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Compositional Natural Language Inference has been explored to assess the true abilities of neural models to perform NLI. Yet, current evaluations assume models to have full access to all primitive inferences in advance, in contrast to humans that continuously acquire inference knowledge. In this paper, we introduce the Continual Compositional Generalization in Inference (C2Gen NLI) challenge, where a model continuously acquires knowledge of constituting primitive inference tasks as a basis for compositional inferences. We explore how continual learning affects compositional generalization in NLI, by designing a continual learning setup for compositional NLI inference tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that models fail to compositionally generalize in a continual scenario. To address this problem, we first benchmark various continual learning algorithms and verify their efficacy. We then further analyze C2Gen, focusing on how to order primitives and compositional inference types and examining correlations between subtasks. Our analyses show that by learning subtasks continuously while observing their dependencies and increasing degrees of difficulty, continual learning can enhance composition generalization ability.

The existing research on spectral algorithms, applied within a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS), has primarily focused on general kernel functions, often neglecting the inherent structure of the input feature space. Our paper introduces a new perspective, asserting that input data are situated within a low-dimensional manifold embedded in a higher-dimensional Euclidean space. We study the convergence performance of spectral algorithms in the RKHSs, specifically those generated by the heat kernels, known as diffusion spaces. Incorporating the manifold structure of the input, we employ integral operator techniques to derive tight convergence upper bounds concerning generalized norms, which indicates that the estimators converge to the target function in strong sense, entailing the simultaneous convergence of the function itself and its derivatives. These bounds offer two significant advantages: firstly, they are exclusively contingent on the intrinsic dimension of the input manifolds, thereby providing a more focused analysis. Secondly, they enable the efficient derivation of convergence rates for derivatives of any k-th order, all of which can be accomplished within the ambit of the same spectral algorithms. Furthermore, we establish minimax lower bounds to demonstrate the asymptotic optimality of these conclusions in specific contexts. Our study confirms that the spectral algorithms are practically significant in the broader context of high-dimensional approximation.

Understanding causal mechanisms is essential for explaining and generalizing empirical phenomena. Causal mediation analysis offers statistical techniques to quantify mediation effects. However, existing methods typically require strong identification assumptions or sophisticated research designs. We develop a new identification strategy that simplifies these assumptions, enabling the simultaneous estimation of causal and mediation effects. The strategy is based on a novel decomposition of total treatment effects, which transforms the challenging mediation problem into a simple linear regression problem. The new method establishes a new link between causal mediation and causal moderation. We discuss several research designs and estimators to increase the usability of our identification strategy for a variety of empirical studies. We demonstrate the application of our method by estimating the causal mediation effect in experiments concerning common pool resource governance and voting information. Additionally, we have created statistical software to facilitate the implementation of our method.

This study presents an innovative approach for predicting cryptocurrency time series, specifically focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. The methodology integrates the use of technical indicators, a Performer neural network, and BiLSTM (Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory) to capture temporal dynamics and extract significant features from raw cryptocurrency data. The application of technical indicators, such facilitates the extraction of intricate patterns, momentum, volatility, and trends. The Performer neural network, employing Fast Attention Via positive Orthogonal Random features (FAVOR+), has demonstrated superior computational efficiency and scalability compared to the traditional Multi-head attention mechanism in Transformer models. Additionally, the integration of BiLSTM in the feedforward network enhances the model's capacity to capture temporal dynamics in the data, processing it in both forward and backward directions. This is particularly advantageous for time series data where past and future data points can influence the current state. The proposed method has been applied to the hourly and daily timeframes of the major cryptocurrencies and its performance has been benchmarked against other methods documented in the literature. The results underscore the potential of the proposed method to outperform existing models, marking a significant progression in the field of cryptocurrency price prediction.

We introduce a novel methodology for identifying adversarial attacks on deepfake detectors using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI). In an era characterized by digital advancement, deepfakes have emerged as a potent tool, creating a demand for efficient detection systems. However, these systems are frequently targeted by adversarial attacks that inhibit their performance. We address this gap, developing a defensible deepfake detector by leveraging the power of XAI. The proposed methodology uses XAI to generate interpretability maps for a given method, providing explicit visualizations of decision-making factors within the AI models. We subsequently employ a pretrained feature extractor that processes both the input image and its corresponding XAI image. The feature embeddings extracted from this process are then used for training a simple yet effective classifier. Our approach contributes not only to the detection of deepfakes but also enhances the understanding of possible adversarial attacks, pinpointing potential vulnerabilities. Furthermore, this approach does not change the performance of the deepfake detector. The paper demonstrates promising results suggesting a potential pathway for future deepfake detection mechanisms. We believe this study will serve as a valuable contribution to the community, sparking much-needed discourse on safeguarding deepfake detectors.

Machine learning (ML) provides powerful tools for predictive modeling. ML's popularity stems from the promise of sample-level prediction with applications across a variety of fields from physics and marketing to healthcare. However, if not properly implemented and evaluated, ML pipelines may contain leakage typically resulting in overoptimistic performance estimates and failure to generalize to new data. This can have severe negative financial and societal implications. Our aim is to expand understanding associated with causes leading to leakage when designing, implementing, and evaluating ML pipelines. Illustrated by concrete examples, we provide a comprehensive overview and discussion of various types of leakage that may arise in ML pipelines.

Recent artificial intelligence (AI) systems have reached milestones in "grand challenges" ranging from Go to protein-folding. The capability to retrieve medical knowledge, reason over it, and answer medical questions comparably to physicians has long been viewed as one such grand challenge. Large language models (LLMs) have catalyzed significant progress in medical question answering; Med-PaLM was the first model to exceed a "passing" score in US Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) style questions with a score of 67.2% on the MedQA dataset. However, this and other prior work suggested significant room for improvement, especially when models' answers were compared to clinicians' answers. Here we present Med-PaLM 2, which bridges these gaps by leveraging a combination of base LLM improvements (PaLM 2), medical domain finetuning, and prompting strategies including a novel ensemble refinement approach. Med-PaLM 2 scored up to 86.5% on the MedQA dataset, improving upon Med-PaLM by over 19% and setting a new state-of-the-art. We also observed performance approaching or exceeding state-of-the-art across MedMCQA, PubMedQA, and MMLU clinical topics datasets. We performed detailed human evaluations on long-form questions along multiple axes relevant to clinical applications. In pairwise comparative ranking of 1066 consumer medical questions, physicians preferred Med-PaLM 2 answers to those produced by physicians on eight of nine axes pertaining to clinical utility (p < 0.001). We also observed significant improvements compared to Med-PaLM on every evaluation axis (p < 0.001) on newly introduced datasets of 240 long-form "adversarial" questions to probe LLM limitations. While further studies are necessary to validate the efficacy of these models in real-world settings, these results highlight rapid progress towards physician-level performance in medical question answering.

The generalization mystery in deep learning is the following: Why do over-parameterized neural networks trained with gradient descent (GD) generalize well on real datasets even though they are capable of fitting random datasets of comparable size? Furthermore, from among all solutions that fit the training data, how does GD find one that generalizes well (when such a well-generalizing solution exists)? We argue that the answer to both questions lies in the interaction of the gradients of different examples during training. Intuitively, if the per-example gradients are well-aligned, that is, if they are coherent, then one may expect GD to be (algorithmically) stable, and hence generalize well. We formalize this argument with an easy to compute and interpretable metric for coherence, and show that the metric takes on very different values on real and random datasets for several common vision networks. The theory also explains a number of other phenomena in deep learning, such as why some examples are reliably learned earlier than others, why early stopping works, and why it is possible to learn from noisy labels. Moreover, since the theory provides a causal explanation of how GD finds a well-generalizing solution when one exists, it motivates a class of simple modifications to GD that attenuate memorization and improve generalization. Generalization in deep learning is an extremely broad phenomenon, and therefore, it requires an equally general explanation. We conclude with a survey of alternative lines of attack on this problem, and argue that the proposed approach is the most viable one on this basis.

We study the problem of incorporating prior knowledge into a deep Transformer-based model,i.e.,Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), to enhance its performance on semantic textual matching tasks. By probing and analyzing what BERT has already known when solving this task, we obtain better understanding of what task-specific knowledge BERT needs the most and where it is most needed. The analysis further motivates us to take a different approach than most existing works. Instead of using prior knowledge to create a new training task for fine-tuning BERT, we directly inject knowledge into BERT's multi-head attention mechanism. This leads us to a simple yet effective approach that enjoys fast training stage as it saves the model from training on additional data or tasks other than the main task. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed knowledge-enhanced BERT is able to consistently improve semantic textual matching performance over the original BERT model, and the performance benefit is most salient when training data is scarce.

Translational distance-based knowledge graph embedding has shown progressive improvements on the link prediction task, from TransE to the latest state-of-the-art RotatE. However, N-1, 1-N and N-N predictions still remain challenging. In this work, we propose a novel translational distance-based approach for knowledge graph link prediction. The proposed method includes two-folds, first we extend the RotatE from 2D complex domain to high dimension space with orthogonal transforms to model relations for better modeling capacity. Second, the graph context is explicitly modeled via two directed context representations. These context representations are used as part of the distance scoring function to measure the plausibility of the triples during training and inference. The proposed approach effectively improves prediction accuracy on the difficult N-1, 1-N and N-N cases for knowledge graph link prediction task. The experimental results show that it achieves better performance on two benchmark data sets compared to the baseline RotatE, especially on data set (FB15k-237) with many high in-degree connection nodes.