Clinical decisions are often guided by clinical prediction models or diagnostic tests. Decision curve analysis (DCA) combines classical assessment of predictive performance with the consequences of using these strategies for clinical decision-making. In DCA, the best decision strategy is the one that maximizes the so-called net benefit: the net number of true positives (or negatives) provided by a given strategy. In this decision-analytic approach, often only point estimates are published. If uncertainty is reported, a risk-neutral interpretation is recommended: it motivates further research without changing the conclusions based on currently-available data. However, when it comes to new decision strategies, replacing the current Standard of Care must be carefully considered -- prematurely implementing a suboptimal strategy poses potentially irrecoverable costs. In this risk-averse setting, quantifying uncertainty may also inform whether the available data provides enough evidence to change current clinical practice. Here, we employ Bayesian approaches to DCA addressing four fundamental concerns when evaluating clinical decision strategies: (i) which strategies are clinically useful, (ii) what is the best available decision strategy, (iii) pairwise comparisons between strategies, and (iv) the expected net benefit loss associated with the current level of uncertainty. While often consistent with frequentist point estimates, fully Bayesian DCA allows for an intuitive probabilistic interpretation framework and the incorporation of prior evidence. We evaluate the methods using simulation and provide a comprehensive case study. Software implementation is available in the bayesDCA R package. Ultimately, the Bayesian DCA workflow may help clinicians and health policymakers adopt better-informed decisions.
Since the origins of the Internet, various vulnerabilities exploiting the IP fragmentation process have plagued IPv4 protocol, many leading to a wide range of attacks. IPv6 modified the handling of fragmentations and introduced a specific extension header, not solving the related problems, as proved by extensive literature. One of the primary sources of problems has been the overlapping fragments, which result in unexpected or malicious packets when reassembled. To overcome the problem related to fragmentation, the authors of RFC 5722 decided that IPv6 hosts MUST silently drop overlapping fragments. Since then, several studies have proposed methodologies to check if IPv6 hosts accept overlapping fragments and are still vulnerable to related attacks. However, some of the above methodologies have not been proven complete or need to be more accurate. In this paper we propose a novel model to check IPv6 fragmentation handling specifically suited for the reassembling strategies of modern operating systems. Previous models, indeed, considered OS reassembly policy as byte-based. However, nowadays, reassembly policies are fragment-based, making previous models inadequate. Our model leverages the commutative property of the checksum, simplifying the whole assessing process. Starting with this new model, we were able to better evaluate the RFC-5722 and RFC-9099 compliance of modern operating systems against fragmentation handling. Our results suggest that IPv6 fragmentation can still be considered a threat and that more effort is needed to solve related security issues.
This paper studies the case of possibly high-dimensional covariates in the regression discontinuity design (RDD) analysis. In particular, we propose estimation and inference methods for the RDD models with covariate selection which perform stably regardless of the number of covariates. The proposed methods combine the local approach using kernel weights with $\ell_{1}$-penalization to handle high-dimensional covariates. We provide theoretical and numerical results which illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methods. Theoretically, we present risk and coverage properties for our point estimation and inference methods, respectively. Under certain special case, the proposed estimator becomes more efficient than the conventional covariate adjusted estimator at the cost of an additional sparsity condition. Numerically, our simulation experiments and empirical example show the robust behaviors of the proposed methods to the number of covariates in terms of bias and variance for point estimation and coverage probability and interval length for inference.
Human speech can be characterized by different components, including semantic content, speaker identity and prosodic information. Significant progress has been made in disentangling representations for semantic content and speaker identity in Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) and speaker verification tasks respectively. However, it is still an open challenging research question to extract prosodic information because of the intrinsic association of different attributes, such as timbre and rhythm, and because of the need for supervised training schemes to achieve robust large-scale and speaker-independent ASR. The aim of this paper is to address the disentanglement of emotional prosody from speech based on unsupervised reconstruction. Specifically, we identify, design, implement and integrate three crucial components in our proposed speech reconstruction model Prosody2Vec: (1) a unit encoder that transforms speech signals into discrete units for semantic content, (2) a pretrained speaker verification model to generate speaker identity embeddings, and (3) a trainable prosody encoder to learn prosody representations. We first pretrain the Prosody2Vec representations on unlabelled emotional speech corpora, then fine-tune the model on specific datasets to perform Speech Emotion Recognition (SER) and Emotional Voice Conversion (EVC) tasks. Both objective (weighted and unweighted accuracies) and subjective (mean opinion score) evaluations on the EVC task suggest that Prosody2Vec effectively captures general prosodic features that can be smoothly transferred to other emotional speech. In addition, our SER experiments on the IEMOCAP dataset reveal that the prosody features learned by Prosody2Vec are complementary and beneficial for the performance of widely used speech pretraining models and surpass the state-of-the-art methods when combining Prosody2Vec with HuBERT representations.
Bilinear based models are powerful and widely used approaches for Knowledge Graphs Completion (KGC). Although bilinear based models have achieved significant advances, these studies mainly concentrate on posterior properties (based on evidence, e.g. symmetry pattern) while neglecting the prior properties. In this paper, we find a prior property named "the law of identity" that cannot be captured by bilinear based models, which hinders them from comprehensively modeling the characteristics of KGs. To address this issue, we introduce a solution called Unit Ball Bilinear Model (UniBi). This model not only achieves theoretical superiority but also offers enhanced interpretability and performance by minimizing ineffective learning through minimal constraints. Experiments demonstrate that UniBi models the prior property and verify its interpretability and performance.
Quantum based systems are a relatively new research area for that different modelling languages including process calculi are currently under development. Encodings are often used to compare process calculi. Quality criteria are used then to rule out trivial or meaningless encodings. In this new context of quantum based systems, it is necessary to analyse the applicability of these quality criteria and to potentially extend or adapt them. As a first step, we test the suitability of classical criteria for encodings between quantum based languages and discuss new criteria. Concretely, we present an encoding, from a language inspired by CQP into a language inspired by qCCS. We show that this encoding satisfies compositionality, name invariance (for channel and qubit names), operational correspondence, divergence reflection, success sensitiveness, and that it preserves the size of quantum registers. Then we show that there is no encoding from qCCS into CQP that is compositional, operationally corresponding, and success sensitive.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.
It is important to detect anomalous inputs when deploying machine learning systems. The use of larger and more complex inputs in deep learning magnifies the difficulty of distinguishing between anomalous and in-distribution examples. At the same time, diverse image and text data are available in enormous quantities. We propose leveraging these data to improve deep anomaly detection by training anomaly detectors against an auxiliary dataset of outliers, an approach we call Outlier Exposure (OE). This enables anomaly detectors to generalize and detect unseen anomalies. In extensive experiments on natural language processing and small- and large-scale vision tasks, we find that Outlier Exposure significantly improves detection performance. We also observe that cutting-edge generative models trained on CIFAR-10 may assign higher likelihoods to SVHN images than to CIFAR-10 images; we use OE to mitigate this issue. We also analyze the flexibility and robustness of Outlier Exposure, and identify characteristics of the auxiliary dataset that improve performance.
Recently, graph neural networks (GNNs) have revolutionized the field of graph representation learning through effectively learned node embeddings, and achieved state-of-the-art results in tasks such as node classification and link prediction. However, current GNN methods are inherently flat and do not learn hierarchical representations of graphs---a limitation that is especially problematic for the task of graph classification, where the goal is to predict the label associated with an entire graph. Here we propose DiffPool, a differentiable graph pooling module that can generate hierarchical representations of graphs and can be combined with various graph neural network architectures in an end-to-end fashion. DiffPool learns a differentiable soft cluster assignment for nodes at each layer of a deep GNN, mapping nodes to a set of clusters, which then form the coarsened input for the next GNN layer. Our experimental results show that combining existing GNN methods with DiffPool yields an average improvement of 5-10% accuracy on graph classification benchmarks, compared to all existing pooling approaches, achieving a new state-of-the-art on four out of five benchmark data sets.
Aspect based sentiment analysis (ABSA) can provide more detailed information than general sentiment analysis, because it aims to predict the sentiment polarities of the given aspects or entities in text. We summarize previous approaches into two subtasks: aspect-category sentiment analysis (ACSA) and aspect-term sentiment analysis (ATSA). Most previous approaches employ long short-term memory and attention mechanisms to predict the sentiment polarity of the concerned targets, which are often complicated and need more training time. We propose a model based on convolutional neural networks and gating mechanisms, which is more accurate and efficient. First, the novel Gated Tanh-ReLU Units can selectively output the sentiment features according to the given aspect or entity. The architecture is much simpler than attention layer used in the existing models. Second, the computations of our model could be easily parallelized during training, because convolutional layers do not have time dependency as in LSTM layers, and gating units also work independently. The experiments on SemEval datasets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our models.
We propose a new method for event extraction (EE) task based on an imitation learning framework, specifically, inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) via generative adversarial network (GAN). The GAN estimates proper rewards according to the difference between the actions committed by the expert (or ground truth) and the agent among complicated states in the environment. EE task benefits from these dynamic rewards because instances and labels yield to various extents of difficulty and the gains are expected to be diverse -- e.g., an ambiguous but correctly detected trigger or argument should receive high gains -- while the traditional RL models usually neglect such differences and pay equal attention on all instances. Moreover, our experiments also demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods, without explicit feature engineering.