Traditional statistical estimation, or statistical inference in general, is static, in the sense that the estimate of the quantity of interest does not change the future evolution of the quantity. In some sequential estimation problems however, we encounter the situation where the future values of the quantity to be estimated depend on the estimate of its current value. Examples include stock price prediction by big investors, interactive product recommendation, and behavior prediction in multi-agent systems. We may call such problems as dynamic inference. In this work, a formulation of this problem under a Bayesian probabilistic framework is given, and the optimal estimation strategy is derived as the solution to minimize the overall inference loss. How the optimal estimation strategy works is illustrated through two examples, stock trend prediction and vehicle behavior prediction. When the underlying models for dynamic inference are unknown, we can consider the problem of learning for dynamic inference. This learning problem can potentially unify several familiar machine learning problems, including supervised learning, imitation learning, and reinforcement learning.
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Simulation models, in particular agent-based models, are gaining popularity in economics. The considerable flexibility they offer, as well as their capacity to reproduce a variety of empirically observed behaviours of complex systems, give them broad appeal, and the increasing availability of cheap computing power has made their use feasible. Yet a widespread adoption in real-world modelling and decision-making scenarios has been hindered by the difficulty of performing parameter estimation for such models. In general, simulation models lack a tractable likelihood function, which precludes a straightforward application of standard statistical inference techniques. Several recent works have sought to address this problem through the application of likelihood-free inference techniques, in which parameter estimates are determined by performing some form of comparison between the observed data and simulation output. However, these approaches are (a) founded on restrictive assumptions, and/or (b) typically require many hundreds of thousands of simulations. These qualities make them unsuitable for large-scale simulations in economics and can cast doubt on the validity of these inference methods in such scenarios. In this paper, we investigate the efficacy of two classes of black-box approximate Bayesian inference methods that have recently drawn significant attention within the probabilistic machine learning community: neural posterior estimation and neural density ratio estimation. We present benchmarking experiments in which we demonstrate that neural network based black-box methods provide state of the art parameter inference for economic simulation models, and crucially are compatible with generic multivariate time-series data. In addition, we suggest appropriate assessment criteria for future benchmarking of approximate Bayesian inference procedures for economic simulation models.
Learning is a distinctive feature of intelligent behaviour. High-throughput experimental data and Big Data promise to open new windows on complex systems such as cells, the brain or our societies. Yet, the puzzling success of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning shows that we still have a poor conceptual understanding of learning. These applications push statistical inference into uncharted territories where data is high-dimensional and scarce, and prior information on "true" models is scant if not totally absent. Here we review recent progress on understanding learning, based on the notion of "relevance". The relevance, as we define it here, quantifies the amount of information that a dataset or the internal representation of a learning machine contains on the generative model of the data. This allows us to define maximally informative samples, on one hand, and optimal learning machines on the other. These are ideal limits of samples and of machines, that contain the maximal amount of information about the unknown generative process, at a given resolution (or level of compression). Both ideal limits exhibit critical features in the statistical sense: Maximally informative samples are characterised by a power-law frequency distribution (statistical criticality) and optimal learning machines by an anomalously large susceptibility. The trade-off between resolution (i.e. compression) and relevance distinguishes the regime of noisy representations from that of lossy compression. These are separated by a special point characterised by Zipf's law statistics. This identifies samples obeying Zipf's law as the most compressed loss-less representations that are optimal in the sense of maximal relevance. Criticality in optimal learning machines manifests in an exponential degeneracy of energy levels, that leads to unusual thermodynamic properties.
Variational Bayesian inference is an important machine-learning tool that finds application from statistics to robotics. The goal is to find an approximate probability density function (PDF) from a chosen family that is in some sense 'closest' to the full Bayesian posterior. Closeness is typically defined through the selection of an appropriate loss functional such as the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. In this paper, we explore a new formulation of variational inference by exploiting the fact that (most) PDFs are members of a Bayesian Hilbert space under careful definitions of vector addition, scalar multiplication and an inner product. We show that variational inference based on KL divergence then amounts to an iterative projection, in the Euclidean sense, of the Bayesian posterior onto a subspace corresponding to the selected approximation family. We work through the details of this general framework for the specific case of the Gaussian approximation family and show the equivalence to another Gaussian variational inference approach. We furthermore discuss the implications for systems that exhibit sparsity, which is handled naturally in Bayesian space, and give an example of a high-dimensional robotic state estimation problem that can be handled as a result. Finally, we provide some preliminary examples of how the approach could be applied to non-Gaussian inference.
Active inference is a unifying theory for perception and action resting upon the idea that the brain maintains an internal model of the world by minimizing free energy. From a behavioral perspective, active inference agents can be seen as self-evidencing beings that act to fulfill their optimistic predictions, namely preferred outcomes or goals. In contrast, reinforcement learning requires human-designed rewards to accomplish any desired outcome. Although active inference could provide a more natural self-supervised objective for control, its applicability has been limited because of the shortcomings in scaling the approach to complex environments. In this work, we propose a contrastive objective for active inference that strongly reduces the computational burden in learning the agent's generative model and planning future actions. Our method performs notably better than likelihood-based active inference in image-based tasks, while also being computationally cheaper and easier to train. We compare to reinforcement learning agents that have access to human-designed reward functions, showing that our approach closely matches their performance. Finally, we also show that contrastive methods perform significantly better in the case of distractors in the environment and that our method is able to generalize goals to variations in the background.
Modern neural network architectures can leverage large amounts of data to generalize well within the training distribution. However, they are less capable of systematic generalization to data drawn from unseen but related distributions, a feat that is hypothesized to require compositional reasoning and reuse of knowledge. In this work, we present Neural Interpreters, an architecture that factorizes inference in a self-attention network as a system of modules, which we call \emph{functions}. Inputs to the model are routed through a sequence of functions in a way that is end-to-end learned. The proposed architecture can flexibly compose computation along width and depth, and lends itself well to capacity extension after training. To demonstrate the versatility of Neural Interpreters, we evaluate it in two distinct settings: image classification and visual abstract reasoning on Raven Progressive Matrices. In the former, we show that Neural Interpreters perform on par with the vision transformer using fewer parameters, while being transferrable to a new task in a sample efficient manner. In the latter, we find that Neural Interpreters are competitive with respect to the state-of-the-art in terms of systematic generalization
Influence maximization is the task of selecting a small number of seed nodes in a social network to maximize the spread of the influence from these seeds, and it has been widely investigated in the past two decades. In the canonical setting, the whole social network as well as its diffusion parameters is given as input. In this paper, we consider the more realistic sampling setting where the network is unknown and we only have a set of passively observed cascades that record the set of activated nodes at each diffusion step. We study the task of influence maximization from these cascade samples (IMS), and present constant approximation algorithms for this task under mild conditions on the seed set distribution. To achieve the optimization goal, we also provide a novel solution to the network inference problem, that is, learning diffusion parameters and the network structure from the cascade data. Comparing with prior solutions, our network inference algorithm requires weaker assumptions and does not rely on maximum-likelihood estimation and convex programming. Our IMS algorithms enhance the learning-and-then-optimization approach by allowing a constant approximation ratio even when the diffusion parameters are hard to learn, and we do not need any assumption related to the network structure or diffusion parameters.
We study the link between generalization and interference in temporal-difference (TD) learning. Interference is defined as the inner product of two different gradients, representing their alignment. This quantity emerges as being of interest from a variety of observations about neural networks, parameter sharing and the dynamics of learning. We find that TD easily leads to low-interference, under-generalizing parameters, while the effect seems reversed in supervised learning. We hypothesize that the cause can be traced back to the interplay between the dynamics of interference and bootstrapping. This is supported empirically by several observations: the negative relationship between the generalization gap and interference in TD, the negative effect of bootstrapping on interference and the local coherence of targets, and the contrast between the propagation rate of information in TD(0) versus TD($\lambda$) and regression tasks such as Monte-Carlo policy evaluation. We hope that these new findings can guide the future discovery of better bootstrapping methods.
Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.
Generative models (GMs) such as Generative Adversary Network (GAN) and Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) have thrived these years and achieved high quality results in generating new samples. Especially in Computer Vision, GMs have been used in image inpainting, denoising and completion, which can be treated as the inference from observed pixels to corrupted pixels. However, images are hierarchically structured which are quite different from many real-world inference scenarios with non-hierarchical features. These inference scenarios contain heterogeneous stochastic variables and irregular mutual dependences. Traditionally they are modeled by Bayesian Network (BN). However, the learning and inference of BN model are NP-hard thus the number of stochastic variables in BN is highly constrained. In this paper, we adapt typical GMs to enable heterogeneous learning and inference in polynomial time.We also propose an extended autoregressive (EAR) model and an EAR with adversary loss (EARA) model and give theoretical results on their effectiveness. Experiments on several BN datasets show that our proposed EAR model achieves the best performance in most cases compared to other GMs. Except for black box analysis, we've also done a serial of experiments on Markov border inference of GMs for white box analysis and give theoretical results.
Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.
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