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Accurate time series forecasting is a fundamental challenge in data science. It is often affected by external covariates such as weather or human intervention, which in many applications, may be predicted with reasonable accuracy. We refer to them as predicted future covariates. However, existing methods that attempt to predict time series in an iterative manner with autoregressive models end up with exponential error accumulations. Other strategies hat consider the past and future in the encoder and decoder respectively limit themselves by dealing with the historical and future data separately. To address these limitations, a novel feature representation strategy -- shifting -- is proposed to fuse the past data and future covariates such that their interactions can be considered. To extract complex dynamics in time series, we develop a parallel deep learning framework composed of RNN and CNN, both of which are used hierarchically. We also utilize the skip connection technique to improve the model's performance. Extensive experiments on three datasets reveal the effectiveness of our method. Finally, we demonstrate the model interpretability using the Grad-CAM algorithm.

Temporal modeling is crucial for multi-frame human pose estimation. Most existing methods directly employ optical flow or deformable convolution to predict full-spectrum motion fields, which might incur numerous irrelevant cues, such as a nearby person or background. Without further efforts to excavate meaningful motion priors, their results are suboptimal, especially in complicated spatiotemporal interactions. On the other hand, the temporal difference has the ability to encode representative motion information which can potentially be valuable for pose estimation but has not been fully exploited. In this paper, we present a novel multi-frame human pose estimation framework, which employs temporal differences across frames to model dynamic contexts and engages mutual information objectively to facilitate useful motion information disentanglement. To be specific, we design a multi-stage Temporal Difference Encoder that performs incremental cascaded learning conditioned on multi-stage feature difference sequences to derive informative motion representation. We further propose a Representation Disentanglement module from the mutual information perspective, which can grasp discriminative task-relevant motion signals by explicitly defining useful and noisy constituents of the raw motion features and minimizing their mutual information. These place us to rank No.1 in the Crowd Pose Estimation in Complex Events Challenge on benchmark dataset HiEve, and achieve state-of-the-art performance on three benchmarks PoseTrack2017, PoseTrack2018, and PoseTrack21.

Human motion prediction aims to forecast an upcoming pose sequence given a past human motion trajectory. To address the problem, in this work we propose FreqMRN, a human motion prediction framework that takes into account both the kinematic structure of the human body and the temporal smoothness nature of motion. Specifically, FreqMRN first generates a fixed-size motion history summary using a motion attention module, which helps avoid inaccurate motion predictions due to excessively long motion inputs. Then, supervised by the proposed spatial-temporal-aware, velocity-aware and global-smoothness-aware losses, FreqMRN iteratively refines the predicted motion though the proposed motion refinement module, which converts motion representations back and forth between pose space and frequency space. We evaluate FreqMRN on several standard benchmark datasets, including Human3.6M, AMASS and 3DPW. Experimental results demonstrate that FreqMRN outperforms previous methods by large margins for both short-term and long-term predictions, while demonstrating superior robustness.

The heavy-tailed behavior of the generalized extreme-value distribution makes it a popular choice for modeling extreme events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, etc. However, estimating the distribution's parameters using conventional maximum likelihood methods can be computationally intensive, even for moderate-sized datasets. To overcome this limitation, we propose a computationally efficient, likelihood-free estimation method utilizing a neural network. Through an extensive simulation study, we demonstrate that the proposed neural network-based method provides Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameter estimates with comparable accuracy to the conventional maximum likelihood method but with a significant computational speedup. To account for estimation uncertainty, we utilize parametric bootstrapping, which is inherent in the trained network. Finally, we apply this method to 1000-year annual maximum temperature data from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) across North America for three atmospheric concentrations: 289 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$ (pre-industrial), 700 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$ (future conditions), and 1400 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$, and compare the results with those obtained using the maximum likelihood approach.

Current video text spotting methods can achieve preferable performance, powered with sufficient labeled training data. However, labeling data manually is time-consuming and labor-intensive. To overcome this, using low-cost synthetic data is a promising alternative. This paper introduces a novel video text synthesis technique called FlowText, which utilizes optical flow estimation to synthesize a large amount of text video data at a low cost for training robust video text spotters. Unlike existing methods that focus on image-level synthesis, FlowText concentrates on synthesizing temporal information of text instances across consecutive frames using optical flow. This temporal information is crucial for accurately tracking and spotting text in video sequences, including text movement, distortion, appearance, disappearance, shelter, and blur. Experiments show that combining general detectors like TransDETR with the proposed FlowText produces remarkable results on various datasets, such as ICDAR2015video and ICDAR2013video. Code is available at //github.com/callsys/FlowText.

Class Incremental Learning (CIL) aims at learning a multi-class classifier in a phase-by-phase manner, in which only data of a subset of the classes are provided at each phase. Previous works mainly focus on mitigating forgetting in phases after the initial one. However, we find that improving CIL at its initial phase is also a promising direction. Specifically, we experimentally show that directly encouraging CIL Learner at the initial phase to output similar representations as the model jointly trained on all classes can greatly boost the CIL performance. Motivated by this, we study the difference between a na\"ively-trained initial-phase model and the oracle model. Specifically, since one major difference between these two models is the number of training classes, we investigate how such difference affects the model representations. We find that, with fewer training classes, the data representations of each class lie in a long and narrow region; with more training classes, the representations of each class scatter more uniformly. Inspired by this observation, we propose Class-wise Decorrelation (CwD) that effectively regularizes representations of each class to scatter more uniformly, thus mimicking the model jointly trained with all classes (i.e., the oracle model). Our CwD is simple to implement and easy to plug into existing methods. Extensive experiments on various benchmark datasets show that CwD consistently and significantly improves the performance of existing state-of-the-art methods by around 1\% to 3\%. Code will be released.

Spatio-temporal representation learning is critical for video self-supervised representation. Recent approaches mainly use contrastive learning and pretext tasks. However, these approaches learn representation by discriminating sampled instances via feature similarity in the latent space while ignoring the intermediate state of the learned representations, which limits the overall performance. In this work, taking into account the degree of similarity of sampled instances as the intermediate state, we propose a novel pretext task - spatio-temporal overlap rate (STOR) prediction. It stems from the observation that humans are capable of discriminating the overlap rates of videos in space and time. This task encourages the model to discriminate the STOR of two generated samples to learn the representations. Moreover, we employ a joint optimization combining pretext tasks with contrastive learning to further enhance the spatio-temporal representation learning. We also study the mutual influence of each component in the proposed scheme. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed STOR task can favor both contrastive learning and pretext tasks. The joint optimization scheme can significantly improve the spatio-temporal representation in video understanding. The code is available at //github.com/Katou2/CSTP.

Recently, neural networks have been widely used in e-commerce recommender systems, owing to the rapid development of deep learning. We formalize the recommender system as a sequential recommendation problem, intending to predict the next items that the user might be interacted with. Recent works usually give an overall embedding from a user's behavior sequence. However, a unified user embedding cannot reflect the user's multiple interests during a period. In this paper, we propose a novel controllable multi-interest framework for the sequential recommendation, called ComiRec. Our multi-interest module captures multiple interests from user behavior sequences, which can be exploited for retrieving candidate items from the large-scale item pool. These items are then fed into an aggregation module to obtain the overall recommendation. The aggregation module leverages a controllable factor to balance the recommendation accuracy and diversity. We conduct experiments for the sequential recommendation on two real-world datasets, Amazon and Taobao. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework achieves significant improvements over state-of-the-art models. Our framework has also been successfully deployed on the offline Alibaba distributed cloud platform.

Video captioning is the task of automatically generating a textual description of the actions in a video. Although previous work (e.g. sequence-to-sequence model) has shown promising results in abstracting a coarse description of a short video, it is still very challenging to caption a video containing multiple fine-grained actions with a detailed description. This paper aims to address the challenge by proposing a novel hierarchical reinforcement learning framework for video captioning, where a high-level Manager module learns to design sub-goals and a low-level Worker module recognizes the primitive actions to fulfill the sub-goal. With this compositional framework to reinforce video captioning at different levels, our approach significantly outperforms all the baseline methods on a newly introduced large-scale dataset for fine-grained video captioning. Furthermore, our non-ensemble model has already achieved the state-of-the-art results on the widely-used MSR-VTT dataset.

Object tracking is challenging as target objects often undergo drastic appearance changes over time. Recently, adaptive correlation filters have been successfully applied to object tracking. However, tracking algorithms relying on highly adaptive correlation filters are prone to drift due to noisy updates. Moreover, as these algorithms do not maintain long-term memory of target appearance, they cannot recover from tracking failures caused by heavy occlusion or target disappearance in the camera view. In this paper, we propose to learn multiple adaptive correlation filters with both long-term and short-term memory of target appearance for robust object tracking. First, we learn a kernelized correlation filter with an aggressive learning rate for locating target objects precisely. We take into account the appropriate size of surrounding context and the feature representations. Second, we learn a correlation filter over a feature pyramid centered at the estimated target position for predicting scale changes. Third, we learn a complementary correlation filter with a conservative learning rate to maintain long-term memory of target appearance. We use the output responses of this long-term filter to determine if tracking failure occurs. In the case of tracking failures, we apply an incrementally learned detector to recover the target position in a sliding window fashion. Extensive experimental results on large-scale benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed algorithm performs favorably against the state-of-the-art methods in terms of efficiency, accuracy, and robustness.