The Poisson multinomial distribution (PMD) describes the distribution of the sum of $n$ independent but non-identically distributed random vectors, in which each random vector is of length $m$ with 0/1 valued elements and only one of its elements can take value 1 with a certain probability. Those probabilities are different for the $m$ elements across the $n$ random vectors, and form an $n \times m$ matrix with row sum equals to 1. We call this $n\times m$ matrix the success probability matrix (SPM). Each SPM uniquely defines a PMD. The PMD is useful in many areas such as, voting theory, ecological inference, and machine learning. The distribution functions of PMD, however, are usually difficult to compute. In this paper, we develop efficient methods to compute the probability mass function (pmf) for the PMD using multivariate Fourier transform, normal approximation, and simulations. We study the accuracy and efficiency of those methods and give recommendations for which methods to use under various scenarios. We also illustrate the use of the PMD via three applications, namely, in voting probability calculation, aggregated data inference, and uncertainty quantification in classification. We build an R package that implements the proposed methods, and illustrate the package with examples.
Federated learning (FL) aims to minimize the communication complexity of training a model over heterogeneous data distributed across many clients. A common approach is local methods, where clients take multiple optimization steps over local data before communicating with the server (e.g., FedAvg). Local methods can exploit similarity between clients' data. However, in existing analyses, this comes at the cost of slow convergence in terms of the dependence on the number of communication rounds R. On the other hand, global methods, where clients simply return a gradient vector in each round (e.g., SGD), converge faster in terms of R but fail to exploit the similarity between clients even when clients are homogeneous. We propose FedChain, an algorithmic framework that combines the strengths of local methods and global methods to achieve fast convergence in terms of R while leveraging the similarity between clients. Using FedChain, we instantiate algorithms that improve upon previously known rates in the general convex and PL settings, and are near-optimal (via an algorithm-independent lower bound that we show) for problems that satisfy strong convexity. Empirical results support this theoretical gain over existing methods.
Covariance estimation for matrix-valued data has received an increasing interest in applications. Unlike previous works that rely heavily on matrix normal distribution assumption and the requirement of fixed matrix size, we propose a class of distribution-free regularized covariance estimation methods for high-dimensional matrix data under a separability condition and a bandable covariance structure. Under these conditions, the original covariance matrix is decomposed into a Kronecker product of two bandable small covariance matrices representing the variability over row and column directions. We formulate a unified framework for estimating bandable covariance, and introduce an efficient algorithm based on rank one unconstrained Kronecker product approximation. The convergence rates of the proposed estimators are established, and the derived minimax lower bound shows our proposed estimator is rate-optimal under certain divergence regimes of matrix size. We further introduce a class of robust covariance estimators and provide theoretical guarantees to deal with heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate the superior finite-sample performance of our methods using simulations and real applications from a gridded temperature anomalies dataset and a S&P 500 stock data analysis.
We study the distributed minimum spanning tree (MST) problem, a fundamental problem in distributed computing. It is well-known that distributed MST can be solved in $\tilde{O}(D+\sqrt{n})$ rounds in the standard CONGEST model (where $n$ is the network size and $D$ is the network diameter) and this is essentially the best possible round complexity (up to logarithmic factors). However, in resource-constrained networks such as ad hoc wireless and sensor networks, nodes spending so much time can lead to significant spending of resources such as energy. Motivated by the above consideration, we study distributed algorithms for MST under the \emph{sleeping model} [Chatterjee et al., PODC 2020], a model for design and analysis of resource-efficient distributed algorithms. In the sleeping model, a node can be in one of two modes in any round -- \emph{sleeping} or \emph{awake} (unlike the traditional model where nodes are always awake). Only the rounds in which a node is \emph{awake} are counted, while \emph{sleeping} rounds are ignored. A node spends resources only in the awake rounds and hence the main goal is to minimize the \emph{awake complexity} of a distributed algorithm, the worst-case number of rounds any node is awake. We present deterministic and randomized distributed MST algorithms that have an \emph{optimal} awake complexity of $O(\log n)$ time with a matching lower bound. We also show that our randomized awake-optimal algorithm has essentially the best possible round complexity by presenting a lower bound of $\tilde{\Omega}(n)$ on the product of the awake and round complexity of any distributed algorithm (including randomized) that outputs an MST, where $\tilde{\Omega}$ hides a $1/(\text{polylog } n)$ factor.
The stochastic gradient Langevin Dynamics is one of the most fundamental algorithms to solve sampling problems and non-convex optimization appearing in several machine learning applications. Especially, its variance reduced versions have nowadays gained particular attention. In this paper, we study two variants of this kind, namely, the Stochastic Variance Reduced Gradient Langevin Dynamics and the Stochastic Recursive Gradient Langevin Dynamics. We prove their convergence to the objective distribution in terms of KL-divergence under the sole assumptions of smoothness and Log-Sobolev inequality which are weaker conditions than those used in prior works for these algorithms. With the batch size and the inner loop length set to $\sqrt{n}$, the gradient complexity to achieve an $\epsilon$-precision is $\tilde{O}((n+dn^{1/2}\epsilon^{-1})\gamma^2 L^2\alpha^{-2})$, which is an improvement from any previous analyses. We also show some essential applications of our result to non-convex optimization.
At the same time that AI and machine learning are becoming central to human life, their potential harms become more vivid. In the presence of such drawbacks, a critical question one needs to address before using these data-driven technologies to make a decision is whether to trust their outcomes. Aligned with recent efforts on data-centric AI, this paper proposes a novel approach to address the trust question through the lens of data, by associating data sets with distrust quantification that specify their scope of use for predicting future query points. The distrust values raise warning signals when a prediction based on a dataset is questionable and are valuable alongside other techniques for trustworthy AI. We propose novel algorithms for computing the distrust values in the neighborhood of a query point efficiently and effectively. Learning the necessary components of the measures from the data itself, our sub-linear algorithms scale to very large and multi-dimensional settings. Besides demonstrating the efficiency of our algorithms, our extensive experiments reflect a consistent correlation between distrust values and model performance. This underscores the message that when the distrust value of a query point is high, the prediction outcome should be discarded or at least not considered for critical decisions.
Present-day atomistic simulations generate long trajectories of ever more complex systems. Analyzing these data, discovering metastable states, and uncovering their nature is becoming increasingly challenging. In this paper, we first use the variational approach to conformation dynamics to discover the slowest dynamical modes of the simulations. This allows the different metastable states of the system to be located and organized hierarchically. The physical descriptors that characterize metastable states are discovered by means of a machine learning method. We show in the cases of two proteins, Chignolin and Bovine Pancreatic Trypsin Inhibitor, how such analysis can be effortlessly performed in a matter of seconds. Another strength of our approach is that it can be applied to the analysis of both unbiased and biased simulations.
There are many important high dimensional function classes that have fast agnostic learning algorithms when strong assumptions on the distribution of examples can be made, such as Gaussianity or uniformity over the domain. But how can one be sufficiently confident that the data indeed satisfies the distributional assumption, so that one can trust in the output quality of the agnostic learning algorithm? We propose a model by which to systematically study the design of tester-learner pairs $(\mathcal{A},\mathcal{T})$, such that if the distribution on examples in the data passes the tester $\mathcal{T}$ then one can safely trust the output of the agnostic learner $\mathcal{A}$ on the data. To demonstrate the power of the model, we apply it to the classical problem of agnostically learning halfspaces under the standard Gaussian distribution and present a tester-learner pair with a combined run-time of $n^{\tilde{O}(1/\epsilon^4)}$. This qualitatively matches that of the best known ordinary agnostic learning algorithms for this task. In contrast, finite sample Gaussian distribution testers do not exist for the $L_1$ and EMD distance measures. A key step in the analysis is a novel characterization of concentration and anti-concentration properties of a distribution whose low-degree moments approximately match those of a Gaussian. We also use tools from polynomial approximation theory. In contrast, we show strong lower bounds on the combined run-times of tester-learner pairs for the problems of agnostically learning convex sets under the Gaussian distribution and for monotone Boolean functions under the uniform distribution over $\{0,1\}^n$. Through these lower bounds we exhibit natural problems where there is a dramatic gap between standard agnostic learning run-time and the run-time of the best tester-learner pair.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.
Machine learning techniques have deeply rooted in our everyday life. However, since it is knowledge- and labor-intensive to pursue good learning performance, human experts are heavily involved in every aspect of machine learning. In order to make machine learning techniques easier to apply and reduce the demand for experienced human experts, automated machine learning (AutoML) has emerged as a hot topic with both industrial and academic interest. In this paper, we provide an up to date survey on AutoML. First, we introduce and define the AutoML problem, with inspiration from both realms of automation and machine learning. Then, we propose a general AutoML framework that not only covers most existing approaches to date but also can guide the design for new methods. Subsequently, we categorize and review the existing works from two aspects, i.e., the problem setup and the employed techniques. Finally, we provide a detailed analysis of AutoML approaches and explain the reasons underneath their successful applications. We hope this survey can serve as not only an insightful guideline for AutoML beginners but also an inspiration for future research.