We investigate long-term cognitive effects of a hypothetical intervention, where systolic blood pressure (sBP) is monitored at more optimal levels, in a large representative sample. A limitation with previous research on the potential risk reduction of such interventions is that they do not properly account for the reduction of mortality rates. Hence, one can only speculate whether the effect is a result from changes in cognition or changes in mortality. As such, we extend previous research by providing both an etiological and a prognostic effect estimate. To do this we also propose a Bayesian semi-parametric estimation approach for an incremental intervention, using the extended G-formula. We also introduce a novel sparsity-inducing Dirichlet hyperprior for longitudinal data, demonstrate the usefulness of our approach in simulations, and compare the performance relative to other Bayesian decision tree ensemble approaches. The results revealed a weak (non-significant) prognostic effect and a significant etiological effect in later-life, but not in mid-life. These findings provide important information about long-term sBP control in cognitive aging, indicating that sBP interventions may have an effect on memory later in life at the individual level, although only small effects would be seen at the population level due to altered mortality rates.
相關內容
MRI, a widespread non-invasive medical imaging modality, is highly sensitive to patient motion. Despite many attempts over the years, motion correction remains a difficult problem and there is no general method applicable to all situations. We propose a retrospective method for motion quantification and correction to tackle the problem of in-plane rigid-body motion, apt for classical 2D Spin-Echo scans of the brain, which are regularly used in clinical practice. Due to the sequential acquisition of k-space, motion artifacts are well localized. The method leverages the power of deep neural networks to estimate motion parameters in k-space and uses a model-based approach to restore degraded images to avoid ''hallucinations''. Notable advantages are its ability to estimate motion occurring in high spatial frequencies without the need of a motion-free reference. The proposed method operates on the whole k-space dynamic range and is moderately affected by the lower SNR of higher harmonics. As a proof of concept, we provide models trained using supervised learning on 600k motion simulations based on motion-free scans of 43 different subjects. Generalization performance was tested with simulations as well as in-vivo. Qualitative and quantitative evaluations are presented for motion parameter estimations and image reconstruction. Experimental results show that our approach is able to obtain good generalization performance on simulated data and in-vivo acquisitions.
Recent advances in practical quantum computing have led to a variety of cloud-based quantum computing platforms that allow researchers to evaluate their algorithms on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. A common property of quantum computers is that they can exhibit instances of true randomness as opposed to pseudo-randomness obtained from classical systems. Investigating the effects of such true quantum randomness in the context of machine learning is appealing, and recent results vaguely suggest that benefits can indeed be achieved from the use of quantum random numbers. To shed some more light on this topic, we empirically study the effects of hardware-biased quantum random numbers on the initialization of artificial neural network weights in numerical experiments. We find no statistically significant difference in comparison with unbiased quantum random numbers as well as biased and unbiased random numbers from a classical pseudo-random number generator. The quantum random numbers for our experiments are obtained from real quantum hardware.
Changes in climate can greatly affect the phenology of plants, which can have important feedback effects, such as altering the carbon cycle. These phenological feedback effects are often induced by a shift in the start or end dates of the growing season of plants. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) serves as a straightforward indicator for assessing the presence of green vegetation and can also provide an estimation of the plants' growing season. In this study, we investigated the effect of soil temperature on the timing of the start of the season (SOS), timing of the peak of the season (POS), and the maximum annual NDVI value (PEAK) in subarctic grassland ecosystems between 2014 and 2019. We also explored the impact of other meteorological variables, including air temperature, precipitation, and irradiance, on the inter-annual variation in vegetation phenology. Using machine learning (ML) techniques and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values, we analyzed the relative importance and contribution of each variable to the phenological predictions. Our results reveal a significant relationship between soil temperature and SOS and POS, indicating that higher soil temperatures lead to an earlier start and peak of the growing season. However, the Peak NDVI values showed just a slight increase with higher soil temperatures. The analysis of other meteorological variables demonstrated their impacts on the inter-annual variation of the vegetation phenology. Ultimately, this study contributes to our knowledge of the relationships between soil temperature, meteorological variables, and vegetation phenology, providing valuable insights for predicting vegetation phenology characteristics and managing subarctic grasslands in the face of climate change. Additionally, this work provides a solid foundation for future ML-based vegetation phenology studies.
Quantitative convergence of a discretization of dynamic optimal transport using the dual formulation
We present a discretization of the dynamic optimal transport problem for which we can obtain the convergence rate for the value of the transport cost to its continuous value when the temporal and spatial stepsize vanish. This convergence result does not require any regularity assumption on the measures, though experiments suggest that the rate is not sharp. Via an analysis of the duality gap we also obtain the convergence rates for the gradient of the optimal potentials and the velocity field under mild regularity assumptions. To obtain such rates we discretize the dual formulation of the dynamic optimal transport problem and use the mature literature related to the error due to discretizing the Hamilton-Jacobi equation.
The study of treatment effects is often complicated by noncompliance and missing data. In the one-sided noncompliance setting where of interest are the complier and noncomplier average causal effects (CACE and NACE), we address outcome missingness of the \textit{latent missing at random} type (LMAR, also known as \textit{latent ignorability}). That is, conditional on covariates and treatment assigned, the missingness may depend on compliance type. Within the instrumental variable (IV) approach to noncompliance, methods have been proposed for handling LMAR outcome that additionally invoke an exclusion restriction type assumption on missingness, but no solution has been proposed for when a non-IV approach is used. This paper focuses on effect identification in the presence of LMAR outcome, with a view to flexibly accommodate different principal identification approaches. We show that under treatment assignment ignorability and LMAR only, effect nonidentifiability boils down to a set of two connected mixture equations involving unidentified stratum-specific response probabilities and outcome means. This clarifies that (except for a special case) effect identification generally requires two additional assumptions: a \textit{specific missingness mechanism} assumption and a \textit{principal identification} assumption. This provides a template for identifying effects based on separate choices of these assumptions. We consider a range of specific missingness assumptions, including those that have appeared in the literature and some new ones. Incidentally, we find an issue in the existing assumptions, and propose a modification of the assumptions to avoid the issue. Results under different assumptions are illustrated using data from the Baltimore Experience Corps Trial.
We study the problem of estimation of Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) in the context of multiple treatments and networked observational data. Leveraging the network information, we aim to utilize hidden confounders that may not be directly accessible in the observed data, thereby enhancing the practical applicability of the strong ignorability assumption. To achieve this, we first employ Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) to learn a shared representation of the confounders. Then, our approach utilizes separate neural networks to infer potential outcomes for each treatment. We design a loss function as a weighted combination of two components: representation loss and Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss on the factual outcomes. To measure the representation loss, we extend existing metrics such as Wasserstein and Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) from the binary treatment setting to the multiple treatments scenario. To validate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology, we conduct a series of experiments on the benchmark datasets such as BlogCatalog and Flickr. The experimental results consistently demonstrate the superior performance of our models when compared to baseline methods.
Block majorization-minimization (BMM) is a simple iterative algorithm for nonconvex optimization that sequentially minimizes a majorizing surrogate of the objective function in each block coordinate while the other block coordinates are held fixed. We consider a family of BMM algorithms for minimizing smooth nonconvex objectives, where each parameter block is constrained within a subset of a Riemannian manifold. We establish that this algorithm converges asymptotically to the set of stationary points, and attains an $\epsilon$-stationary point within $\widetilde{O}(\epsilon^{-2})$ iterations. In particular, the assumptions for our complexity results are completely Euclidean when the underlying manifold is a product of Euclidean or Stiefel manifolds, although our analysis makes explicit use of the Riemannian geometry. Our general analysis applies to a wide range of algorithms with Riemannian constraints: Riemannian MM, block projected gradient descent, optimistic likelihood estimation, geodesically constrained subspace tracking, robust PCA, and Riemannian CP-dictionary-learning. We experimentally validate that our algorithm converges faster than standard Euclidean algorithms applied to the Riemannian setting.
This paper launches a thorough discussion on the locality of local neural operator (LNO), which is the core that enables LNO great flexibility on varied computational domains in solving transient partial differential equations (PDEs). We investigate the locality of LNO by looking into its receptive field and receptive range, carrying a main concern about how the locality acts in LNO training and applications. In a large group of LNO training experiments for learning fluid dynamics, it is found that an initial receptive range compatible with the learning task is crucial for LNO to perform well. On the one hand, an over-small receptive range is fatal and usually leads LNO to numerical oscillation; on the other hand, an over-large receptive range hinders LNO from achieving the best accuracy. We deem rules found in this paper general when applying LNO to learn and solve transient PDEs in diverse fields. Practical examples of applying the pre-trained LNOs in flow prediction are presented to confirm the findings further. Overall, with the architecture properly designed with a compatible receptive range, the pre-trained LNO shows commendable accuracy and efficiency in solving practical cases.
The effects of treatments may differ between persons with different characteristics. Addressing such treatment heterogeneity is crucial to investigate whether patients with specific characteristics are likely to benefit from a new treatment. The current paper presents a novel Bayesian method for superiority decision-making in the context of randomized controlled trials with multivariate binary responses and heterogeneous treatment effects. The framework is based on three elements: a) Bayesian multivariate logistic regression analysis with a P\'olya-Gamma expansion; b) a transformation procedure to transfer obtained regression coefficients to a more intuitive multivariate probability scale (i.e., success probabilities and the differences between them); and c) a compatible decision procedure for treatment comparison with prespecified decision error rates. Procedures for a priori sample size estimation under a non-informative prior distribution are included. A numerical evaluation demonstrated that decisions based on a priori sample size estimation resulted in anticipated error rates among the trial population as well as subpopulations. Further, average and conditional treatment effect parameters could be estimated unbiasedly when the sample was large enough. Illustration with the International Stroke Trial dataset revealed a trend towards heterogeneous effects among stroke patients: Something that would have remained undetected when analyses were limited to average treatment effects.
With the increasing demand of intelligent systems capable of operating in different contexts (e.g. users on the move) the correct interpretation of the user-need by such systems has become crucial to give consistent answers to the user questions. The most effective applications addressing such task are in the fields of natural language processing and semantic expansion of terms. These techniques are aimed at estimating the goal of an input query reformulating it as an intent, commonly relying on textual resources built exploiting different semantic relations like \emph{synonymy}, \emph{antonymy} and many others. The aim of this paper is to generate such resources using the labels of a given taxonomy as source of information. The obtained resources are integrated into a plain classifier for reformulating a set of input queries as intents and tracking the effect of each relation, in order to quantify the impact of each semantic relation on the classification. As an extension to this, the best tradeoff between improvement and noise introduction when combining such relations is evaluated. The assessment is made generating the resources and their combinations and using them for tuning the classifier which is used to reformulate the user questions as labels. The evaluation employs a wide and varied taxonomy as a use-case, exploiting its labels as basis for the semantic expansion and producing several corpora with the purpose of enhancing the pseudo-queries estimation.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191