We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to provide exact conditional coverage universally in finite samples. Thus, most popular methods only provide marginal coverage over the covariates. This paper bridges this gap by defining a spectrum of problems that interpolate between marginal and conditional validity. We motivate these problems by reformulating conditional coverage as coverage over a class of covariate shifts. When the target class of shifts is finite dimensional, we show how to simultaneously obtain exact finite sample coverage over all possible shifts. For example, given a collection of protected subgroups, our algorithm outputs intervals with exact coverage over each group. For more flexible, infinite dimensional classes where exact coverage is impossible, we provide a simple procedure for quantifying the gap between the coverage of our algorithm and the target level. Moreover, by tuning a single hyperparameter, we allow the practitioner to control the size of this gap across shifts of interest. Our methods can be easily incorporated into existing split conformal inference pipelines, and thus can be used to quantify the uncertainty of modern black-box algorithms without distributional assumptions.
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We show how a neural network can be trained on individual intrusive listening test scores to predict a distribution of scores for each pair of reference and coded input stereo or binaural signals. We nickname this method the Generative Machine Listener (GML), as it is capable of generating an arbitrary amount of simulated listening test data. Compared to a baseline system using regression over mean scores, we observe lower outlier ratios (OR) for the mean score predictions, and obtain easy access to the prediction of confidence intervals (CI). The introduction of data augmentation techniques from the image domain results in a significant increase in CI prediction accuracy as well as Pearson and Spearman rank correlation of mean scores.
Imitation learning methods are used to infer a policy in a Markov decision process from a dataset of expert demonstrations by minimizing a divergence measure between the empirical state occupancy measures of the expert and the policy. The guiding signal to the policy is provided by the discriminator used as part of an versarial optimization procedure. We observe that this model is prone to absorbing spurious correlations present in the expert data. To alleviate this issue, we propose to use causal invariance as a regularization principle for adversarial training of these models. The regularization objective is applicable in a straightforward manner to existing adversarial imitation frameworks. We demonstrate the efficacy of the regularized formulation in an illustrative two-dimensional setting as well as a number of high-dimensional robot locomotion benchmark tasks.
We propose a general stochastic framework for modelling repeated auctions in the Real Time Bidding (RTB) ecosystem using point processes. The flexibility of the framework allows a variety of auction scenarios including configuration of information provided to player, determination of auction winner and quantification of utility gained from each auctions. We propose theoretical results on how this formulation of process can be approximated to a Poisson point process, which enables the analyzer to take advantage of well-established properties. Under this framework, we specify the player's optimal strategy under various scenarios. We also emphasize that it is critical to consider the joint distribution of utility and market condition instead of estimating the marginal distributions independently.
Sequential VAEs have been successfully considered for many high-dimensional time series modelling problems, with many variant models relying on discrete-time mechanisms such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs). On the other hand, continuous-time methods have recently gained attraction, especially in the context of irregularly-sampled time series, where they can better handle the data than discrete-time methods. One such class are Gaussian process variational autoencoders (GPVAEs), where the VAE prior is set as a Gaussian process (GP). However, a major limitation of GPVAEs is that it inherits the cubic computational cost as GPs, making it unattractive to practioners. In this work, we leverage the equivalent discrete state space representation of Markovian GPs to enable linear time GPVAE training via Kalman filtering and smoothing. For our model, Markovian GPVAE (MGPVAE), we show on a variety of high-dimensional temporal and spatiotemporal tasks that our method performs favourably compared to existing approaches whilst being computationally highly scalable.
Due to the significant process variations, designers have to optimize the statistical performance distribution of nano-scale IC design in most cases. This problem has been investigated for decades under the formulation of stochastic optimization, which minimizes the expected value of a performance metric while assuming that the distribution of process variation is exactly given. This paper rethinks the variation-aware circuit design optimization from a new perspective. First, we discuss the variation shift problem, which means that the actual density function of process variations almost always differs from the given model and is often unknown. Consequently, we propose to formulate the variation-aware circuit design optimization as a distributionally robust optimization problem, which does not require the exact distribution of process variations. By selecting an appropriate uncertainty set for the probability density function of process variations, we solve the shift-aware circuit optimization problem using distributionally robust Bayesian optimization. This method is validated with both a photonic IC and an electronics IC. Our optimized circuits show excellent robustness against variation shifts: the optimized circuit has excellent performance under many possible distributions of process variations that differ from the given statistical model. This work has the potential to enable a new research direction and inspire subsequent research at different levels of the EDA flow under the setting of variation shift.
The shortest path problem in graphs is fundamental to AI. Nearly all variants of the problem and relevant algorithms that solve them ignore edge-weight computation time and its common relation to weight uncertainty. This implies that taking these factors into consideration can potentially lead to a performance boost in relevant applications. Recently, a generalized framework for weighted directed graphs was suggested, where edge-weight can be computed (estimated) multiple times, at increasing accuracy and run-time expense. We build on this framework to introduce the problem of finding the tightest admissible shortest path (TASP); a path with the tightest suboptimality bound on the optimal cost. This is a generalization of the shortest path problem to bounded uncertainty, where edge-weight uncertainty can be traded for computational cost. We present a complete algorithm for solving TASP, with guarantees on solution quality. Empirical evaluation supports the effectiveness of this approach.
The aim of this work is to develop a fully-distributed algorithmic framework for training graph convolutional networks (GCNs). The proposed method is able to exploit the meaningful relational structure of the input data, which are collected by a set of agents that communicate over a sparse network topology. After formulating the centralized GCN training problem, we first show how to make inference in a distributed scenario where the underlying data graph is split among different agents. Then, we propose a distributed gradient descent procedure to solve the GCN training problem. The resulting model distributes computation along three lines: during inference, during back-propagation, and during optimization. Convergence to stationary solutions of the GCN training problem is also established under mild conditions. Finally, we propose an optimization criterion to design the communication topology between agents in order to match with the graph describing data relationships. A wide set of numerical results validate our proposal. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work combining graph convolutional neural networks with distributed optimization.
Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.
We investigate a lattice-structured LSTM model for Chinese NER, which encodes a sequence of input characters as well as all potential words that match a lexicon. Compared with character-based methods, our model explicitly leverages word and word sequence information. Compared with word-based methods, lattice LSTM does not suffer from segmentation errors. Gated recurrent cells allow our model to choose the most relevant characters and words from a sentence for better NER results. Experiments on various datasets show that lattice LSTM outperforms both word-based and character-based LSTM baselines, achieving the best results.
Link prediction for knowledge graphs is the task of predicting missing relationships between entities. Previous work on link prediction has focused on shallow, fast models which can scale to large knowledge graphs. However, these models learn less expressive features than deep, multi-layer models -- which potentially limits performance. In this work, we introduce ConvE, a multi-layer convolutional network model for link prediction, and report state-of-the-art results for several established datasets. We also show that the model is highly parameter efficient, yielding the same performance as DistMult and R-GCN with 8x and 17x fewer parameters. Analysis of our model suggests that it is particularly effective at modelling nodes with high indegree -- which are common in highly-connected, complex knowledge graphs such as Freebase and YAGO3. In addition, it has been noted that the WN18 and FB15k datasets suffer from test set leakage, due to inverse relations from the training set being present in the test set -- however, the extent of this issue has so far not been quantified. We find this problem to be severe: a simple rule-based model can achieve state-of-the-art results on both WN18 and FB15k. To ensure that models are evaluated on datasets where simply exploiting inverse relations cannot yield competitive results, we investigate and validate several commonly used datasets -- deriving robust variants where necessary. We then perform experiments on these robust datasets for our own and several previously proposed models, and find that ConvE achieves state-of-the-art Mean Reciprocal Rank across all datasets.
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