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Non-stationary count time series characterized by features such as abrupt changes and fluctuations about the trend arise in many scientific domains including biophysics, ecology, energy, epidemiology, and social science domains. Current approaches for integer-valued time series lack the flexibility to capture local transient features while more flexible models for continuous data types are inadequate for universal applications to integer-valued responses such as settings with small counts. We present a modeling framework, the negative binomial Bayesian trend filter (NB-BTF), that offers an adaptive model-based solution to capturing multiscale features with valid integer-valued inference for trend filtering. The framework is a hierarchical Bayesian model with a dynamic global-local shrinkage process. The flexibility of the global-local process allows for the necessary local regularization while the temporal dependence induces a locally smooth trend. In simulation, the NB-BTF outperforms a number of alternative trend filtering methods. Then, we demonstrate the method on weekly power outage frequency in Massachusetts townships. Power outage frequency is characterized by a nominal low level with occasional spikes. These illustrations show the estimation of a smooth, non-stationary trend with adequate uncertainty quantification.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · 可辨認的 · 有向 · 神經元 · Neural Networks ·
2023 年 10 月 17 日

Single neurons in neural networks are often ``interpretable'' in that they represent individual, intuitively meaningful features. However, many neurons exhibit $\textit{mixed selectivity}$, i.e., they represent multiple unrelated features. A recent hypothesis proposes that features in deep networks may be represented in $\textit{superposition}$, i.e., on non-orthogonal axes by multiple neurons, since the number of possible interpretable features in natural data is generally larger than the number of neurons in a given network. Accordingly, we should be able to find meaningful directions in activation space that are not aligned with individual neurons. Here, we propose (1) an automated method for quantifying visual interpretability that is validated against a large database of human psychophysics judgments of neuron interpretability, and (2) an approach for finding meaningful directions in network activation space. We leverage these methods to discover directions in convolutional neural networks that are more intuitively meaningful than individual neurons, as we confirm and investigate in a series of analyses. Moreover, we apply the same method to two recent datasets of visual neural responses in the brain and find that our conclusions largely transfer to real neural data, suggesting that superposition might be deployed by the brain. This also provides a link with disentanglement and raises fundamental questions about robust, efficient and factorized representations in both artificial and biological neural systems.

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) exhibit a narrow scope of expertise on stationary independent data. However, the data in the real world is continuous and dynamic, and ANNs must adapt to novel scenarios while also retaining the learned knowledge to become lifelong learners. The ability of humans to excel at these tasks can be attributed to multiple factors ranging from cognitive computational structures, cognitive biases, and the multi-memory systems in the brain. We incorporate key concepts from each of these to design a novel framework, Dual Cognitive Architecture (DUCA), which includes multiple sub-systems, implicit and explicit knowledge representation dichotomy, inductive bias, and a multi-memory system. The inductive bias learner within DUCA is instrumental in encoding shape information, effectively countering the tendency of ANNs to learn local textures. Simultaneously, the inclusion of a semantic memory submodule facilitates the gradual consolidation of knowledge, replicating the dynamics observed in fast and slow learning systems, reminiscent of the principles underpinning the complementary learning system in human cognition. DUCA shows improvement across different settings and datasets, and it also exhibits reduced task recency bias, without the need for extra information. To further test the versatility of lifelong learning methods on a challenging distribution shift, we introduce a novel domain-incremental dataset DN4IL. In addition to improving performance on existing benchmarks, DUCA also demonstrates superior performance on this complex dataset.

Estimating tissue parameter maps with high accuracy and precision from highly undersampled measurements presents one of the major challenges in MR fingerprinting (MRF). Many existing works project the recovered voxel fingerprints onto the Bloch manifold to improve reconstruction performance. However, little research focuses on exploiting the latent manifold structure priors among fingerprints. To fill this gap, we propose a novel MRF reconstruction framework based on manifold structured data priors. Since it is difficult to directly estimate the fingerprint manifold structure, we model the tissue parameters as points on a low-dimensional parameter manifold. We reveal that the fingerprint manifold shares the same intrinsic topology as the parameter manifold, although being embedded in different Euclidean spaces. To exploit the non-linear and non-local redundancies in MRF data, we divide the MRF data into spatial patches, and the similarity measurement among data patches can be accurately obtained using the Euclidean distance between the corresponding patches in the parameter manifold. The measured similarity is then used to construct the graph Laplacian operator, which represents the fingerprint manifold structure. Thus, the fingerprint manifold structure is introduced in the reconstruction framework by using the low-dimensional parameter manifold. Additionally, we incorporate the locally low-rank prior in the reconstruction framework to further utilize the local correlations within each patch for improved reconstruction performance. We also adopt a GPU-accelerated NUFFT library to accelerate reconstruction in non-Cartesian sampling scenarios. Experimental results demonstrate that our method can achieve significantly improved reconstruction performance with reduced computational time over the state-of-the-art methods.

Identifying defect patterns in a wafer map during manufacturing is crucial to find the root cause of the underlying issue and provides valuable insights on improving yield in the foundry. Currently used methods use deep neural networks to identify the defects. These methods are generally very huge and have significant inference time. They also require GPU support to efficiently operate. All these issues make these models not fit for on-line prediction in the manufacturing foundry. In this paper, we propose an extremely simple yet effective technique to extract features from wafer images. The proposed method is extremely fast, intuitive, and non-parametric while being explainable. The experiment results show that the proposed pipeline outperforms conventional deep learning models. Our feature extraction requires no training or fine-tuning while preserving the relative shape and location of data points as revealed by our interpretability analysis.

Interacting with the actual environment to acquire data is often costly and time-consuming in robotic tasks. Model-based offline reinforcement learning (RL) provides a feasible solution. On the one hand, it eliminates the requirements of interaction with the actual environment. On the other hand, it learns the transition dynamics and reward function from the offline datasets and generates simulated rollouts to accelerate training. Previous model-based offline RL methods adopt probabilistic ensemble neural networks (NN) to model aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. However, this results in an exponential increase in training time and computing resource requirements. Furthermore, these methods are easily disturbed by the accumulative errors of the environment dynamics models when simulating long-term rollouts. To solve the above problems, we propose an uncertainty-aware sequence modeling architecture called Environment Transformer. It models the probability distribution of the environment dynamics and reward function to capture aleatoric uncertainty and treats epistemic uncertainty as a learnable noise parameter. Benefiting from the accurate modeling of the transition dynamics and reward function, Environment Transformer can be combined with arbitrary planning, dynamics programming, or policy optimization algorithms for offline RL. In this case, we perform Conservative Q-Learning (CQL) to learn a conservative Q-function. Through simulation experiments, we demonstrate that our method achieves or exceeds state-of-the-art performance in widely studied offline RL benchmarks. Moreover, we show that Environment Transformer's simulated rollout quality, sample efficiency, and long-term rollout simulation capability are superior to those of previous model-based offline RL methods.

The use of formal privacy to protect the confidentiality of responses in the 2020 Decennial Census of Population and Housing has triggered renewed interest and debate over how to measure the disclosure risks and societal benefits of the published data products. Following long-established precedent in economics and statistics, we argue that any proposal for quantifying disclosure risk should be based on pre-specified, objective criteria. Such criteria should be used to compare methodologies to identify those with the most desirable properties. We illustrate this approach, using simple desiderata, to evaluate the absolute disclosure risk framework, the counterfactual framework underlying differential privacy, and prior-to-posterior comparisons. We conclude that satisfying all the desiderata is impossible, but counterfactual comparisons satisfy the most while absolute disclosure risk satisfies the fewest. Furthermore, we explain that many of the criticisms levied against differential privacy would be levied against any technology that is not equivalent to direct, unrestricted access to confidential data. Thus, more research is needed, but in the near-term, the counterfactual approach appears best-suited for privacy-utility analysis.

Finding approximate stationary points, i.e., points where the gradient is approximately zero, of non-convex but smooth objective functions $f$ over unrestricted $d$-dimensional domains is one of the most fundamental problems in classical non-convex optimization. Nevertheless, the computational and query complexity of this problem are still not well understood when the dimension $d$ of the problem is independent of the approximation error. In this paper, we show the following computational and query complexity results: 1. The problem of finding approximate stationary points over unrestricted domains is PLS-complete. 2. For $d = 2$, we provide a zero-order algorithm for finding $\varepsilon$-approximate stationary points that requires at most $O(1/\varepsilon)$ value queries to the objective function. 3. We show that any algorithm needs at least $\Omega(1/\varepsilon)$ queries to the objective function and/or its gradient to find $\varepsilon$-approximate stationary points when $d=2$. Combined with the above, this characterizes the query complexity of this problem to be $\Theta(1/\varepsilon)$. 4. For $d = 2$, we provide a zero-order algorithm for finding $\varepsilon$-KKT points in constrained optimization problems that requires at most $O(1/\sqrt{\varepsilon})$ value queries to the objective function. This closes the gap between the works of Bubeck and Mikulincer [2020] and Vavasis [1993] and characterizes the query complexity of this problem to be $\Theta(1/\sqrt{\varepsilon})$. 5. Combining our results with the recent result of Fearnley et al. [2022], we show that finding approximate KKT points in constrained optimization is reducible to finding approximate stationary points in unconstrained optimization but the converse is impossible.

In recent years, deep neural networks have shown remarkable progress in dense disparity estimation from dynamic scenes in monocular structured light systems. However, their performance significantly drops when applied in unseen environments. To address this issue, self-supervised online adaptation has been proposed as a solution to bridge this performance gap. Unlike traditional fine-tuning processes, online adaptation performs test-time optimization to adapt networks to new domains. Therefore, achieving fast convergence during the adaptation process is critical for attaining satisfactory accuracy. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised loss function based on long sequential inputs. It ensures better gradient directions and faster convergence. Our loss function is designed using a multi-frame pattern flow, which comprises a set of sparse trajectories of the projected pattern along the sequence. We estimate the sparse pseudo ground truth with a confidence mask using a filter-based method, which guides the online adaptation process. Our proposed framework significantly improves the online adaptation speed and achieves superior performance on unseen data.

We introduce a novel modeling approach for time series imputation and forecasting, tailored to address the challenges often encountered in real-world data, such as irregular samples, missing data, or unaligned measurements from multiple sensors. Our method relies on a continuous-time-dependent model of the series' evolution dynamics. It leverages adaptations of conditional, implicit neural representations for sequential data. A modulation mechanism, driven by a meta-learning algorithm, allows adaptation to unseen samples and extrapolation beyond observed time-windows for long-term predictions. The model provides a highly flexible and unified framework for imputation and forecasting tasks across a wide range of challenging scenarios. It achieves state-of-the-art performance on classical benchmarks and outperforms alternative time-continuous models.

Adversarial attacks to image classification systems present challenges to convolutional networks and opportunities for understanding them. This study suggests that adversarial perturbations on images lead to noise in the features constructed by these networks. Motivated by this observation, we develop new network architectures that increase adversarial robustness by performing feature denoising. Specifically, our networks contain blocks that denoise the features using non-local means or other filters; the entire networks are trained end-to-end. When combined with adversarial training, our feature denoising networks substantially improve the state-of-the-art in adversarial robustness in both white-box and black-box attack settings. On ImageNet, under 10-iteration PGD white-box attacks where prior art has 27.9% accuracy, our method achieves 55.7%; even under extreme 2000-iteration PGD white-box attacks, our method secures 42.6% accuracy. A network based on our method was ranked first in Competition on Adversarial Attacks and Defenses (CAAD) 2018 --- it achieved 50.6% classification accuracy on a secret, ImageNet-like test dataset against 48 unknown attackers, surpassing the runner-up approach by ~10%. Code and models will be made publicly available.

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