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We investigate the descriptive complexity of a class of neural networks with unrestricted topologies and piecewise polynomial activation functions. We consider the general scenario where the running time is unlimited and floating-point numbers are used for simulating reals. We characterize these neural networks with a rule-based logic for Boolean networks. In particular, we show that the sizes of the neural networks and the corresponding Boolean rule formulae are polynomially related. In fact, in the direction from Boolean rules to neural networks, the blow-up is only linear. We also analyze the delays in running times due to the translations. In the translation from neural networks to Boolean rules, the time delay is polylogarithmic in the neural network size and linear in time. In the converse translation, the time delay is linear in both factors. We also obtain translations between the rule-based logic for Boolean networks, the diamond-free fragment of modal substitution calculus and a class of recursive Boolean circuits where the number of input and output gates match.

This paper considers the epistemic justification for a simplicity preference in inductive inference that may be obtained from the machine learning framework of statistical learning theory. Uniting elements from both earlier arguments suggesting and rejecting such a justification, the paper spells out a qualified means-ends and model-relative justificatory argument, built on statistical learning theory's central mathematical learning guarantee for the method of empirical risk minimization.

Positive semidefinite (PSD) matrices are indispensable in many fields of science. A similarity measurement for such matrices is usually an essential ingredient in the mathematical modelling of a scientific problem. This paper proposes a unified framework to construct similarity measurements for PSD matrices. The framework is obtained by exploring the fiber bundle structure of the cone of PSD matrices and generalizing the idea of the point-set distance previously developed for linear subsapces and positive definite (PD) matrices. The framework demonstrates both theoretical advantages and computational convenience: (1) We prove that the similarity measurement constructed by the framework can be recognized either as the cost of a parallel transport or as the length of a quasi-geodesic curve. (2) We extend commonly used divergences for equidimensional PD matrices to the non-equidimensional case. Examples include Kullback-Leibler divergence, Bhattacharyya divergence and R\'enyi divergence. We prove that these extensions enjoy the same consistency property as their counterpart for geodesic distance. (3) We apply our geometric framework to further extend those in (2) to similarity measurements for arbitrary PSD matrices. We also provide simple formulae to compute these similarity measurements in most situations.

The focus of precision medicine is on decision support, often in the form of dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs), which are sequences of decision rules. At each decision point, the decision rules determine the next treatment according to the patient's baseline characteristics, the information on treatments and responses accrued by that point, and the patient's current health status, including symptom severity and other measures. However, DTR estimation with ordinal outcomes is rarely studied, and rarer still in the context of interference - where one patient's treatment may affect another's outcome. In this paper, we introduce the weighted proportional odds model (WPOM): a regression-based, approximate doubly-robust approach to single-stage DTR estimation for ordinal outcomes. This method also accounts for the possibility of interference between individuals sharing a household through the use of covariate balancing weights derived from joint propensity scores. Examining different types of balancing weights, we verify the approximate double robustness of WPOM with our adjusted weights via simulation studies. We further extend WPOM to multi-stage DTR estimation with household interference, namely dWPOM (dynamic WPOM). Lastly, we demonstrate our proposed methodology in the analysis of longitudinal survey data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study, which motivates this work. Furthermore, considering interference, we provide optimal treatment strategies for households to achieve smoking cessation of the pair in the household.

Estimating dependence relationships between variables is a crucial issue in many applied domains, such as medicine, social sciences and psychology. When several variables are entertained, these can be organized into a network which encodes their set of conditional dependence relations. Typically however, the underlying network structure is completely unknown or can be partially drawn only; accordingly it should be learned from the available data, a process known as structure learning. In addition, data arising from social and psychological studies are often of different types, as they can include categorical, discrete and continuous measurements. In this paper we develop a novel Bayesian methodology for structure learning of directed networks which applies to mixed data, i.e. possibly containing continuous, discrete, ordinal and binary variables simultaneously. Whenever available, our method can easily incorporate known dependence structures among variables represented by paths or edge directions that can be postulated in advance based on the specific problem under consideration. We evaluate the proposed method through extensive simulation studies, with appreciable performances in comparison with current state-of-the-art alternative methods. Finally, we apply our methodology to well-being data from a social survey promoted by the United Nations, and mental health data collected from a cohort of medical students.

Fusing measurements from multiple, heterogeneous, partial sources, observing a common object or process, poses challenges due to the increasing availability of numbers and types of sensors. In this work we propose, implement and validate an end-to-end computational pipeline in the form of a multiple-auto-encoder neural network architecture for this task. The inputs to the pipeline are several sets of partial observations, and the result is a globally consistent latent space, harmonizing (rigidifying, fusing) all measurements. The key enabler is the availability of multiple slightly perturbed measurements of each instance:, local measurement, "bursts", that allows us to estimate the local distortion induced by each instrument. We demonstrate the approach in a sequence of examples, starting with simple two-dimensional data sets and proceeding to a Wi-Fi localization problem and to the solution of a "dynamical puzzle" arising in spatio-temporal observations of the solutions of Partial Differential Equations.

At the staggering pace with which the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) are increasing, creating future-proof evaluation sets to assess their understanding becomes more and more challenging. In this paper, we propose a novel paradigm for evaluating LLMs which leverages the idea that correct world understanding should be consistent across different (Fregean) senses of the same meaning. Accordingly, we measure understanding not in terms of correctness but by evaluating consistency across multiple senses that are generated by the model itself. We showcase our approach by instantiating a test where the different senses are different languages, hence using multilingual self-consistency as a litmus test for the model's understanding and simultaneously addressing the important topic of multilinguality. Taking one of the latest versions of ChatGPT as our object of study, we evaluate multilingual consistency for two different tasks across three different languages. We show that its multilingual consistency is still lacking, and that its task and world understanding are thus not language-independent. As our approach does not require any static evaluation corpora in languages other than English, it can easily and cheaply be extended to different languages and tasks and could become an integral part of future benchmarking efforts.

Interrogating the evolution of biological changes at early stages of life requires longitudinal profiling of molecules, such as DNA methylation, which can be challenging with children. We introduce a probabilistic and longitudinal machine learning framework based on multi-mean Gaussian processes (GPs), accounting for individual and gene correlations across time. This method provides future predictions of DNA methylation status at different individual ages while accounting for uncertainty. Our model is trained on a birth cohort of children with methylation profiled at ages 0-4, and we demonstrated that the status of methylation sites for each child can be accurately predicted at ages 5-7. We show that methylation profiles predicted by multi-mean GPs can be used to estimate other phenotypes, such as epigenetic age, and enable comparison to other health measures of interest. This approach encourages epigenetic studies to move towards longitudinal design for investigating epigenetic changes during development, ageing and disease progression.

We hypothesize that due to the greedy nature of learning in multi-modal deep neural networks, these models tend to rely on just one modality while under-fitting the other modalities. Such behavior is counter-intuitive and hurts the models' generalization, as we observe empirically. To estimate the model's dependence on each modality, we compute the gain on the accuracy when the model has access to it in addition to another modality. We refer to this gain as the conditional utilization rate. In the experiments, we consistently observe an imbalance in conditional utilization rates between modalities, across multiple tasks and architectures. Since conditional utilization rate cannot be computed efficiently during training, we introduce a proxy for it based on the pace at which the model learns from each modality, which we refer to as the conditional learning speed. We propose an algorithm to balance the conditional learning speeds between modalities during training and demonstrate that it indeed addresses the issue of greedy learning. The proposed algorithm improves the model's generalization on three datasets: Colored MNIST, Princeton ModelNet40, and NVIDIA Dynamic Hand Gesture.

Recent advances in 3D fully convolutional networks (FCN) have made it feasible to produce dense voxel-wise predictions of volumetric images. In this work, we show that a multi-class 3D FCN trained on manually labeled CT scans of several anatomical structures (ranging from the large organs to thin vessels) can achieve competitive segmentation results, while avoiding the need for handcrafting features or training class-specific models. To this end, we propose a two-stage, coarse-to-fine approach that will first use a 3D FCN to roughly define a candidate region, which will then be used as input to a second 3D FCN. This reduces the number of voxels the second FCN has to classify to ~10% and allows it to focus on more detailed segmentation of the organs and vessels. We utilize training and validation sets consisting of 331 clinical CT images and test our models on a completely unseen data collection acquired at a different hospital that includes 150 CT scans, targeting three anatomical organs (liver, spleen, and pancreas). In challenging organs such as the pancreas, our cascaded approach improves the mean Dice score from 68.5 to 82.2%, achieving the highest reported average score on this dataset. We compare with a 2D FCN method on a separate dataset of 240 CT scans with 18 classes and achieve a significantly higher performance in small organs and vessels. Furthermore, we explore fine-tuning our models to different datasets. Our experiments illustrate the promise and robustness of current 3D FCN based semantic segmentation of medical images, achieving state-of-the-art results. Our code and trained models are available for download: //github.com/holgerroth/3Dunet_abdomen_cascade.