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Prediction models are increasingly proposed for guiding treatment decisions, but most fail to address the special role of treatments, leading to inappropriate use. This paper highlights the limitations of using standard prediction models for treatment decision support. We identify 'causal blind spots' in three common approaches to handling treatments in prediction modelling and illustrate potential harmful consequences in several medical applications. We advocate for an extension of guidelines for development, reporting, clinical evaluation and monitoring of prediction models to ensure that the intended use of the model is matched to an appropriate risk estimand. For decision support this requires a shift towards developing predictions under the specific treatment options under consideration ('predictions under interventions'). We argue that this will improve the efficacy of prediction models in guiding treatment decisions and prevent potential negative effects on patient outcomes.

Detecting objects across various scales remains a significant challenge in computer vision, particularly in tasks such as Rice Leaf Disease (RLD) detection, where objects exhibit considerable scale variations. Traditional object detection methods often struggle to address these variations, resulting in missed detections or reduced accuracy. In this study, we propose the multi-scale Attention Pyramid module (mAPm), a novel approach that integrates dilated convolutions into the Feature Pyramid Network (FPN) to enhance multi-scale information ex-traction. Additionally, we incorporate a global Multi-Head Self-Attention (MHSA) mechanism and a deconvolutional layer to refine the up-sampling process. We evaluate mAPm on YOLOv7 using the MRLD and COCO datasets. Compared to vanilla FPN, BiFPN, NAS-FPN, PANET, and ACFPN, mAPm achieved a significant improvement in Average Precision (AP), with a +2.61% increase on the MRLD dataset compared to the baseline FPN method in YOLOv7. This demonstrates its effectiveness in handling scale variations. Furthermore, the versatility of mAPm allows its integration into various FPN-based object detection models, showcasing its potential to advance object detection techniques.

The latent space item response model (LSIRM; Jeon et al., 2021) allows us to show interactions between respondents and items in item response data by embedding both items and respondents in a shared and unobserved metric space. The R package lsirm12pl implements Bayesian estimation of the LSIRM and its extensions for different response types, base model specifications, and missing data. Further, the lsirm12pl offers methods to improve model utilization and interpretation, such as clustering of item positions in an estimated interaction map. lsirm12pl also provides convenient summary and plotting options to assess and process estimated results. In this paper, we give an overview of the methodological basis of LSIRM and describe the LSIRM extensions considered in the package. We then present the utilization of the package lsirm12pl with real data examples that are contained in the package.

We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the outcome ($Y$) and the covariates ($X$). We propose to reweight the training samples to adjust for an identifiable covariate shift while protecting against worst-case conditional distribution shift bounded in an $f$-divergence ball. Based on ideas from conformal inference and distributionally robust learning, we present an algorithm that outputs (approximately) valid and efficient prediction intervals in the presence of distributional shifts. As a use case, we apply the framework to sensitivity analysis of individual treatment effects with hidden confounding. The proposed methods are evaluated in simulation studies and three real data applications, demonstrating superior robustness and efficiency compared with existing benchmarks.

In practical applications, effectively segmenting cracks in large-scale computed tomography (CT) images holds significant importance for understanding the structural integrity of materials. However, classical methods and Machine Learning algorithms often incur high computational costs when dealing with the substantial size of input images. Hence, a robust algorithm is needed to pre-detect crack regions, enabling focused analysis and reducing computational overhead. The proposed approach addresses this challenge by offering a streamlined method for identifying crack regions in CT images with high probability. By efficiently identifying areas of interest, our algorithm allows for a more focused examination of potential anomalies within the material structure. Through comprehensive testing on both semi-synthetic and real 3D CT images, we validate the efficiency of our approach in enhancing crack segmentation while reducing computational resource requirements.

Multifidelity models integrate data from multiple sources to produce a single approximator for the underlying process. Dense low-fidelity samples are used to reduce interpolation error, while sparse high-fidelity samples are used to compensate for bias or noise in the low-fidelity samples. Deep Gaussian processes (GPs) are attractive for multifidelity modelling as they are non-parametric, robust to overfitting, perform well for small datasets, and, critically, can capture nonlinear and input-dependent relationships between data of different fidelities. Many datasets naturally contain gradient data, especially when they are generated by computational models that are compatible with automatic differentiation or have adjoint solutions. Principally, this work extends deep GPs to incorporate gradient data. We demonstrate this method on an analytical test problem and a realistic partial differential equation problem, where we predict the aerodynamic coefficients of a hypersonic flight vehicle over a range of flight conditions and geometries. In both examples, the gradient-enhanced deep GP outperforms a gradient-enhanced linear GP model and their non-gradient-enhanced counterparts.

Machine unlearning techniques, which involve retracting data records and reducing influence of said data on trained models, help with the user privacy protection objective but incur significant computational costs. Weight perturbation-based unlearning is a general approach, but it typically involves globally modifying the parameters. We propose fine-grained Top-K and Random-k parameters perturbed inexact machine unlearning strategies that address the privacy needs while keeping the computational costs tractable. In order to demonstrate the efficacy of our strategies we also tackle the challenge of evaluating the effectiveness of machine unlearning by considering the model's generalization performance across both unlearning and remaining data. To better assess the unlearning effect and model generalization, we propose novel metrics, namely, the forgetting rate and memory retention rate. However, for inexact machine unlearning, current metrics are inadequate in quantifying the degree of forgetting that occurs after unlearning strategies are applied. To address this, we introduce SPD-GAN, which subtly perturbs the distribution of data targeted for unlearning. Then, we evaluate the degree of unlearning by measuring the performance difference of the models on the perturbed unlearning data before and after the unlearning process. By implementing these innovative techniques and metrics, we achieve computationally efficacious privacy protection in machine learning applications without significant sacrifice of model performance. Furthermore, this approach provides a novel method for evaluating the degree of unlearning.

Finite sample inference for Cox models is an important problem in many settings, such as clinical trials. Bayesian procedures provide a means for finite sample inference and incorporation of prior information if MCMC algorithms and posteriors are well behaved. On the other hand, estimation procedures should also retain inferential properties in high dimensional settings. In addition, estimation procedures should be able to incorporate constraints and multilevel modeling such as cure models and frailty models in a straightforward manner. In order to tackle these modeling challenges, we propose a uniformly ergodic Gibbs sampler for a broad class of convex set constrained multilevel Cox models. We develop two key strategies. First, we exploit a connection between Cox models and negative binomial processes through the Poisson process to reduce Bayesian computation to iterative Gaussian sampling. Next, we appeal to sufficient dimension reduction to address the difficult computation of nonparametric baseline hazards, allowing for the collapse of the Markov transition operator within the Gibbs sampler based on sufficient statistics. We demonstrate our approach using open source data and simulations.

The growing availability of generative AI technologies such as large language models (LLMs) has significant implications for creative work. This paper explores twofold aspects of integrating LLMs into the creative process - the divergence stage of idea generation, and the convergence stage of evaluation and selection of ideas. We devised a collaborative group-AI Brainwriting ideation framework, which incorporated an LLM as an enhancement into the group ideation process, and evaluated the idea generation process and the resulted solution space. To assess the potential of using LLMs in the idea evaluation process, we design an evaluation engine and compared it to idea ratings assigned by three expert and six novice evaluators. Our findings suggest that integrating LLM in Brainwriting could enhance both the ideation process and its outcome. We also provide evidence that LLMs can support idea evaluation. We conclude by discussing implications for HCI education and practice.