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We develop an inferential toolkit for analyzing object-valued responses, which correspond to data situated in general metric spaces, paired with Euclidean predictors within the conformal framework. To this end we introduce conditional profile average transport costs, where we compare distance profiles that correspond to one-dimensional distributions of probability mass falling into balls of increasing radius through the optimal transport cost when moving from one distance profile to another. The average transport cost to transport a given distance profile to all others is crucial for statistical inference in metric spaces and underpins the proposed conditional profile scores. A key feature of the proposed approach is to utilize the distribution of conditional profile average transport costs as conformity score for general metric space-valued responses, which facilitates the construction of prediction sets by the split conformal algorithm. We derive the uniform convergence rate of the proposed conformity score estimators and establish asymptotic conditional validity for the prediction sets. The finite sample performance for synthetic data in various metric spaces demonstrates that the proposed conditional profile score outperforms existing methods in terms of both coverage level and size of the resulting prediction sets, even in the special case of scalar and thus Euclidean responses. We also demonstrate the practical utility of conditional profile scores for network data from New York taxi trips and for compositional data reflecting energy sourcing of U.S. states.

Linear structural vector autoregressive models can be identified statistically without imposing restrictions on the model if the shocks are mutually independent and at most one of them is Gaussian. We show that this result extends to structural threshold and smooth transition vector autoregressive models incorporating a time-varying impact matrix defined as a weighted sum of the impact matrices of the regimes. Our empirical application studies the effects of the climate policy uncertainty shock on the U.S. macroeconomy. In a structural logistic smooth transition vector autoregressive model consisting of two regimes, we find that a positive climate policy uncertainty shock decreases production in times of low economic policy uncertainty but slightly increases it in times of high economic policy uncertainty. The introduced methods are implemented to the accompanying R package sstvars.

Recent work has demonstrated that the latent spaces of large language models (LLMs) contain directions predictive of the truth of sentences. Multiple methods recover such directions and build probes that are described as getting at a model's "knowledge" or "beliefs". We investigate this phenomenon, looking closely at the impact of context on the probes. Our experiments establish where in the LLM the probe's predictions can be described as being conditional on the preceding (related) sentences. Specifically, we quantify the responsiveness of the probes to the presence of (negated) supporting and contradicting sentences, and score the probes on their consistency. We also perform a causal intervention experiment, investigating whether moving the representation of a premise along these belief directions influences the position of the hypothesis along that same direction. We find that the probes we test are generally context sensitive, but that contexts which should not affect the truth often still impact the probe outputs. Our experiments show that the type of errors depend on the layer, the (type of) model, and the kind of data. Finally, our results suggest that belief directions are (one of the) causal mediators in the inference process that incorporates in-context information.

Modern regression applications can involve hundreds or thousands of variables which motivates the use of variable selection methods. Bayesian variable selection defines a posterior distribution on the possible subsets of the variables (which are usually termed models) to express uncertainty about which variables are strongly linked to the response. This can be used to provide Bayesian model averaged predictions or inference, and to understand the relative importance of different variables. However, there has been little work on meaningful representations of this uncertainty beyond first order summaries. We introduce Cartesian credible sets to address this gap. The elements of these sets are formed by concatenating sub-models defined on each block of a partition of the variables. Investigating these sub-models allow us to understand whether the models in the Cartesian credible set always/never/sometimes include a particular variable or group of variables and provide a useful summary of model uncertainty. We introduce methods to find these sets that emphasize ease of understanding. The potential of the method is illustrated on regression problems with both small and large numbers of variables.

Domain decomposition provides an effective way to tackle the dilemma of physics-informed neural networks (PINN) which struggle to accurately and efficiently solve partial differential equations (PDEs) in the whole domain, but the lack of efficient tools for dealing with the interfaces between two adjacent sub-domains heavily hinders the training effects, even leads to the discontinuity of the learned solutions. In this paper, we propose a symmetry group based domain decomposition strategy to enhance the PINN for solving the forward and inverse problems of the PDEs possessing a Lie symmetry group. Specifically, for the forward problem, we first deploy the symmetry group to generate the dividing-lines having known solution information which can be adjusted flexibly and are used to divide the whole training domain into a finite number of non-overlapping sub-domains, then utilize the PINN and the symmetry-enhanced PINN methods to learn the solutions in each sub-domain and finally stitch them to the overall solution of PDEs. For the inverse problem, we first utilize the symmetry group acting on the data of the initial and boundary conditions to generate labeled data in the interior domain of PDEs and then find the undetermined parameters as well as the solution by only training the neural networks in a sub-domain. Consequently, the proposed method can predict high-accuracy solutions of PDEs which are failed by the vanilla PINN in the whole domain and the extended physics-informed neural network in the same sub-domains. Numerical results of the Korteweg-de Vries equation with a translation symmetry and the nonlinear viscous fluid equation with a scaling symmetry show that the accuracies of the learned solutions are improved largely.

We analyze a bilinear optimal control problem for the Stokes--Brinkman equations: the control variable enters the state equations as a coefficient. In two- and three-dimensional Lipschitz domains, we perform a complete continuous analysis that includes the existence of solutions and first- and second-order optimality conditions. We also develop two finite element methods that differ fundamentally in whether the admissible control set is discretized or not. For each of the proposed methods, we perform a convergence analysis and derive a priori error estimates; the latter under the assumption that the domain is convex. Finally, assuming that the domain is Lipschitz, we develop an a posteriori error estimator for each discretization scheme and obtain a global reliability bound.

We study the data-driven selection of causal graphical models using constraint-based algorithms, which determine the existence or non-existence of edges (causal connections) in a graph based on testing a series of conditional independence hypotheses. In settings where the ultimate scientific goal is to use the selected graph to inform estimation of some causal effect of interest (e.g., by selecting a valid and sufficient set of adjustment variables), we argue that a "cautious" approach to graph selection should control the probability of falsely removing edges and prefer dense, rather than sparse, graphs. We propose a simple inversion of the usual conditional independence testing procedure: to remove an edge, test the null hypothesis of conditional association greater than some user-specified threshold, rather than the null of independence. This equivalence testing formulation to testing independence constraints leads to a procedure with desriable statistical properties and behaviors that better match the inferential goals of certain scientific studies, for example observational epidemiological studies that aim to estimate causal effects in the face of causal model uncertainty. We illustrate our approach on a data example from environmental epidemiology.

The consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator for mixtures of elliptically-symmetric distributions for estimating its population version is shown, where the underlying distribution $P$ is nonparametric and does not necessarily belong to the class of mixtures on which the estimator is based. In a situation where $P$ is a mixture of well enough separated but nonparametric distributions it is shown that the components of the population version of the estimator correspond to the well separated components of $P$. This provides some theoretical justification for the use of such estimators for cluster analysis in case that $P$ has well separated subpopulations even if these subpopulations differ from what the mixture model assumes.

We consider covariance parameter estimation for Gaussian processes with functional inputs. From an increasing-domain asymptotics perspective, we prove the asymptotic consistency and normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. We extend these theoretical guarantees to encompass scenarios accounting for approximation errors in the inputs, which allows robustness of practical implementations relying on conventional sampling methods or projections onto a functional basis. Loosely speaking, both consistency and normality hold when the approximation error becomes negligible, a condition that is often achieved as the number of samples or basis functions becomes large. These later asymptotic properties are illustrated through analytical examples, including one that covers the case of non-randomly perturbed grids, as well as several numerical illustrations.

With the advent of massive data sets much of the computational science and engineering community has moved toward data-intensive approaches in regression and classification. However, these present significant challenges due to increasing size, complexity and dimensionality of the problems. In particular, covariance matrices in many cases are numerically unstable and linear algebra shows that often such matrices cannot be inverted accurately on a finite precision computer. A common ad hoc approach to stabilizing a matrix is application of a so-called nugget. However, this can change the model and introduce error to the original solution. It is well known from numerical analysis that ill-conditioned matrices cannot be accurately inverted. In this paper we develop a multilevel computational method that scales well with the number of observations and dimensions. A multilevel basis is constructed adapted to a kD-tree partitioning of the observations. Numerically unstable covariance matrices with large condition numbers can be transformed into well conditioned multilevel ones without compromising accuracy. Moreover, it is shown that the multilevel prediction exactly solves the Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (BLUP) and Generalized Least Squares (GLS) model, but is numerically stable. The multilevel method is tested on numerically unstable problems of up to 25 dimensions. Numerical results show speedups of up to 42,050 times for solving the BLUP problem, but with the same accuracy as the traditional iterative approach. For very ill-conditioned cases the speedup is infinite. In addition, decay estimates of the multilevel covariance matrices are derived based on high dimensional interpolation techniques from the field of numerical analysis. This work lies at the intersection of statistics, uncertainty quantification, high performance computing and computational applied mathematics.