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Deep neural networks have shown remarkable performance when trained on independent and identically distributed data from a fixed set of classes. However, in real-world scenarios, it can be desirable to train models on a continuous stream of data where multiple classification tasks are presented sequentially. This scenario, known as Continual Learning (CL) poses challenges to standard learning algorithms which struggle to maintain knowledge of old tasks while learning new ones. This stability-plasticity dilemma remains central to CL and multiple metrics have been proposed to adequately measure stability and plasticity separately. However, none considers the increasing difficulty of the classification task, which inherently results in performance loss for any model. In that sense, we analyze some limitations of current metrics and identify the presence of setup-induced forgetting. Therefore, we propose new metrics that account for the task's increasing difficulty. Through experiments on benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that our proposed metrics can provide new insights into the stability-plasticity trade-off achieved by models in the continual learning environment.

We present a computational design method that optimizes the reinforcement of dental prostheses and increases the durability and fracture resistance of dentures. Our approach optimally places reinforcement, which could be implemented by modern multi-material, three-dimensional printers. The study focuses on reducing deformation by identifying regions within the structure that require reinforcement (E-glass material). Our method is applied to a three-dimensional removable lower jaw dental prosthesis and aims to improve the living quality of denture patients and pretend fracture of dental reinforcement in clinical studies. To do this, we compare the deformation results of a non-reinforced denture and a reinforced denture that has two materials. The results indicate the maximum deformation is lower and node-based displacement distribution demonstrates that the average displacement distribution is much better in the reinforced denture.

One of the central quantities of probabilistic seismic risk assessment studies is the fragility curve, which represents the probability of failure of a mechanical structure conditional to a scalar measure derived from the seismic ground motion. Estimating such curves is a difficult task because for most structures of interest, few data are available. For this reason, a wide range of the methods of the literature rely on a parametric log-normal model. Bayesian approaches allow for efficient learning of the model parameters. However, the choice of the prior distribution has a non-negligible influence on the posterior distribution, and therefore on any resulting estimate. We propose a thorough study of this parametric Bayesian estimation problem when the data are binary (i.e. data indicate the state of the structure, failure or non-failure). Using the reference prior theory as a support, we suggest an objective approach for the prior choice. This approach leads to the Jeffreys' prior which is explicitly derived for this problem for the first time. The posterior distribution is proven to be proper (i.e. it integrates to unity) with Jeffreys' prior and improper with some classical priors from the literature. The posterior distribution with Jeffreys' prior is also shown to vanish at the boundaries of the parameter domain, so sampling of the posterior distribution of the parameters does not produce anomalously small or large values, which in turn does not produce degenerate fragility curves such as unit step functions. The numerical results on three different case studies illustrate these theoretical predictions.

Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the temporal dependence structure of Hawkes processes is generally a computationally expensive task, all the more with Bayesian estimation methods. In particular, for generalised nonlinear Hawkes processes, Monte-Carlo Markov Chain methods applied to compute the doubly intractable posterior distribution are not scalable to high-dimensional processes in practice. Recently, efficient algorithms targeting a mean-field variational approximation of the posterior distribution have been proposed. In this work, we first unify existing variational Bayes approaches under a general nonparametric inference framework, and analyse the asymptotic properties of these methods under easily verifiable conditions on the prior, the variational class, and the nonlinear model. Secondly, we propose a novel sparsity-inducing procedure, and derive an adaptive mean-field variational algorithm for the popular sigmoid Hawkes processes. Our algorithm is parallelisable and therefore computationally efficient in high-dimensional setting. Through an extensive set of numerical simulations, we also demonstrate that our procedure is able to adapt to the dimensionality of the parameter of the Hawkes process, and is partially robust to some type of model mis-specification.

For multivariate data with noise variables, tandem clustering is a well-known technique that aims to improve cluster identification by first reducing the dimension. However, the usual approach using principal component analysis (PCA) has been criticized for focusing only on inertia so that the first components do not necessarily retain the structure of interest for clustering. To overcome this drawback, a new tandem clustering approach based on invariant coordinate selection (ICS) is proposed. By jointly diagonalizing two scatter matrices, ICS is designed to find structure in the data while returning affine invariant components. Some theoretical results have already been derived and guarantee that under some elliptical mixture models, the group structure can be highlighted on a subset of the first and/or last components. Nevertheless, ICS has received little attention in a clustering context. Two challenges are the choice of the pair of scatter matrices and the selection of the components to retain. For clustering purposes, it is demonstrated that the best scatter pairs consist of one scatter matrix that captures the within-cluster structure and another that captures the global structure. For the former, local shape or pairwise scatters are of great interest, as is the minimum covariance determinant (MCD) estimator based on a carefully selected subset size that is smaller than usual. The performance of ICS as a dimension reduction method is evaluated in terms of preserving the cluster structure present in data. In an extensive simulation study and in empirical applications with benchmark data sets, different combinations of scatter matrices as well as component selection criteria are compared in situations with and without outliers. Overall, the new approach of tandem clustering with ICS shows promising results and clearly outperforms the approach with PCA.

We present a framework for approximate Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained due to computational constraints, which is becoming increasingly common for applications of complex models. We model the log-likelihood function using a Gaussian process (GP) and the main methodological innovation is to apply this model to emulate the progression that an exact Metropolis-Hastings (MH) sampler would take if it was applicable. Informative log-likelihood evaluation locations are selected using a sequential experimental design strategy until the MH accept/reject decision is done accurately enough according to the GP model. The resulting approximate sampler is conceptually simple and sample-efficient. It is also more robust to violations of GP modelling assumptions compared with earlier, related "Bayesian optimisation-like" methods tailored for Bayesian inference. We discuss some theoretical aspects and various interpretations of the resulting approximate MH sampler, and demonstrate its benefits in the context of Bayesian and generalised Bayesian likelihood-free inference for simulator-based statistical models.

Estimating the probability of the binomial distribution is a basic problem, which appears in almost all introductory statistics courses and is performed frequently in various studies. In some cases, the parameter of interest is a difference between two probabilities, and the current work studies the construction of confidence intervals for this parameter when the sample size is small. Our goal is to find the shortest confidence intervals under the constraint of coverage probability being larger than a predetermined level. For the two-sample case, there is no known algorithm that achieves this goal, but different heuristics procedures have been suggested, and the present work aims at finding optimal confidence intervals. In the one-sample case, there is a known algorithm that finds optimal confidence intervals presented by Blyth and Still (1983). It is based on solving small and local optimization problems and then using an inversion step to find the global optimum solution. We show that this approach fails in the two-sample case and therefore, in order to find optimal confidence intervals, one needs to solve a global optimization problem, rather than small and local ones, which is computationally much harder. We present and discuss the suitable global optimization problem. Using the Gurobi package we find near-optimal solutions when the sample sizes are smaller than 15, and we compare these solutions to some existing methods, both approximate and exact. We find that the improvement in terms of lengths with respect to the best competitor varies between 1.5\% and 5\% for different parameters of the problem. Therefore, we recommend the use of the new confidence intervals when both sample sizes are smaller than 15. Tables of the confidence intervals are given in the Excel file in this link.

Learning classification tasks of (2^nx2^n) inputs typically consist of \le n (2x2) max-pooling (MP) operators along the entire feedforward deep architecture. Here we show, using the CIFAR-10 database, that pooling decisions adjacent to the last convolutional layer significantly enhance accuracies. In particular, average accuracies of the advanced-VGG with m layers (A-VGGm) architectures are 0.936, 0.940, 0.954, 0.955, and 0.955 for m=6, 8, 14, 13, and 16, respectively. The results indicate A-VGG8s' accuracy is superior to VGG16s', and that the accuracies of A-VGG13 and A-VGG16 are equal, and comparable to that of Wide-ResNet16. In addition, replacing the three fully connected (FC) layers with one FC layer, A-VGG6 and A-VGG14, or with several linear activation FC layers, yielded similar accuracies. These significantly enhanced accuracies stem from training the most influential input-output routes, in comparison to the inferior routes selected following multiple MP decisions along the deep architecture. In addition, accuracies are sensitive to the order of the non-commutative MP and average pooling operators adjacent to the output layer, varying the number and location of training routes. The results call for the reexamination of previously proposed deep architectures and their accuracies by utilizing the proposed pooling strategy adjacent to the output layer.

This paper examines the distribution of order statistics taken from simple-random-sampling without replacement (SRSWOR) from a finite population with values 1,...,N. This distribution is a shifted version of the beta-binomial distribution, parameterised in a particular way. We derive the distribution and show how it relates to the distribution of order statistics under IID sampling from a uniform distribution over the unit interval. We examine properties of the distribution, including moments and asymptotic results. We also generalise the distribution to sampling without replacement of order statistics from an arbitrary finite population. We examine the properties of the order statistics for inference about an unknown population size (called the German tank problem) and we derive relevant estimation results based on observation of an arbitrary set of order statistics. We also introduce an algorithm that simulates sampling without replacement of order statistics from an arbitrary finite population without having to generate the entire sample.

Graph-centric artificial intelligence (graph AI) has achieved remarkable success in modeling interacting systems prevalent in nature, from dynamical systems in biology to particle physics. The increasing heterogeneity of data calls for graph neural architectures that can combine multiple inductive biases. However, combining data from various sources is challenging because appropriate inductive bias may vary by data modality. Multimodal learning methods fuse multiple data modalities while leveraging cross-modal dependencies to address this challenge. Here, we survey 140 studies in graph-centric AI and realize that diverse data types are increasingly brought together using graphs and fed into sophisticated multimodal models. These models stratify into image-, language-, and knowledge-grounded multimodal learning. We put forward an algorithmic blueprint for multimodal graph learning based on this categorization. The blueprint serves as a way to group state-of-the-art architectures that treat multimodal data by choosing appropriately four different components. This effort can pave the way for standardizing the design of sophisticated multimodal architectures for highly complex real-world problems.