Participation incentives a well-known issue inhibiting randomized clinical trials (RCTs). We frame this issue as a non-standard exploration-exploitation tradeoff: an RCT would like to explore as uniformly as possible, whereas each patient prefers "exploitation", i.e., treatments that seem best. We incentivize participation by leveraging information asymmetry between the trial and the patients. We measure statistical performance via worst-case estimation error under adversarially generated outcomes, a standard objective for RCTs. We obtain a near-optimal solution in terms of this objective: an incentive-compatible mechanism with a particular guarantee, and a nearly matching impossibility result for any incentive-compatible mechanism. We consider three model variants: homogeneous patients (of the same "type" comprising preferences and medical histories), heterogeneous agents, and an extension with estimated type frequencies.
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Current approaches in paraphrase generation and detection heavily rely on a single general similarity score, ignoring the intricate linguistic properties of language. This paper introduces two new tasks to address this shortcoming by considering paraphrase types - specific linguistic perturbations at particular text positions. We name these tasks Paraphrase Type Generation and Paraphrase Type Detection. Our results suggest that while current techniques perform well in a binary classification scenario, i.e., paraphrased or not, the inclusion of fine-grained paraphrase types poses a significant challenge. While most approaches are good at generating and detecting general semantic similar content, they fail to understand the intrinsic linguistic variables they manipulate. Models trained in generating and identifying paraphrase types also show improvements in tasks without them. In addition, scaling these models further improves their ability to understand paraphrase types. We believe paraphrase types can unlock a new paradigm for developing paraphrase models and solving tasks in the future.
An inference procedure is proposed to provide consistent estimators of parameters in a modal regression model with a covariate prone to measurement error. A score-based diagnostic tool exploiting parametric bootstrap is developed to assess adequacy of parametric assumptions imposed on the regression model. The proposed estimation method and diagnostic tool are applied to synthetic data generated from simulation experiments and data from real-world applications to demonstrate their implementation and performance. These empirical examples illustrate the importance of adequately accounting for measurement error in the error-prone covariate when inferring the association between a response and covariates based on a modal regression model that is especially suitable for skewed and heavy-tailed response data.
In clinical dictation, utterances after automatic speech recognition (ASR) without explicit punctuation marks may lead to the misunderstanding of dictated reports. To give a precise and understandable clinical report with ASR, automatic punctuation restoration is required. Considering a practical scenario, we propose a fast and light pre-trained model for Chinese medical punctuation restoration based on 'pretraining and fine-tuning' paradigm. In this work, we distill pre-trained models by incorporating supervised contrastive learning and a novel auxiliary pre-training task (Punctuation Mark Prediction) to make it well-suited for punctuation restoration. Our experiments on various distilled models reveal that our model can achieve 95% performance while 10% model size relative to state-of-the-art Chinese RoBERTa.
Uncovering latent values and opinions in large language models (LLMs) can help identify biases and mitigate potential harm. Recently, this has been approached by presenting LLMs with survey questions and quantifying their stances towards morally and politically charged statements. However, the stances generated by LLMs can vary greatly depending on how they are prompted, and there are many ways to argue for or against a given position. In this work, we propose to address this by analysing a large and robust dataset of 156k LLM responses to the 62 propositions of the Political Compass Test (PCT) generated by 6 LLMs using 420 prompt variations. We perform coarse-grained analysis of their generated stances and fine-grained analysis of the plain text justifications for those stances. For fine-grained analysis, we propose to identify tropes in the responses: semantically similar phrases that are recurrent and consistent across different prompts, revealing patterns in the text that a given LLM is prone to produce. We find that demographic features added to prompts significantly affect outcomes on the PCT, reflecting bias, as well as disparities between the results of tests when eliciting closed-form vs. open domain responses. Additionally, patterns in the plain text rationales via tropes show that similar justifications are repeatedly generated across models and prompts even with disparate stances.
We prove impossibility results for adaptivity in non-smooth stochastic convex optimization. Given a set of problem parameters we wish to adapt to, we define a "price of adaptivity" (PoA) that, roughly speaking, measures the multiplicative increase in suboptimality due to uncertainty in these parameters. When the initial distance to the optimum is unknown but a gradient norm bound is known, we show that the PoA is at least logarithmic for expected suboptimality, and double-logarithmic for median suboptimality. When there is uncertainty in both distance and gradient norm, we show that the PoA must be polynomial in the level of uncertainty. Our lower bounds nearly match existing upper bounds, and establish that there is no parameter-free lunch. En route, we also establish tight upper and lower bounds for (known-parameter) high-probability stochastic convex optimization with heavy-tailed and bounded noise, respectively.
Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction (CP). Achieving conditional validity ensures accurate uncertainty quantification for data subpopulations, while proper length efficiency ensures that the prediction sets remain informative and non-trivial. Despite significant efforts to address each of these issues individually, a principled framework that reconciles these two objectives has been missing in the CP literature. In this paper, we develop Conformal Prediction with Length-Optimization (CPL) - a novel framework that constructs prediction sets with (near-) optimal length while ensuring conditional validity under various classes of covariate shifts, including the key cases of marginal and group-conditional coverage. In the infinite sample regime, we provide strong duality results which indicate that CPL achieves conditional validity and length optimality. In the finite sample regime, we show that CPL constructs conditionally valid prediction sets. Our extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate the superior prediction set size performance of CPL compared to state-of-the-art methods across diverse real-world and synthetic datasets in classification, regression, and text-related settings.
This paper studies inference for the local average treatment effect in randomized controlled trials with imperfect compliance where treatment status is determined according to "matched pairs." By "matched pairs," we mean that units are sampled i.i.d. from the population of interest, paired according to observed, baseline covariates and finally, within each pair, one unit is selected at random for treatment. Under weak assumptions governing the quality of the pairings, we first derive the limit distribution of the usual Wald (i.e., two-stage least squares) estimator of the local average treatment effect. We show further that conventional heteroskedasticity-robust estimators of the Wald estimator's limiting variance are generally conservative, in that their probability limits are (typically strictly) larger than the limiting variance. We therefore provide an alternative estimator of the limiting variance that is consistent. Finally, we consider the use of additional observed, baseline covariates not used in pairing units to increase the precision with which we can estimate the local average treatment effect. To this end, we derive the limiting behavior of a two-stage least squares estimator of the local average treatment effect which includes both the additional covariates in addition to pair fixed effects, and show that its limiting variance is always less than or equal to that of the Wald estimator. To complete our analysis, we provide a consistent estimator of this limiting variance. A simulation study confirms the practical relevance of our theoretical results. Finally, we apply our results to revisit a prominent experiment studying the effect of macroinsurance on microenterprise in Egypt.
Randomized subspace approximation with "matrix sketching" is an effective approach for constructing approximate partial singular value decompositions (SVDs) of large matrices. The performance of such techniques has been extensively analyzed, and very precise estimates on the distribution of the residual errors have been derived. However, our understanding of the accuracy of the computed singular vectors (measured in terms of the canonical angles between the spaces spanned by the exact and the computed singular vectors, respectively) remains relatively limited. In this work, we present practical bounds and estimates for canonical angles of randomized subspace approximation that can be computed efficiently either a priori or a posteriori, without assuming prior knowledge of the true singular subspaces. Under moderate oversampling in the randomized SVD, our prior probabilistic bounds are asymptotically tight and can be computed efficiently, while bringing a clear insight into the balance between oversampling and power iterations given a fixed budget on the number of matrix-vector multiplications. The numerical experiments demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of these canonical angle bounds and estimates on different matrices under various algorithmic choices for the randomized SVD.
This manuscript portrays optimization as a process. In many practical applications the environment is so complex that it is infeasible to lay out a comprehensive theoretical model and use classical algorithmic theory and mathematical optimization. It is necessary as well as beneficial to take a robust approach, by applying an optimization method that learns as one goes along, learning from experience as more aspects of the problem are observed. This view of optimization as a process has become prominent in varied fields and has led to some spectacular success in modeling and systems that are now part of our daily lives.
The recent proliferation of knowledge graphs (KGs) coupled with incomplete or partial information, in the form of missing relations (links) between entities, has fueled a lot of research on knowledge base completion (also known as relation prediction). Several recent works suggest that convolutional neural network (CNN) based models generate richer and more expressive feature embeddings and hence also perform well on relation prediction. However, we observe that these KG embeddings treat triples independently and thus fail to cover the complex and hidden information that is inherently implicit in the local neighborhood surrounding a triple. To this effect, our paper proposes a novel attention based feature embedding that captures both entity and relation features in any given entity's neighborhood. Additionally, we also encapsulate relation clusters and multihop relations in our model. Our empirical study offers insights into the efficacy of our attention based model and we show marked performance gains in comparison to state of the art methods on all datasets.
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