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This paper studies the problem of statistical inference for genetic relatedness between binary traits based on individual-level genome-wide association data. Specifically, under the high-dimensional logistic regression model, we define parameters characterizing the cross-trait genetic correlation, the genetic covariance and the trait-specific genetic variance. A novel weighted debiasing method is developed for the logistic Lasso estimator and computationally efficient debiased estimators are proposed. The rates of convergence for these estimators are studied and their asymptotic normality is established under mild conditions. Moreover, we construct confidence intervals and statistical tests for these parameters, and provide theoretical justifications for the methods, including the coverage probability and expected length of the confidence intervals, as well as the size and power of the proposed tests. Numerical studies are conducted under both model generated data and simulated genetic data to show the superiority of the proposed methods and their applicability to the analysis of real genetic data. Finally, by analyzing a real data set on autoimmune diseases, we demonstrate the ability to obtain novel insights about the shared genetic architecture between ten pediatric autoimmune diseases.

The increasing size of data generated by smartphones and IoT devices motivated the development of Federated Learning (FL), a framework for on-device collaborative training of machine learning models. First efforts in FL focused on learning a single global model with good average performance across clients, but the global model may be arbitrarily bad for a given client, due to the inherent heterogeneity of local data distributions. Federated multi-task learning (MTL) approaches can learn personalized models by formulating an opportune penalized optimization problem. The penalization term can capture complex relations among personalized models, but eschews clear statistical assumptions about local data distributions. In this work, we propose to study federated MTL under the flexible assumption that each local data distribution is a mixture of unknown underlying distributions. This assumption encompasses most of the existing personalized FL approaches and leads to federated EM-like algorithms for both client-server and fully decentralized settings. Moreover, it provides a principled way to serve personalized models to clients not seen at training time. The algorithms' convergence is analyzed through a novel federated surrogate optimization framework, which can be of general interest. Experimental results on FL benchmarks show that our approach provides models with higher accuracy and fairness than state-of-the-art methods.

We study the problem of learning causal models from observational data through the lens of interpolation and its counterpart -- regularization. A large volume of recent theoretical, as well as empirical work, suggests that, in highly complex model classes, interpolating estimators can have good statistical generalization properties and can even be optimal for statistical learning. Motivated by an analogy between statistical and causal learning recently highlighted by Janzing (2019), we investigate whether interpolating estimators can also learn good causal models. To this end, we consider a simple linearly confounded model and derive precise asymptotics for the *causal risk* of the min-norm interpolator and ridge-regularized regressors in the high-dimensional regime. Under the principle of independent causal mechanisms, a standard assumption in causal learning, we find that interpolators cannot be optimal and causal learning requires stronger regularization than statistical learning. This resolves a recent conjecture in Janzing (2019). Beyond this assumption, we find a larger range of behavior that can be precisely characterized with a new measure of *confounding strength*. If the confounding strength is negative, causal learning requires weaker regularization than statistical learning, interpolators can be optimal, and the optimal regularization can even be negative. If the confounding strength is large, the optimal regularization is infinite, and learning from observational data is actively harmful.

Ensemble methods based on subsampling, such as random forests, are popular in applications due to their high predictive accuracy. Existing literature views a random forest prediction as an infinite-order incomplete U-statistic to quantify its uncertainty. However, these methods focus on a small subsampling size of each tree, which is theoretically valid but practically limited. This paper develops an unbiased variance estimator based on incomplete U-statistics, which allows the tree size to be comparable with the overall sample size, making statistical inference possible in a broader range of real applications. Simulation results demonstrate that our estimators enjoy lower bias and more accurate confidence interval coverage without additional computational costs. We also propose a local smoothing procedure to reduce the variation of our estimator, which shows improved numerical performance when the number of trees is relatively small. Further, we investigate the ratio consistency of our proposed variance estimator under specific scenarios. In particular, we develop a new "double U-statistic" formulation to analyze the Hoeffding decomposition of the estimator's variance.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) represent a class of powerful generative models. Despite their success, the inference of DPMs is expensive since it generally needs to iterate over thousands of timesteps. A key problem in the inference is to estimate the variance in each timestep of the reverse process. In this work, we present a surprising result that both the optimal reverse variance and the corresponding optimal KL divergence of a DPM have analytic forms w.r.t. its score function. Building upon it, we propose Analytic-DPM, a training-free inference framework that estimates the analytic forms of the variance and KL divergence using the Monte Carlo method and a pretrained score-based model. Further, to correct the potential bias caused by the score-based model, we derive both lower and upper bounds of the optimal variance and clip the estimate for a better result. Empirically, our analytic-DPM improves the log-likelihood of various DPMs, produces high-quality samples, and meanwhile enjoys a 20x to 80x speed up.

We address the relatively unexplored problem of hyper-parameter optimization (HPO) for federated learning (FL-HPO). We introduce Federated Loss SuRface Aggregation (FLoRA), a general FL-HPO solution framework that can address use cases of tabular data and any Machine Learning (ML) model including gradient boosting training algorithms and therefore further expands the scope of FL-HPO. FLoRA enables single-shot FL-HPO: identifying a single set of good hyper-parameters that are subsequently used in a single FL training. Thus, it enables FL-HPO solutions with minimal additional communication overhead compared to FL training without HPO. We theoretically characterize the optimality gap of FL-HPO, which explicitly accounts for the heterogeneous non-IID nature of the parties' local data distributions, a dominant characteristic of FL systems. Our empirical evaluation of FLoRA for multiple ML algorithms on seven OpenML datasets demonstrates significant model accuracy improvements over the considered baseline, and robustness to increasing number of parties involved in FL-HPO training.

The construction of generalizable and transferable models is a fundamental goal of statistical learning. Learning with the multi-source data helps improve model generalizability and is integral to many important statistical problems, including group distributionally robust optimization, minimax group fairness, and maximin projection. This paper considers multiple high-dimensional regression models for the multi-source data. We introduce the covariate shift maximin effect as a group distributionally robust model. This robust model helps transfer the information from the multi-source data to the unlabelled target population. Statistical inference for the covariate shift maximin effect is challenging since its point estimator may have a non-standard limiting distribution. We devise a novel {\it DenseNet} sampling method to construct valid confidence intervals for the high-dimensional maximin effect. We show that our proposed confidence interval achieves the desired coverage level and attains a parametric length. Our proposed DenseNet sampling method and the related theoretical analysis are of independent interest in addressing other non-regular or non-standard inference problems. We demonstrate the proposed method over a large-scale simulation and genetic data on yeast colony growth under multiple environments.

When and why can a neural network be successfully trained? This article provides an overview of optimization algorithms and theory for training neural networks. First, we discuss the issue of gradient explosion/vanishing and the more general issue of undesirable spectrum, and then discuss practical solutions including careful initialization and normalization methods. Second, we review generic optimization methods used in training neural networks, such as SGD, adaptive gradient methods and distributed methods, and theoretical results for these algorithms. Third, we review existing research on the global issues of neural network training, including results on bad local minima, mode connectivity, lottery ticket hypothesis and infinite-width analysis.

Federated learning has been showing as a promising approach in paving the last mile of artificial intelligence, due to its great potential of solving the data isolation problem in large scale machine learning. Particularly, with consideration of the heterogeneity in practical edge computing systems, asynchronous edge-cloud collaboration based federated learning can further improve the learning efficiency by significantly reducing the straggler effect. Despite no raw data sharing, the open architecture and extensive collaborations of asynchronous federated learning (AFL) still give some malicious participants great opportunities to infer other parties' training data, thus leading to serious concerns of privacy. To achieve a rigorous privacy guarantee with high utility, we investigate to secure asynchronous edge-cloud collaborative federated learning with differential privacy, focusing on the impacts of differential privacy on model convergence of AFL. Formally, we give the first analysis on the model convergence of AFL under DP and propose a multi-stage adjustable private algorithm (MAPA) to improve the trade-off between model utility and privacy by dynamically adjusting both the noise scale and the learning rate. Through extensive simulations and real-world experiments with an edge-could testbed, we demonstrate that MAPA significantly improves both the model accuracy and convergence speed with sufficient privacy guarantee.

Federated learning (FL) is a machine learning setting where many clients (e.g. mobile devices or whole organizations) collaboratively train a model under the orchestration of a central server (e.g. service provider), while keeping the training data decentralized. FL embodies the principles of focused data collection and minimization, and can mitigate many of the systemic privacy risks and costs resulting from traditional, centralized machine learning and data science approaches. Motivated by the explosive growth in FL research, this paper discusses recent advances and presents an extensive collection of open problems and challenges.