized art-related content and gamification approaches are just a few examples of how technology can be exploited to provide additional value to artists or exhibitions. Nonetheless, from a machine learning point of view, the amount of available artistic data is often not enough to train effective models. Off-the-shelf computer vision modules can still be exploited to some extent, yet a severe domain shift is present between art images and standard natural image datasets used to train such models. As a result, this can lead to degraded performance. This paper introduces a novel approach to address the challenges of limited annotated data and domain shifts in the cultural heritage domain. By leveraging generative vision-language models, we augment art datasets by generating diverse variations of artworks conditioned on their captions. This augmentation strategy enhances dataset diversity, bridging the gap between natural images and artworks, and improving the alignment of visual cues with knowledge from general-purpose datasets. The generated variations assist in training vision and language models with a deeper understanding of artistic characteristics and that are able to generate better captions with appropriate jargon.
The ability to interpret machine learning models has become increasingly important as their usage in data science continues to rise. Most current interpretability methods are optimized to work on either (\textit{i}) a global scale, where the goal is to rank features based on their contributions to overall variation in an observed population, or (\textit{ii}) the local level, which aims to detail on how important a feature is to a particular individual in the data set. In this work, a new operator is proposed called the "GlObal And Local Score" (GOALS): a simple \textit{post hoc} approach to simultaneously assess local and global feature variable importance in nonlinear models. Motivated by problems in biomedicine, the approach is demonstrated using Gaussian process regression where the task of understanding how genetic markers are associated with disease progression both within individuals and across populations is of high interest. Detailed simulations and real data analyses illustrate the flexible and efficient utility of GOALS over state-of-the-art variable importance strategies.
We propose a tractable semiparametric estimation method for structural dynamic discrete choice models. The distribution of additive utility shocks in the proposed framework is modeled by location-scale mixtures of extreme value distributions with varying numbers of mixture components. Our approach exploits the analytical tractability of extreme value distributions in the multinomial choice settings and the flexibility of the location-scale mixtures. We implement the Bayesian approach to inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and an approximately optimal reversible jump algorithm. In our simulation experiments, we show that the standard dynamic logit model can deliver misleading results, especially about counterfactuals, when the shocks are not extreme value distributed. Our semiparametric approach delivers reliable inference in these settings. We develop theoretical results on approximations by location-scale mixtures in an appropriate distance and posterior concentration of the set identified utility parameters and the distribution of shocks in the model.
Embedding entities and relations into a continuous multi-dimensional vector space have become the dominant method for knowledge graph embedding in representation learning. However, most existing models ignore to represent hierarchical knowledge, such as the similarities and dissimilarities of entities in one domain. We proposed to learn a Domain Representations over existing knowledge graph embedding models, such that entities that have similar attributes are organized into the same domain. Such hierarchical knowledge of domains can give further evidence in link prediction. Experimental results show that domain embeddings give a significant improvement over the most recent state-of-art baseline knowledge graph embedding models.
The recent proliferation of knowledge graphs (KGs) coupled with incomplete or partial information, in the form of missing relations (links) between entities, has fueled a lot of research on knowledge base completion (also known as relation prediction). Several recent works suggest that convolutional neural network (CNN) based models generate richer and more expressive feature embeddings and hence also perform well on relation prediction. However, we observe that these KG embeddings treat triples independently and thus fail to cover the complex and hidden information that is inherently implicit in the local neighborhood surrounding a triple. To this effect, our paper proposes a novel attention based feature embedding that captures both entity and relation features in any given entity's neighborhood. Additionally, we also encapsulate relation clusters and multihop relations in our model. Our empirical study offers insights into the efficacy of our attention based model and we show marked performance gains in comparison to state of the art methods on all datasets.
We advocate the use of implicit fields for learning generative models of shapes and introduce an implicit field decoder for shape generation, aimed at improving the visual quality of the generated shapes. An implicit field assigns a value to each point in 3D space, so that a shape can be extracted as an iso-surface. Our implicit field decoder is trained to perform this assignment by means of a binary classifier. Specifically, it takes a point coordinate, along with a feature vector encoding a shape, and outputs a value which indicates whether the point is outside the shape or not. By replacing conventional decoders by our decoder for representation learning and generative modeling of shapes, we demonstrate superior results for tasks such as shape autoencoding, generation, interpolation, and single-view 3D reconstruction, particularly in terms of visual quality.
Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.
High spectral dimensionality and the shortage of annotations make hyperspectral image (HSI) classification a challenging problem. Recent studies suggest that convolutional neural networks can learn discriminative spatial features, which play a paramount role in HSI interpretation. However, most of these methods ignore the distinctive spectral-spatial characteristic of hyperspectral data. In addition, a large amount of unlabeled data remains an unexploited gold mine for efficient data use. Therefore, we proposed an integration of generative adversarial networks (GANs) and probabilistic graphical models for HSI classification. Specifically, we used a spectral-spatial generator and a discriminator to identify land cover categories of hyperspectral cubes. Moreover, to take advantage of a large amount of unlabeled data, we adopted a conditional random field to refine the preliminary classification results generated by GANs. Experimental results obtained using two commonly studied datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieved encouraging classification accuracy using a small number of data for training.
小貼士
登錄享
相關主題
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191