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Markov processes are widely used mathematical models for describing dynamic systems in various fields. However, accurately simulating large-scale systems at long time scales is computationally expensive due to the short time steps required for accurate integration. In this paper, we introduce an inference process that maps complex systems into a simplified representational space and models large jumps in time. To achieve this, we propose Time-lagged Information Bottleneck (T-IB), a principled objective rooted in information theory, which aims to capture relevant temporal features while discarding high-frequency information to simplify the simulation task and minimize the inference error. Our experiments demonstrate that T-IB learns information-optimal representations for accurately modeling the statistical properties and dynamics of the original process at a selected time lag, outperforming existing time-lagged dimensionality reduction methods.

We propose an approach for continuous prediction of turn-taking and backchanneling locations in spoken dialogue by fusing a neural acoustic model with a large language model (LLM). Experiments on the Switchboard human-human conversation dataset demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms the baseline models with single modality. We also develop a novel multi-task instruction fine-tuning strategy to further benefit from LLM-encoded knowledge for understanding the tasks and conversational contexts, leading to additional improvements. Our approach demonstrates the potential of combined LLMs and acoustic models for a more natural and conversational interaction between humans and speech-enabled AI agents.

Calibrating simulation models that take large quantities of multi-dimensional data as input is a hard simulation optimization problem. Existing adaptive sampling strategies offer a methodological solution. However, they may not sufficiently reduce the computational cost for estimation and solution algorithm's progress within a limited budget due to extreme noise levels and heteroskedasticity of system responses. We propose integrating stratification with adaptive sampling for the purpose of efficiency in optimization. Stratification can exploit local dependence in the simulation inputs and outputs. Yet, the state-of-the-art does not provide a full capability to adaptively stratify the data as different solution alternatives are evaluated. We devise two procedures for data-driven calibration problems that involve a large dataset with multiple covariates to calibrate models within a fixed overall simulation budget. The first approach dynamically stratifies the input data using binary trees, while the second approach uses closed-form solutions based on linearity assumptions between the objective function and concomitant variables. We find that dynamical adjustment of stratification structure accelerates optimization and reduces run-to-run variability in generated solutions. Our case study for calibrating a wind power simulation model, widely used in the wind industry, using the proposed stratified adaptive sampling, shows better-calibrated parameters under a limited budget.

Serverless computing relieves developers from the burden of resource management, thus providing ease-of-use to the users and the opportunity to optimize resource utilization for the providers. However, today's serverless systems lack performance guarantees for function invocations, thus limiting support for performance-critical applications: we observed severe performance variability (up to 6x). Providers lack visibility into user functions and hence find it challenging to right-size them: we observed heavy resource underutilization (up to 80%). To understand the causes behind the performance variability and underutilization, we conducted a measurement study of commonly deployed serverless functions and learned that the function performance and resource utilization depend crucially on function semantics and inputs. Our key insight is to delay making resource allocation decisions until after the function inputs are available. We introduce Shabari, a resource management framework for serverless systems that makes decisions as late as possible to right-size each invocation to meet functions' performance objectives (SLOs) and improve resource utilization. Shabari uses an online learning agent to right-size each function invocation based on the features of the function input and makes cold-start-aware scheduling decisions. For a range of serverless functions and inputs, Shabari reduces SLO violations by 11-73% while not wasting any vCPUs and reducing wasted memory by 64-94% in the median case, compared to state-of-the-art systems, including Aquatope, Parrotfish, and Cypress.

Although the statistical literature extensively covers continuous-valued time series processes and their parametric, non-parametric and semiparametric estimation, the literature on count data time series is considerably less advanced. Among the count data time series models, the integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) model is arguably the most popular one finding applications in a wide variety of fields such as medical sciences, environmentology and economics. While many contributions have been made during the last decades, the majority of the literature focuses on parametric INAR models and estimation techniques. Our emphasis is on the complex but efficient and non-restrictive semiparametric estimation of INAR models. The appeal of this approach lies in the absence of a commitment to a parametric family of innovation distributions. In this paper, we describe the need and the features of our R package spINAR which combines semiparametric simulation, estimation and bootstrapping of INAR models also covering its parametric versions.

Modelling the behaviour of highly nonlinear dynamical systems with robust uncertainty quantification is a challenging task which typically requires approaches specifically designed to address the problem at hand. We introduce a domain-agnostic model to address this issue termed the deep latent force model (DLFM), a deep Gaussian process with physics-informed kernels at each layer, derived from ordinary differential equations using the framework of process convolutions. Two distinct formulations of the DLFM are presented which utilise weight-space and variational inducing points-based Gaussian process approximations, both of which are amenable to doubly stochastic variational inference. We present empirical evidence of the capability of the DLFM to capture the dynamics present in highly nonlinear real-world multi-output time series data. Additionally, we find that the DLFM is capable of achieving comparable performance to a range of non-physics-informed probabilistic models on benchmark univariate regression tasks. We also empirically assess the negative impact of the inducing points framework on the extrapolation capabilities of LFM-based models.

Anomaly detection stands as a crucial aspect of time series analysis, aiming to identify abnormal events in time series samples. The central challenge of this task lies in effectively learning the representations of normal and abnormal patterns in a label-lacking scenario. Previous research mostly relied on reconstruction-based approaches, restricting the representational abilities of the models. In addition, most of the current deep learning-based methods are not lightweight enough, which prompts us to design a more efficient framework for anomaly detection. In this study, we introduce PatchAD, a novel multi-scale patch-based MLP-Mixer architecture that leverages contrastive learning for representational extraction and anomaly detection. Specifically, PatchAD is composed of four distinct MLP Mixers, exclusively utilizing the MLP architecture for high efficiency and lightweight architecture. Additionally, we also innovatively crafted a dual project constraint module to mitigate potential model degradation. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that PatchAD achieves state-of-the-art results across multiple real-world multivariate time series datasets. Our code is publicly available //github.com/EmorZz1G/PatchAD

Symbolic Computation algorithms and their implementation in computer algebra systems often contain choices which do not affect the correctness of the output but can significantly impact the resources required: such choices can benefit from having them made separately for each problem via a machine learning model. This study reports lessons on such use of machine learning in symbolic computation, in particular on the importance of analysing datasets prior to machine learning and on the different machine learning paradigms that may be utilised. We present results for a particular case study, the selection of variable ordering for cylindrical algebraic decomposition, but expect that the lessons learned are applicable to other decisions in symbolic computation. We utilise an existing dataset of examples derived from applications which was found to be imbalanced with respect to the variable ordering decision. We introduce an augmentation technique for polynomial systems problems that allows us to balance and further augment the dataset, improving the machine learning results by 28\% and 38\% on average, respectively. We then demonstrate how the existing machine learning methodology used for the problem $-$ classification $-$ might be recast into the regression paradigm. While this does not have a radical change on the performance, it does widen the scope in which the methodology can be applied to make choices.

We propose a robust and reliable evaluation metric for generative models by introducing topological and statistical treatments for rigorous support estimation. Existing metrics, such as Inception Score (IS), Frechet Inception Distance (FID), and the variants of Precision and Recall (P&R), heavily rely on supports that are estimated from sample features. However, the reliability of their estimation has not been seriously discussed (and overlooked) even though the quality of the evaluation entirely depends on it. In this paper, we propose Topological Precision and Recall (TopP&R, pronounced 'topper'), which provides a systematic approach to estimating supports, retaining only topologically and statistically important features with a certain level of confidence. This not only makes TopP&R strong for noisy features, but also provides statistical consistency. Our theoretical and experimental results show that TopP&R is robust to outliers and non-independent and identically distributed (Non-IID) perturbations, while accurately capturing the true trend of change in samples. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first evaluation metric focused on the robust estimation of the support and provides its statistical consistency under noise.

Most existing knowledge graphs suffer from incompleteness, which can be alleviated by inferring missing links based on known facts. One popular way to accomplish this is to generate low-dimensional embeddings of entities and relations, and use these to make inferences. ConvE, a recently proposed approach, applies convolutional filters on 2D reshapings of entity and relation embeddings in order to capture rich interactions between their components. However, the number of interactions that ConvE can capture is limited. In this paper, we analyze how increasing the number of these interactions affects link prediction performance, and utilize our observations to propose InteractE. InteractE is based on three key ideas -- feature permutation, a novel feature reshaping, and circular convolution. Through extensive experiments, we find that InteractE outperforms state-of-the-art convolutional link prediction baselines on FB15k-237. Further, InteractE achieves an MRR score that is 9%, 7.5%, and 23% better than ConvE on the FB15k-237, WN18RR and YAGO3-10 datasets respectively. The results validate our central hypothesis -- that increasing feature interaction is beneficial to link prediction performance. We make the source code of InteractE available to encourage reproducible research.