Expectiles define the only law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure apart from the expectation. The popularity of expectile-based risk measures is steadily growing and their properties have been studied for independent data, but further results are needed to use extreme expectiles with dependent time series such as financial data. In this paper we establish a basis for inference on extreme expectiles and expectile-based marginal expected shortfall in a general $\beta$-mixing context that encompasses ARMA, ARCH and GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations. Simulations and applications to financial returns show that the new estimators and confidence intervals greatly improve on existing ones when the data are dependent.
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The marginal Bayesian predictive classifiers (mBpc) as opposed to the simultaneous Bayesian predictive classifiers (sBpc), handle each data separately and hence tacitly assumes the independence of the observations. However, due to saturation in learning of generative model parameters, the adverse effect of this false assumption on the accuracy of mBpc tends to wear out in face of increasing amount of training data; guaranteeing the convergence of these two classifiers under de Finetti type of exchangeability. This result however, is far from trivial for the sequences generated under Partition exchangeability (PE), where even umpteen amount of training data is not ruling out the possibility of an unobserved outcome (Wonderland!). We provide a computational scheme that allows the generation of the sequences under PE. Based on that, with controlled increase of the training data, we show the convergence of the sBpc and mBpc. This underlies the use of simpler yet computationally more efficient marginal classifiers instead of simultaneous. We also provide a parameter estimation of the generative model giving rise to the partition exchangeable sequence as well as a testing paradigm for the equality of this parameter across different samples. The package for Bayesian predictive supervised classifications, parameter estimation and hypothesis testing of the Ewens Sampling formula generative model is deposited on CRAN as PEkit package and free available from //github.com/AmiryousefiLab/PEkit.
Unbiased and consistent variance estimators generally do not exist for design-based treatment effect estimators because experimenters never observe more than one potential outcome for any unit. The problem is exacerbated by interference and complex experimental designs. In this paper, we consider variance estimation for linear treatment effect estimators under interference and arbitrary experimental designs. Experimenters must accept conservative estimators in this setting, but they can strive to minimize the conservativeness. We show that this task can be interpreted as an optimization problem in which one aims to find the lowest estimable upper bound of the true variance given one's risk preference and knowledge of the potential outcomes. We characterize the set of admissible bounds in the class of quadratic forms, and we demonstrate that the optimization problem is a convex program for many natural objectives. This allows experimenters to construct less conservative variance estimators, making inferences about treatment effects more informative. The resulting estimators are guaranteed to be conservative regardless of whether the background knowledge used to construct the bound is correct, but the estimators are less conservative if the knowledge is reasonably accurate.
Algorithmic fairness has aroused considerable interests in data mining and machine learning communities recently. So far the existing research has been mostly focusing on the development of quantitative metrics to measure algorithm disparities across different protected groups, and approaches for adjusting the algorithm output to reduce such disparities. In this paper, we propose to study the problem of identification of the source of model disparities. Unlike existing interpretation methods which typically learn feature importance, we consider the causal relationships among feature variables and propose a novel framework to decompose the disparity into the sum of contributions from fairness-aware causal paths, which are paths linking the sensitive attribute and the final predictions, on the graph. We also consider the scenario when the directions on certain edges within those paths cannot be determined. Our framework is also model agnostic and applicable to a variety of quantitative disparity measures. Empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world data sets are provided to show that our method can provide precise and comprehensive explanations to the model disparities.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
We propose two generic methods for improving semi-supervised learning (SSL). The first integrates weight perturbation (WP) into existing "consistency regularization" (CR) based methods. We implement WP by leveraging variational Bayesian inference (VBI). The second method proposes a novel consistency loss called "maximum uncertainty regularization" (MUR). While most consistency losses act on perturbations in the vicinity of each data point, MUR actively searches for "virtual" points situated beyond this region that cause the most uncertain class predictions. This allows MUR to impose smoothness on a wider area in the input-output manifold. Our experiments show clear improvements in classification errors of various CR based methods when they are combined with VBI or MUR or both.
This paper is concerned with data-driven unsupervised domain adaptation, where it is unknown in advance how the joint distribution changes across domains, i.e., what factors or modules of the data distribution remain invariant or change across domains. To develop an automated way of domain adaptation with multiple source domains, we propose to use a graphical model as a compact way to encode the change property of the joint distribution, which can be learned from data, and then view domain adaptation as a problem of Bayesian inference on the graphical models. Such a graphical model distinguishes between constant and varied modules of the distribution and specifies the properties of the changes across domains, which serves as prior knowledge of the changing modules for the purpose of deriving the posterior of the target variable $Y$ in the target domain. This provides an end-to-end framework of domain adaptation, in which additional knowledge about how the joint distribution changes, if available, can be directly incorporated to improve the graphical representation. We discuss how causality-based domain adaptation can be put under this umbrella. Experimental results on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed framework for domain adaptation. The code is available at //github.com/mgong2/DA_Infer .
Deep neural networks (DNN) have achieved unprecedented success in numerous machine learning tasks in various domains. However, the existence of adversarial examples has raised concerns about applying deep learning to safety-critical applications. As a result, we have witnessed increasing interests in studying attack and defense mechanisms for DNN models on different data types, such as images, graphs and text. Thus, it is necessary to provide a systematic and comprehensive overview of the main threats of attacks and the success of corresponding countermeasures. In this survey, we review the state of the art algorithms for generating adversarial examples and the countermeasures against adversarial examples, for the three popular data types, i.e., images, graphs and text.
The main obstacle to weakly supervised semantic image segmentation is the difficulty of obtaining pixel-level information from coarse image-level annotations. Most methods based on image-level annotations use localization maps obtained from the classifier, but these only focus on the small discriminative parts of objects and do not capture precise boundaries. FickleNet explores diverse combinations of locations on feature maps created by generic deep neural networks. It selects hidden units randomly and then uses them to obtain activation scores for image classification. FickleNet implicitly learns the coherence of each location in the feature maps, resulting in a localization map which identifies both discriminative and other parts of objects. The ensemble effects are obtained from a single network by selecting random hidden unit pairs, which means that a variety of localization maps are generated from a single image. Our approach does not require any additional training steps and only adds a simple layer to a standard convolutional neural network; nevertheless it outperforms recent comparable techniques on the Pascal VOC 2012 benchmark in both weakly and semi-supervised settings.
Natural Language Inference (NLI) is fundamental to many Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications including semantic search and question answering. The NLI problem has gained significant attention thanks to the release of large scale, challenging datasets. Present approaches to the problem largely focus on learning-based methods that use only textual information in order to classify whether a given premise entails, contradicts, or is neutral with respect to a given hypothesis. Surprisingly, the use of methods based on structured knowledge -- a central topic in artificial intelligence -- has not received much attention vis-a-vis the NLI problem. While there are many open knowledge bases that contain various types of reasoning information, their use for NLI has not been well explored. To address this, we present a combination of techniques that harness knowledge graphs to improve performance on the NLI problem in the science questions domain. We present the results of applying our techniques on text, graph, and text-to-graph based models, and discuss implications for the use of external knowledge in solving the NLI problem. Our model achieves the new state-of-the-art performance on the NLI problem over the SciTail science questions dataset.
Generative models (GMs) such as Generative Adversary Network (GAN) and Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) have thrived these years and achieved high quality results in generating new samples. Especially in Computer Vision, GMs have been used in image inpainting, denoising and completion, which can be treated as the inference from observed pixels to corrupted pixels. However, images are hierarchically structured which are quite different from many real-world inference scenarios with non-hierarchical features. These inference scenarios contain heterogeneous stochastic variables and irregular mutual dependences. Traditionally they are modeled by Bayesian Network (BN). However, the learning and inference of BN model are NP-hard thus the number of stochastic variables in BN is highly constrained. In this paper, we adapt typical GMs to enable heterogeneous learning and inference in polynomial time.We also propose an extended autoregressive (EAR) model and an EAR with adversary loss (EARA) model and give theoretical results on their effectiveness. Experiments on several BN datasets show that our proposed EAR model achieves the best performance in most cases compared to other GMs. Except for black box analysis, we've also done a serial of experiments on Markov border inference of GMs for white box analysis and give theoretical results.
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