The assumption of no unmeasured confounders is a critical but unverifiable assumption required for causal inference yet quantitative sensitivity analyses to assess robustness of real-world evidence remains underutilized. The lack of use is likely in part due to complexity of implementation and often specific and restrictive data requirements required for application of each method. With the advent of sensitivity analyses methods that are broadly applicable in that they do not require identification of a specific unmeasured confounder, along with publicly available code for implementation, roadblocks toward broader use are decreasing. To spur greater application, here we present a best practice guidance to address the potential for unmeasured confounding at both the design and analysis stages, including a set of framing questions and an analytic toolbox for researchers. The questions at the design stage guide the research through steps evaluating the potential robustness of the design while encouraging gathering of additional data to reduce uncertainty due to potential confounding. At the analysis stage, the questions guide researchers to quantifying the robustness of the observed result and providing researchers with a clearer indication of the robustness of their conclusions. We demonstrate the application of the guidance using simulated data based on a real-world fibromyalgia study, applying multiple methods from our analytic toolbox for illustration purposes.
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The detection of malicious deepfakes is a constantly evolving problem that requires continuous monitoring of detectors to ensure they can detect image manipulations generated by the latest emerging models. In this paper, we investigate the vulnerability of single-image deepfake detectors to black-box attacks created by the newest generation of generative methods, namely Denoising Diffusion Models (DDMs). Our experiments are run on FaceForensics++, a widely used deepfake benchmark consisting of manipulated images generated with various techniques for face identity swapping and face reenactment. Attacks are crafted through guided reconstruction of existing deepfakes with a proposed DDM approach for face restoration. Our findings indicate that employing just a single denoising diffusion step in the reconstruction process of a deepfake can significantly reduce the likelihood of detection, all without introducing any perceptible image modifications. While training detectors using attack examples demonstrated some effectiveness, it was observed that discriminators trained on fully diffusion-based deepfakes exhibited limited generalizability when presented with our attacks.
Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked growing concerns among experts, policymakers, and world leaders regarding the potential for increasingly advanced AI systems to pose existential risks. This paper reviews the evidence for existential risks from AI via misalignment, where AI systems develop goals misaligned with human values, and power-seeking, where misaligned AIs actively seek power. The review examines empirical findings, conceptual arguments and expert opinion relating to specification gaming, goal misgeneralization, and power-seeking. The current state of the evidence is found to be concerning but inconclusive regarding the existence of extreme forms of misaligned power-seeking. Strong empirical evidence of specification gaming combined with strong conceptual evidence for power-seeking make it difficult to dismiss the possibility of existential risk from misaligned power-seeking. On the other hand, to date there are no public empirical examples of misaligned power-seeking in AI systems, and so arguments that future systems will pose an existential risk remain somewhat speculative. Given the current state of the evidence, it is hard to be extremely confident either that misaligned power-seeking poses a large existential risk, or that it poses no existential risk. The fact that we cannot confidently rule out existential risk from AI via misaligned power-seeking is cause for serious concern.
The feature interaction problem occurs when two or more independently developed components interact with each other in unanticipated ways, resulting in undesirable system behaviors. Feature interaction problems remain a challenge for emerging domains in cyber-physical systems (CPS), such as the Internet of Things and autonomous drones. Existing techniques for resolving feature interactions take a "winner-takes-all" approach, where one out of the conflicting features is selected as the most desirable one, and the rest are disabled. However, when multiple of the conflicting features fulfill important system requirements, being forced to select one of them can result in an undesirable system outcome. In this paper, we propose a new resolution approach that allows all of the conflicting features to continue to partially fulfill their requirements during the resolution process. In particular, our approach leverages the idea of adaptive requirement weakening, which involves one or more features temporarily weakening their level of performance in order to co-exist with the other features in a consistent manner. Given feature requirements specified in Signal Temporal Logic (STL), we propose an automated method and a runtime architecture for automatically weakening the requirements to resolve a conflict. We demonstrate our approach through case studies on feature interactions in autonomous drones.
In the evolving landscape of cybersecurity, the utilization of cyber deception has gained prominence as a proactive defense strategy against sophisticated attacks. This paper presents a comprehensive survey that investigates the crucial network requirements essential for the successful implementation of effective cyber deception techniques. With a focus on diverse network architectures and topologies, we delve into the intricate relationship between network characteristics and the deployment of deception mechanisms. This survey provides an in-depth analysis of prevailing cyber deception frameworks, highlighting their strengths and limitations in meeting the requirements for optimal efficacy. By synthesizing insights from both theoretical and practical perspectives, we contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the network prerequisites crucial for enabling robust and adaptable cyber deception strategies.
The minimum linear ordering problem (MLOP) generalizes well-known combinatorial optimization problems such as minimum linear arrangement and minimum sum set cover. MLOP seeks to minimize an aggregated cost $f(\cdot)$ due to an ordering $\sigma$ of the items (say $[n]$), i.e., $\min_{\sigma} \sum_{i\in [n]} f(E_{i,\sigma})$, where $E_{i,\sigma}$ is the set of items mapped by $\sigma$ to indices $[i]$. Despite an extensive literature on MLOP variants and approximations for these, it was unclear whether the graphic matroid MLOP was NP-hard. We settle this question through non-trivial reductions from mininimum latency vertex cover and minimum sum vertex cover problems. We further propose a new combinatorial algorithm for approximating monotone submodular MLOP, using the theory of principal partitions. This is in contrast to the rounding algorithm by Iwata, Tetali, and Tripathi [ITT2012], using Lov\'asz extension of submodular functions. We show a $(2-\frac{1+\ell_{f}}{1+|E|})$-approximation for monotone submodular MLOP where $\ell_{f}=\frac{f(E)}{\max_{x\in E}f(\{x\})}$ satisfies $1 \leq \ell_f \leq |E|$. Our theory provides new approximation bounds for special cases of the problem, in particular a $(2-\frac{1+r(E)}{1+|E|})$-approximation for the matroid MLOP, where $f = r$ is the rank function of a matroid. We further show that minimum latency vertex cover (MLVC) is $\frac{4}{3}$-approximable, by which we also lower bound the integrality gap of its natural LP relaxation, which might be of independent interest.
High sample complexity has long been a challenge for RL. On the other hand, humans learn to perform tasks not only from interaction or demonstrations, but also by reading unstructured text documents, e.g., instruction manuals. Instruction manuals and wiki pages are among the most abundant data that could inform agents of valuable features and policies or task-specific environmental dynamics and reward structures. Therefore, we hypothesize that the ability to utilize human-written instruction manuals to assist learning policies for specific tasks should lead to a more efficient and better-performing agent. We propose the Read and Reward framework. Read and Reward speeds up RL algorithms on Atari games by reading manuals released by the Atari game developers. Our framework consists of a QA Extraction module that extracts and summarizes relevant information from the manual and a Reasoning module that evaluates object-agent interactions based on information from the manual. An auxiliary reward is then provided to a standard A2C RL agent, when interaction is detected. Experimentally, various RL algorithms obtain significant improvement in performance and training speed when assisted by our design.
Human intelligence thrives on the concept of cognitive synergy, where collaboration and information integration among different cognitive processes yield superior outcomes compared to individual cognitive processes in isolation. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated promising performance as general task-solving agents, they still struggle with tasks that require intensive domain knowledge and complex reasoning. In this work, we propose Solo Performance Prompting (SPP), which transforms a single LLM into a cognitive synergist by engaging in multi-turn self-collaboration with multiple personas. A cognitive synergist refers to an intelligent agent that collaborates with multiple minds, combining their individual strengths and knowledge, to enhance problem-solving and overall performance in complex tasks. By dynamically identifying and simulating different personas based on task inputs, SPP unleashes the potential of cognitive synergy in LLMs. We have discovered that assigning multiple, fine-grained personas in LLMs elicits better problem-solving abilities compared to using a single or fixed number of personas. We evaluate SPP on three challenging tasks: Trivia Creative Writing, Codenames Collaborative, and Logic Grid Puzzle, encompassing both knowledge-intensive and reasoning-intensive types. Unlike previous works, such as Chain-of-Thought, that solely enhance the reasoning abilities in LLMs, SPP effectively elicits internal knowledge acquisition abilities, reduces hallucination, and maintains strong reasoning capabilities. Code, data, and prompts can be found at: //github.com/MikeWangWZHL/Solo-Performance-Prompting.git.
As soon as abstract mathematical computations were adapted to computation on digital computers, the problem of efficient representation, manipulation, and communication of the numerical values in those computations arose. Strongly related to the problem of numerical representation is the problem of quantization: in what manner should a set of continuous real-valued numbers be distributed over a fixed discrete set of numbers to minimize the number of bits required and also to maximize the accuracy of the attendant computations? This perennial problem of quantization is particularly relevant whenever memory and/or computational resources are severely restricted, and it has come to the forefront in recent years due to the remarkable performance of Neural Network models in computer vision, natural language processing, and related areas. Moving from floating-point representations to low-precision fixed integer values represented in four bits or less holds the potential to reduce the memory footprint and latency by a factor of 16x; and, in fact, reductions of 4x to 8x are often realized in practice in these applications. Thus, it is not surprising that quantization has emerged recently as an important and very active sub-area of research in the efficient implementation of computations associated with Neural Networks. In this article, we survey approaches to the problem of quantizing the numerical values in deep Neural Network computations, covering the advantages/disadvantages of current methods. With this survey and its organization, we hope to have presented a useful snapshot of the current research in quantization for Neural Networks and to have given an intelligent organization to ease the evaluation of future research in this area.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.
Detecting carried objects is one of the requirements for developing systems to reason about activities involving people and objects. We present an approach to detect carried objects from a single video frame with a novel method that incorporates features from multiple scales. Initially, a foreground mask in a video frame is segmented into multi-scale superpixels. Then the human-like regions in the segmented area are identified by matching a set of extracted features from superpixels against learned features in a codebook. A carried object probability map is generated using the complement of the matching probabilities of superpixels to human-like regions and background information. A group of superpixels with high carried object probability and strong edge support is then merged to obtain the shape of the carried object. We applied our method to two challenging datasets, and results show that our method is competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art.
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