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We consider the task of estimating a network cascade as fast as possible. The cascade is assumed to spread according to a general Susceptible-Infected process with heterogeneous transmission rates from an unknown source in the network. While the propagation is not directly observable, noisy information about its spread can be gathered through multiple rounds of error-prone diagnostic testing. We propose a novel adaptive procedure which quickly outputs an estimate for the cascade source and the full spread under this observation model. Remarkably, under mild conditions on the network topology, our procedure is able to estimate the full spread of the cascade in an $n$-vertex network, before $\mathrm{poly log}(n)$ vertices are affected by the cascade. We complement our theoretical analysis with simulation results illustrating the effectiveness of our methods.

Modern machine learning approaches excel in static settings where a large amount of i.i.d. training data are available for a given task. In a dynamic environment, though, an intelligent agent needs to be able to transfer knowledge and re-use learned components across domains. It has been argued that this may be possible through causal models, aiming to mirror the modularity of the real world in terms of independent causal mechanisms. However, the true causal structure underlying a given set of data is generally not identifiable, so it is desirable to have means to quantify differences between models (e.g., between the ground truth and an estimate), on both the observational and interventional level. In the present work, we introduce the Interventional Kullback-Leibler (IKL) divergence to quantify both structural and distributional differences between models based on a finite set of multi-environment distributions generated by interventions from the ground truth. Since we generally cannot quantify all differences between causal models for every finite set of interventional distributions, we propose a sufficient condition on the intervention targets to identify subsets of observed variables on which the models provably agree or disagree.

This paper is concerned with games of infinite duration played over potentially infinite graphs. Recently, Ohlmann (LICS 2022) presented a characterisation of objectives admitting optimal positional strategies, by means of universal graphs: an objective is positional if and only if it admits well-ordered monotone universal graphs. We extend Ohlmann's characterisation to encompass (finite or infinite) memory upper bounds. We prove that objectives admitting optimal strategies with $\varepsilon$-memory less than $m$ (a memory that cannot be updated when reading an $\varepsilon$-edge) are exactly those which admit well-founded monotone universal graphs whose antichains have size bounded by $m$. We also give a characterisation of chromatic memory by means of appropriate universal structures. Our results apply to finite as well as infinite memory bounds (for instance, to objectives with finite but unbounded memory, or with countable memory strategies). We illustrate the applicability of our framework by carrying out a few case studies, we provide examples witnessing limitations of our approach, and we discuss general closure properties which follow from our results.

Mobile robots are ubiquitous. Such vehicles benefit from well-designed and calibrated control algorithms ensuring their task execution under precise uncertainty bounds. Yet, in tasks involving humans in the loop, such as elderly or mobility impaired, the problem takes a new dimension. In such cases, the system needs not only to compensate for uncertainty and volatility in its operation but at the same time to anticipate and offer responses that go beyond robust. Such robots operate in cluttered, complex environments, akin to human residences, and need to face during their operation sensor and, even, actuator faults, and still operate. This is where our thesis comes into the foreground. We propose a new control design framework based on the principles of antifragility. Such a design is meant to offer a high uncertainty anticipation given previous exposure to failures and faults, and exploit this anticipation capacity to provide performance beyond robust. In the current instantiation of antifragile control applied to mobile robot trajectory tracking, we provide controller design steps, the analysis of performance under parametrizable uncertainty and faults, as well as an extended comparative evaluation against state-of-the-art controllers. We believe in the potential antifragile control has in achieving closed-loop performance in the face of uncertainty and volatility by using its exposures to uncertainty to increase its capacity to anticipate and compensate for such events.

Autonomous vehicles and robots require increasingly more robustness and reliability to meet the demands of modern tasks. These requirements specially apply to cameras onboard such vehicles because they are the predominant sensors to acquire information about the environment and support actions. Cameras must maintain proper functionality and take automatic countermeasures if necessary. However, few works examine the practical use of a general condition monitoring approach for cameras and designs countermeasures in the context of an envisaged high-level application. We propose a generic and interpretable self-health-maintenance framework for cameras based on data- and physically-grounded models. To this end, we determine two reliable, real-time capable estimators for typical image effects of a camera in poor condition (blur, noise phenomena and most common combinations) by comparing traditional and retrained machine learning-based approaches in extensive experiments. Furthermore, we demonstrate on a real-world ground vehicle how one can adjust the camera parameters to achieve optimal whole-system capability based on experimental (non-linear and non-monotonic) input-output performance curves, using object detection, motion blur and sensor noise as examples. Our framework not only provides a practical ready-to-use solution to evaluate and maintain the health of cameras, but can also serve as a basis for extensions to tackle more sophisticated problems that combine additional data sources (e.g., sensor or environment parameters) empirically in order to attain fully reliable and robust machines.

Although extensive research in emergency collision avoidance has been carried out for straight or curved roads in a highway scenario, a general method that could be implemented for all road environments has not been thoroughly explored. Moreover, most current algorithms don't consider collision mitigation in an emergency. This functionality is essential since the problem may have no feasible solution. We propose a safe controller using model predictive control and artificial potential function to address these problems. A new artificial potential function inspired by line charge is proposed as the cost function for our model predictive controller. The vehicle dynamics and actuator limitations are set as constraints. The new artificial potential function considers the shape of all objects. In particular, the artificial potential function we proposed has the flexibility to fit the shape of the road structures, such as the intersection. We could also realize collision mitigation for a specific part of the vehicle by increasing the charge quantity at the corresponding place. We have tested our methods in 192 cases from 8 different scenarios in simulation with two different models. The simulation results show that the success rate of the proposed safe controller is 20% higher than using HJ-reachability with system decomposition by using a unicycle model. It could also decrease 43% of collision that happens at the pre-assigned part. The method is further validated in a dynamic bicycle model.

A further understanding of cause and effect within observational data is critical across many domains, such as economics, health care, public policy, web mining, online advertising, and marketing campaigns. Although significant advances have been made to overcome the challenges in causal effect estimation with observational data, such as missing counterfactual outcomes and selection bias between treatment and control groups, the existing methods mainly focus on source-specific and stationary observational data. Such learning strategies assume that all observational data are already available during the training phase and from only one source. This practical concern of accessibility is ubiquitous in various academic and industrial applications. That's what it boiled down to: in the era of big data, we face new challenges in causal inference with observational data, i.e., the extensibility for incrementally available observational data, the adaptability for extra domain adaptation problem except for the imbalance between treatment and control groups, and the accessibility for an enormous amount of data. In this position paper, we formally define the problem of continual treatment effect estimation, describe its research challenges, and then present possible solutions to this problem. Moreover, we will discuss future research directions on this topic.

Federated learning (FL) is an emerging, privacy-preserving machine learning paradigm, drawing tremendous attention in both academia and industry. A unique characteristic of FL is heterogeneity, which resides in the various hardware specifications and dynamic states across the participating devices. Theoretically, heterogeneity can exert a huge influence on the FL training process, e.g., causing a device unavailable for training or unable to upload its model updates. Unfortunately, these impacts have never been systematically studied and quantified in existing FL literature. In this paper, we carry out the first empirical study to characterize the impacts of heterogeneity in FL. We collect large-scale data from 136k smartphones that can faithfully reflect heterogeneity in real-world settings. We also build a heterogeneity-aware FL platform that complies with the standard FL protocol but with heterogeneity in consideration. Based on the data and the platform, we conduct extensive experiments to compare the performance of state-of-the-art FL algorithms under heterogeneity-aware and heterogeneity-unaware settings. Results show that heterogeneity causes non-trivial performance degradation in FL, including up to 9.2% accuracy drop, 2.32x lengthened training time, and undermined fairness. Furthermore, we analyze potential impact factors and find that device failure and participant bias are two potential factors for performance degradation. Our study provides insightful implications for FL practitioners. On the one hand, our findings suggest that FL algorithm designers consider necessary heterogeneity during the evaluation. On the other hand, our findings urge system providers to design specific mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of heterogeneity.

Behaviors of the synthetic characters in current military simulations are limited since they are generally generated by rule-based and reactive computational models with minimal intelligence. Such computational models cannot adapt to reflect the experience of the characters, resulting in brittle intelligence for even the most effective behavior models devised via costly and labor-intensive processes. Observation-based behavior model adaptation that leverages machine learning and the experience of synthetic entities in combination with appropriate prior knowledge can address the issues in the existing computational behavior models to create a better training experience in military training simulations. In this paper, we introduce a framework that aims to create autonomous synthetic characters that can perform coherent sequences of believable behavior while being aware of human trainees and their needs within a training simulation. This framework brings together three mutually complementary components. The first component is a Unity-based simulation environment - Rapid Integration and Development Environment (RIDE) - supporting One World Terrain (OWT) models and capable of running and supporting machine learning experiments. The second is Shiva, a novel multi-agent reinforcement and imitation learning framework that can interface with a variety of simulation environments, and that can additionally utilize a variety of learning algorithms. The final component is the Sigma Cognitive Architecture that will augment the behavior models with symbolic and probabilistic reasoning capabilities. We have successfully created proof-of-concept behavior models leveraging this framework on realistic terrain as an essential step towards bringing machine learning into military simulations.

Since hardware resources are limited, the objective of training deep learning models is typically to maximize accuracy subject to the time and memory constraints of training and inference. We study the impact of model size in this setting, focusing on Transformer models for NLP tasks that are limited by compute: self-supervised pretraining and high-resource machine translation. We first show that even though smaller Transformer models execute faster per iteration, wider and deeper models converge in significantly fewer steps. Moreover, this acceleration in convergence typically outpaces the additional computational overhead of using larger models. Therefore, the most compute-efficient training strategy is to counterintuitively train extremely large models but stop after a small number of iterations. This leads to an apparent trade-off between the training efficiency of large Transformer models and the inference efficiency of small Transformer models. However, we show that large models are more robust to compression techniques such as quantization and pruning than small models. Consequently, one can get the best of both worlds: heavily compressed, large models achieve higher accuracy than lightly compressed, small models.