Probability intervals are an attractive tool for reasoning under uncertainty. Unlike belief functions, though, they lack a natural probability transformation to be used for decision making in a utility theory framework. In this paper we propose the use of the intersection probability, a transform derived originally for belief functions in the framework of the geometric approach to uncertainty, as the most natural such transformation. We recall its rationale and definition, compare it with other candidate representives of systems of probability intervals, discuss its credal rationale as focus of a pair of simplices in the probability simplex, and outline a possible decision making framework for probability intervals, analogous to the Transferable Belief Model for belief functions.
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The approximate uniform sampling of graph realizations with a given degree sequence is an everyday task in several social science, computer science, engineering etc. projects. One approach is using Markov chains. The best available current result about the well-studied switch Markov chain is that it is rapidly mixing on P-stable degree sequences (see DOI:10.1016/j.ejc.2021.103421). The switch Markov chain does not change any degree sequence. However, there are cases where degree intervals are specified rather than a single degree sequence. (A natural scenario where this problem arises is in hypothesis testing on social networks that are only partially observed.) Rechner, Strowick, and M\"uller-Hannemann introduced in 2018 the notion of degree interval Markov chain which uses three (separately well-studied) local operations (switch, hinge-flip and toggle), and employing on degree sequence realizations where any two sequences under scrutiny have very small coordinate-wise distance. Recently Amanatidis and Kleer published a beautiful paper (arXiv:2110.09068), showing that the degree interval Markov chain is rapidly mixing if the sequences are coming from a system of very thin intervals which are centered not far from a regular degree sequence. In this paper we extend substantially their result, showing that the degree interval Markov chain is rapidly mixing if the intervals are centred at P-stable degree sequences.
In recent years, with the rapid growth of Internet data, the number and types of scientific and technological resources are also rapidly expanding. However, the increase in the number and category of information data will also increase the cost of information acquisition. For technology-based enterprises or users, in addition to general papers, patents, etc., policies related to technology or the development of their industries should also belong to a type of scientific and technological resources. The cost and difficulty of acquiring users. Extracting valuable science and technology policy resources from a huge amount of data with mixed contents and providing accurate and fast retrieval will help to break down information barriers and reduce the cost of information acquisition, which has profound social significance and social utility. This article focuses on the difficulties and problems in the field of science and technology policy, and introduces related technologies and developments.
Adaptive and intelligent user interfaces have been proposed as a critical component of a successful extended reality (XR) system. In particular, a predictive system can make inferences about a user and provide them with task-relevant recommendations or adaptations. However, we believe such adaptive interfaces should carefully consider the overall \emph{cost} of interactions to better address uncertainty of predictions. In this position paper, we discuss a computational approach to adapt XR interfaces, with the goal of improving user experience and performance. Our novel model, applied to menu selection tasks, simulates user interactions by considering both cognitive and motor costs. In contrast to greedy algorithms that adapt based on predictions alone, our model holistically accounts for costs and benefits of adaptations towards adapting the interface and providing optimal recommendations to the user.
Approximate-message passing (AMP) algorithms have become an important element of high-dimensional statistical inference, mostly due to their adaptability and concentration properties, the state evolution (SE) equations. This is demonstrated by the growing number of new iterations proposed for increasingly complex problems, ranging from multi-layer inference to low-rank matrix estimation with elaborate priors. In this paper, we address the following questions: is there a structure underlying all AMP iterations that unifies them in a common framework? Can we use such a structure to give a modular proof of state evolution equations, adaptable to new AMP iterations without reproducing each time the full argument ? We propose an answer to both questions, showing that AMP instances can be generically indexed by an oriented graph. This enables to give a unified interpretation of these iterations, independent from the problem they solve, and a way of composing them arbitrarily. We then show that all AMP iterations indexed by such a graph admit rigorous SE equations, extending the reach of previous proofs, and proving a number of recent heuristic derivations of those equations. Our proof naturally includes non-separable functions and we show how existing refinements, such as spatial coupling or matrix-valued variables, can be combined with our framework.
In a sports competition, a team might lose a powerful incentive to exert full effort if its final rank does not depend on the outcome of the matches still to be played. Therefore, the organiser should reduce the probability of such a situation to the extent possible. Our paper provides a classification scheme to identify these weakly (where one team is indifferent) or strongly (where both teams are indifferent) stakeless games. A statistical model is estimated to simulate the UEFA Champions League groups and compare the candidate schedules used in the 2021/22 season according to the competitiveness of the matches played in the last round(s). The option followed in four of the eight groups is found to be optimal under a wide set of parameters. Minimising the number of strongly stakeless matches is verified to be a likely goal in the computer draw of the fixture that remains hidden from the public.
Computing a maximum independent set (MaxIS) is a fundamental NP-hard problem in graph theory, which has important applications in a wide spectrum of fields. Since graphs in many applications are changing frequently over time, the problem of maintaining a MaxIS over dynamic graphs has attracted increasing attention over the past few years. Due to the intractability of maintaining an exact MaxIS, this paper aims to develop efficient algorithms that can maintain an approximate MaxIS with an accuracy guarantee theoretically. In particular, we propose a framework that maintains a $(\frac{\Delta}{2} + 1)$-approximate MaxIS over dynamic graphs and prove that it achieves a constant approximation ratio in many real-world networks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first non-trivial approximability result for the dynamic MaxIS problem. Following the framework, we implement an efficient linear-time dynamic algorithm and a more effective dynamic algorithm with near-linear expected time complexity. Our thorough experiments over real and synthetic graphs demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithms, especially when the graph is highly dynamic.
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.
We recall some of the history of the information-theoretic approach to deriving core results in probability theory and indicate parts of the recent resurgence of interest in this area with current progress along several interesting directions. Then we give a new information-theoretic proof of a finite version of de Finetti's classical representation theorem for finite-valued random variables. We derive an upper bound on the relative entropy between the distribution of the first $k$ in a sequence of $n$ exchangeable random variables, and an appropriate mixture over product distributions. The mixing measure is characterised as the law of the empirical measure of the original sequence, and de Finetti's result is recovered as a corollary. The proof is nicely motivated by the Gibbs conditioning principle in connection with statistical mechanics, and it follows along an appealing sequence of steps. The technical estimates required for these steps are obtained via the use of a collection of combinatorial tools known within information theory as `the method of types.'
Decomposition-based evolutionary algorithms have become fairly popular for many-objective optimization in recent years. However, the existing decomposition methods still are quite sensitive to the various shapes of frontiers of many-objective optimization problems (MaOPs). On the one hand, the cone decomposition methods such as the penalty-based boundary intersection (PBI) are incapable of acquiring uniform frontiers for MaOPs with very convex frontiers. On the other hand, the parallel reference lines of the parallel decomposition methods including the normal boundary intersection (NBI) might result in poor diversity because of under-sampling near the boundaries for MaOPs with concave frontiers. In this paper, a collaborative decomposition method is first proposed to integrate the advantages of parallel decomposition and cone decomposition to overcome their respective disadvantages. This method inherits the NBI-style Tchebycheff function as a convergence measure to heighten the convergence and uniformity of distribution of the PBI method. Moreover, this method also adaptively tunes the extent of rotating an NBI reference line towards a PBI reference line for every subproblem to enhance the diversity of distribution of the NBI method. Furthermore, a collaborative decomposition-based evolutionary algorithm (CoDEA) is presented for many-objective optimization. A collaborative decomposition-based environmental selection mechanism is primarily designed in CoDEA to rank all the individuals associated with the same PBI reference line in the boundary layer and pick out the best ranks. CoDEA is compared with several popular algorithms on 85 benchmark test instances. The experimental results show that CoDEA achieves high competitiveness benefiting from the collaborative decomposition maintaining a good balance among the convergence, uniformity, and diversity of distribution.
Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.
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