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This paper studies covariate adjusted estimation of the average treatment effect (ATE) in stratified experiments. We work in the stratified randomization framework of Cytrynbaum (2021), which includes matched tuples designs (e.g. matched pairs), coarse stratification, and complete randomization as special cases. Interestingly, we show that the Lin (2013) interacted regression is generically asymptotically inefficient, with efficiency only in the edge case of complete randomization. Motivated by this finding, we derive the optimal linear covariate adjustment for a given stratified design, constructing several new estimators that achieve the minimal variance. Conceptually, we show that optimal linear adjustment of a stratified design is equivalent in large samples to doubly-robust semiparametric adjustment of an independent design. We also develop novel asymptotically exact inference for the ATE over a general family of adjusted estimators, showing in simulations that the usual Eicker-Huber-White confidence intervals can significantly overcover. Our inference methods produce shorter confidence intervals by fully accounting for the precision gains from both covariate adjustment and stratified randomization. Simulation experiments and an empirical application to the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment data (Finkelstein et al. (2012)) demonstrate the value of our proposed methods.

The use of Agent-Based and Activity-Based modeling in transportation is rising due to the capability of addressing complex applications such as disruptive trends (e.g., remote working and automation) or the design and assessment of disaggregated management strategies. Still, the broad adoption of large-scale disaggregate models is not materializing due to the inherently high complexity and computational needs. Activity-based models focused on behavioral theory, for example, may involve hundreds of parameters that need to be calibrated to match the detailed socio-economical characteristics of the population for any case study. This paper tackles this issue by proposing a novel Bayesian Optimization approach incorporating a surrogate model in the form of an improved Random Forest, designed to automate the calibration process of the behavioral parameters. The proposed method is tested on a case study for the city of Tallinn, Estonia, where the model to be calibrated consists of 477 behavioral parameters, using the SimMobility MT software. Satisfactory performance is achieved in the major indicators defined for the calibration process: the error for the overall number of trips is equal to 4% and the average error in the OD matrix is 15.92 vehicles per day.

Research on debiased recommendation has shown promising results. However, some issues still need to be handled for its application in industrial recommendation. For example, most of the existing methods require some specific data, architectures and training methods. In this paper, we first argue through an online study that arbitrarily removing all the biases in industrial recommendation may not consistently yield a desired performance improvement. For the situation that a randomized dataset is not available, we propose a novel self-sampling training and evaluation (SSTE) framework to achieve the accuracy-bias tradeoff in recommendation, i.e., eliminate the harmful biases and preserve the beneficial ones. Specifically, SSTE uses a self-sampling module to generate some subsets with different degrees of bias from the original training and validation data. A self-training module infers the beneficial biases and learns better tradeoff based on these subsets, and a self-evaluation module aims to use these subsets to construct more plausible references to reflect the optimized model. Finally, we conduct extensive offline experiments on two datasets to verify the effectiveness of our SSTE. Moreover, we deploy our SSTE in homepage recommendation of a famous financial management product called Tencent Licaitong, and find very promising results in an online A/B test.

We consider signal source localization from range-difference measurements. First, we give some readily-checked conditions on measurement noises and sensor deployment to guarantee the asymptotic identifiability of the model and show the consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator. Then, we devise an estimator that owns the same asymptotic property as the ML one. Specifically, we prove that the negative log-likelihood function converges to a function, which has a unique minimum and positive-definite Hessian at the true source's position. Hence, it is promising to execute local iterations, e.g., the Gauss-Newton (GN) algorithm, following a consistent estimate. The main issue involved is obtaining a preliminary consistent estimate. To this aim, we construct a linear least-squares problem via algebraic operation and constraint relaxation and obtain a closed-form solution. We then focus on deriving and eliminating the bias of the linear least-squares estimator, which yields an asymptotically unbiased (thus consistent) estimate. Noting that the bias is a function of the noise variance, we further devise a consistent noise variance estimator which involves $3$-order polynomial rooting. Based on the preliminary consistent location estimate, we prove that a one-step GN iteration suffices to achieve the same asymptotic property as the ML estimator. Simulation results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithm in the large sample case.

This work considers Gaussian process interpolation with a periodized version of the Mat{\'e}rn covariance function introduced by Stein (22, Section 6.7). Convergence rates are studied for the joint maximum likelihood estimation of the regularity and the amplitude parameters when the data is sampled according to the model. The mean integrated squared error is also analyzed with fixed and estimated parameters, showing that maximum likelihood estimation yields asymptotically the same error as if the ground truth was known. Finally, the case where the observed function is a fixed deterministic element of a Sobolev space of continuous functions is also considered, suggesting that bounding assumptions on some parameters can lead to different estimates.

We consider a shape optimization based method for finding the best interpolation data in the compression of images with noise. The aim is to reconstruct missing regions by means of minimizing a data fitting term in an $L^p$-norm between original images and their reconstructed counterparts using linear diffusion PDE-based inpainting. Reformulating the problem as a constrained optimization over sets (shapes), we derive the topological asymptotic expansion of the considered shape functionals with respect to the insertion of small ball (a single pixel) using the adjoint method. Based on the achieved distributed topological shape derivatives, we propose a numerical approach to determine the optimal set and present numerical experiments showing, the efficiency of our method. Numerical computations are presented that confirm the usefulness of our theoretical findings for PDE-based image compression.

We use trivariate spline functions for the numerical solution of the Dirichlet problem of the 3D elliptic Monge-Amp\'ere equation. Mainly we use the spline collocation method introduced in [SIAM J. Numerical Analysis, 2405-2434,2022] to numerically solve iterative Poisson equations and use an averaged algorithm to ensure the convergence of the iterations. We shall also establish the rate of convergence under a sufficient condition and provide some numerical evidence to show the numerical rates. Then we present many computational results to demonstrate that this approach works very well. In particular, we tested many known convex solutions as well as nonconvex solutions over convex and nonconvex domains and compared them with several existing numerical methods to show the efficiency and effectiveness of our approach.

Many real-world systems can be described by mathematical formulas that are human-comprehensible, easy to analyze and can be helpful in explaining the system's behaviour. Symbolic regression is a method that generates nonlinear models from data in the form of analytic expressions. Historically, symbolic regression has been predominantly realized using genetic programming, a method that iteratively evolves a population of candidate solutions that are sampled by genetic operators crossover and mutation. This gradient-free evolutionary approach suffers from several deficiencies: it does not scale well with the number of variables and samples in the training data, models tend to grow in size and complexity without an adequate accuracy gain, and it is hard to fine-tune the inner model coefficients using just genetic operators. Recently, neural networks have been applied to learn the whole analytic formula, i.e., its structure as well as the coefficients, by means of gradient-based optimization algorithms. We propose a novel neural network-based symbolic regression method that constructs physically plausible models based on limited training data and prior knowledge about the system. The method employs an adaptive weighting scheme to effectively deal with multiple loss function terms and an epoch-wise learning process to reduce the chance of getting stuck in poor local optima. Furthermore, we propose a parameter-free method for choosing the model with the best interpolation and extrapolation performance out of all models generated through the whole learning process. We experimentally evaluate the approach on the TurtleBot 2 mobile robot, the magnetic manipulation system, the equivalent resistance of two resistors in parallel, and the anti-lock braking system. The results clearly show the potential of the method to find sparse and accurate models that comply with the prior knowledge provided.

Deep learning (DL) plays a more and more important role in our daily life due to its competitive performance in industrial application domains. As the core of DL-enabled systems, deep neural networks (DNNs) need to be carefully evaluated to ensure the produced models match the expected requirements. In practice, the \emph{de facto standard} to assess the quality of DNNs in the industry is to check their performance (accuracy) on a collected set of labeled test data. However, preparing such labeled data is often not easy partly because of the huge labeling effort, i.e., data labeling is labor-intensive, especially with the massive new incoming unlabeled data every day. Recent studies show that test selection for DNN is a promising direction that tackles this issue by selecting minimal representative data to label and using these data to assess the model. However, it still requires human effort and cannot be automatic. In this paper, we propose a novel technique, named \textit{Aries}, that can estimate the performance of DNNs on new unlabeled data using only the information obtained from the original test data. The key insight behind our technique is that the model should have similar prediction accuracy on the data which have similar distances to the decision boundary. We performed a large-scale evaluation of our technique on two famous datasets, CIFAR-10 and Tiny-ImageNet, four widely studied DNN models including ResNet101 and DenseNet121, and 13 types of data transformation methods. Results show that the estimated accuracy by \textit{Aries} is only 0.03\% -- 2.60\% off the true accuracy. Besides, \textit{Aries} also outperforms the state-of-the-art labeling-free methods in 50 out of 52 cases and selection-labeling-based methods in 96 out of 128 cases.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.