亚洲男人的天堂2018av,欧美草比,久久久久久免费视频精选,国色天香在线看免费,久久久久亚洲av成人片仓井空

Efficient and accurate estimation of multivariate empirical probability distributions is fundamental to the calculation of information-theoretic measures such as mutual information and transfer entropy. Common techniques include variations on histogram estimation which, whilst computationally efficient, are often unable to precisely capture the probability density of samples with high correlation, kurtosis or fine substructure, especially when sample sizes are small. Adaptive partitions, which adjust heuristically to the sample, can reduce the bias imparted from the geometry of the histogram itself, but these have commonly focused on the location, scale and granularity of the partition, the effects of which are limited for highly correlated distributions. In this paper, I reformulate the differential entropy estimator for the special case of an equiprobable histogram, using a k-d tree to partition the sample space into bins of equal probability mass. By doing so, I expose an implicit rotational orientation parameter, which is conjectured to be suboptimally specified in the typical marginal alignment. I propose that the optimal orientation minimises the variance of the bin volumes, and demonstrate that improved entropy estimates can be obtained by rotationally aligning the partition to the sample distribution accordingly. Such optimal partitions are observed to be more accurate than existing techniques in estimating entropies of correlated bivariate Gaussian distributions with known theoretical values, across varying sample sizes (99% CI).

Observational cohort studies are increasingly being used for comparative effectiveness research to assess the safety of therapeutics. Recently, various doubly robust methods have been proposed for average treatment effect estimation by combining the treatment model and the outcome model via different vehicles, such as matching, weighting, and regression. The key advantage of doubly robust estimators is that they require either the treatment model or the outcome model to be correctly specified to obtain a consistent estimator of average treatment effects, and therefore lead to a more accurate and often more precise inference. However, little work has been done to understand how doubly robust estimators differ due to their unique strategies of using the treatment and outcome models and how machine learning techniques can be combined to boost their performance. Here we examine multiple popular doubly robust methods and compare their performance using different treatment and outcome modeling via extensive simulations and a real-world application. We found that incorporating machine learning with doubly robust estimators such as the targeted maximum likelihood estimator gives the best overall performance. Practical guidance on how to apply doubly robust estimators is provided.

Estimating the entropy rate of discrete time series is a challenging problem with important applications in numerous areas including neuroscience, genomics, image processing and natural language processing. A number of approaches have been developed for this task, typically based either on universal data compression algorithms, or on statistical estimators of the underlying process distribution. In this work, we propose a fully-Bayesian approach for entropy estimation. Building on the recently introduced Bayesian Context Trees (BCT) framework for modelling discrete time series as variable-memory Markov chains, we show that it is possible to sample directly from the induced posterior on the entropy rate. This can be used to estimate the entire posterior distribution, providing much richer information than point estimates. We develop theoretical results for the posterior distribution of the entropy rate, including proofs of consistency and asymptotic normality. The practical utility of the method is illustrated on both simulated and real-world data, where it is found to outperform state-of-the-art alternatives.

Optional type annotations allow for enriching dynamic programming languages with static typing features like better Integrated Development Environment (IDE) support, more precise program analysis, and early detection and prevention of type-related runtime errors. Machine learning-based type inference promises interesting results for automating this task. However, the practical usage of such systems depends on their ability to generalize across different domains, as they are often applied outside their training domain. In this work, we investigate Type4Py as a representative of state-of-the-art deep learning-based type inference systems, by conducting extensive cross-domain experiments. Thereby, we address the following problems: class imbalances, out-of-vocabulary words, dataset shifts, and unknown classes. To perform such experiments, we use the datasets ManyTypes4Py and CrossDomainTypes4Py. The latter we introduce in this paper. Our dataset enables the evaluation of type inference systems in different domains of software projects and has over 1,000,000 type annotations mined on the platforms GitHub and Libraries. It consists of data from the two domains web development and scientific calculation. Through our experiments, we detect that the shifts in the dataset and the long-tailed distribution with many rare and unknown data types decrease the performance of the deep learning-based type inference system drastically. In this context, we test unsupervised domain adaptation methods and fine-tuning to overcome these issues. Moreover, we investigate the impact of out-of-vocabulary words.

To derive the auto-covariance function from a sampled and time-limited signal or the cross-covariance function from two such signals, the mean values must be estimated and removed from the signals. If no a priori information about the correct mean values is available and the mean values must be derived from the time series themselves, the estimates will be biased. For the estimation of the variance from independent data the appropriate correction is widely known as Bessel's correction. Similar corrections for the auto-covariance and for the cross-covariance functions are shown here, including individual weighting of the samples. The corrected estimates then can be used to correct also the variance estimate in the case of correlated data. The programs used here are available online at //sigproc.nambis.de/programs.

Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) is a powerful paradigm for inferring a reward function from expert demonstrations. Many IRL algorithms require a known transition model and sometimes even a known expert policy, or they at least require access to a generative model. However, these assumptions are too strong for many real-world applications, where the environment can be accessed only through sequential interaction. We propose a novel IRL algorithm: Active exploration for Inverse Reinforcement Learning (AceIRL), which actively explores an unknown environment and expert policy to quickly learn the expert's reward function and identify a good policy. AceIRL uses previous observations to construct confidence intervals that capture plausible reward functions and find exploration policies that focus on the most informative regions of the environment. AceIRL is the first approach to active IRL with sample-complexity bounds that does not require a generative model of the environment. AceIRL matches the sample complexity of active IRL with a generative model in the worst case. Additionally, we establish a problem-dependent bound that relates the sample complexity of AceIRL to the suboptimality gap of a given IRL problem. We empirically evaluate AceIRL in simulations and find that it significantly outperforms more naive exploration strategies.

Recent rapid developments in reinforcement learning algorithms have been giving us novel possibilities in many fields. However, due to their exploring property, we have to take the risk into consideration when we apply those algorithms to safety-critical problems especially in real environments. In this study, we deal with a safe exploration problem in reinforcement learning under the existence of disturbance. We define the safety during learning as satisfaction of the constraint conditions explicitly defined in terms of the state and propose a safe exploration method that uses partial prior knowledge of a controlled object and disturbance. The proposed method assures the satisfaction of the explicit state constraints with a pre-specified probability even if the controlled object is exposed to a stochastic disturbance following a normal distribution. As theoretical results, we introduce sufficient conditions to construct conservative inputs not containing an exploring aspect used in the proposed method and prove that the safety in the above explained sense is guaranteed with the proposed method. Furthermore, we illustrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method through numerical simulations of an inverted pendulum and a four-bar parallel link robot manipulator.

In survival contexts, substantial literature exists on estimating optimal treatment regimes, where treatments are assigned based on personal characteristics for the purpose of maximizing the survival probability. These methods assume that a set of covariates is sufficient to deconfound the treatment-outcome relationship. Nevertheless, the assumption can be limiting in observational studies or randomized trials in which noncompliance occurs. Thus, we advance a novel approach for estimating the optimal treatment regime when certain confounders are not observable and a binary instrumental variable is available. Specifically, via a binary instrumental variable, we propose two semiparametric estimators for the optimal treatment regime, one of which possesses the desirable property of double robustness, by maximizing Kaplan-Meier-like estimators within a pre-defined class of regimes. Because the Kaplan-Meier-like estimators are jagged, we incorporate kernel smoothing methods to enhance their performance. Under appropriate regularity conditions, the asymptotic properties are rigorously established. Furthermore, the finite sample performance is assessed through simulation studies. We exemplify our method using data from the National Cancer Institute's (NCI) prostate, lung, colorectal, and ovarian cancer screening trial.

Deep learning appearance-based 3D gaze estimation is gaining popularity due to its minimal hardware requirements and being free of constraint. Unreliable and overconfident inferences, however, still limit the adoption of this gaze estimation method. To address the unreliable and overconfident issues, we introduce a confidence-aware model that predicts uncertainties together with gaze angle estimations. We also introduce a novel effectiveness evaluation method based on the causality between eye feature degradation and the rise in inference uncertainty to assess the uncertainty estimation. Our confidence-aware model demonstrates reliable uncertainty estimations while providing angular estimation accuracies on par with the state-of-the-art. Compared with the existing statistical uncertainty-angular-error evaluation metric, the proposed effectiveness evaluation approach can more effectively judge inferred uncertainties' performance at each prediction.

The Bayesian paradigm has the potential to solve core issues of deep neural networks such as poor calibration and data inefficiency. Alas, scaling Bayesian inference to large weight spaces often requires restrictive approximations. In this work, we show that it suffices to perform inference over a small subset of model weights in order to obtain accurate predictive posteriors. The other weights are kept as point estimates. This subnetwork inference framework enables us to use expressive, otherwise intractable, posterior approximations over such subsets. In particular, we implement subnetwork linearized Laplace: We first obtain a MAP estimate of all weights and then infer a full-covariance Gaussian posterior over a subnetwork. We propose a subnetwork selection strategy that aims to maximally preserve the model's predictive uncertainty. Empirically, our approach is effective compared to ensembles and less expressive posterior approximations over full networks.