Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model requires professional knowledge and experience, making accurate forecasting a challenging task. To mitigate the importance of model selection, we propose a simple and reliable algorithm to improve the forecasting performance. Specifically, we construct multiple time series with different sub-seasons from the original time series. These derived series highlight different sub-seasonal patterns of the original series, making it possible for the forecasting methods to capture diverse patterns and components of the data. Subsequently, we produce forecasts for these multiple series separately with classical statistical models (ETS or ARIMA). Finally, the forecasts are combined. We evaluate our approach on widely-used forecasting competition data sets (M1, M3, and M4) in terms of both point forecasts and prediction intervals. We observe performance improvements compared with the benchmarks. Our approach is particularly suitable and robust for the data with higher frequency. To demonstrate the practical value of our proposition, we showcase the performance improvements from our approach on hourly load data that exhibit multiple seasonal patterns.
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We enhance the accuracy and generalization of univariate time series point prediction by an explainable ensemble on the fly. We propose an Interpretable Dynamic Ensemble Architecture (IDEA), in which interpretable base learners give predictions independently with sparse communication as a group. The model is composed of several sequentially stacked groups connected by group backcast residuals and recurrent input competition. Ensemble driven by end-to-end training both horizontally and vertically brings state-of-the-art (SOTA) performances. Forecast accuracy improves by 2.6% over the best statistical benchmark on the TOURISM dataset and 2% over the best deep learning benchmark on the M4 dataset. The architecture enjoys several advantages, being applicable to time series from various domains, explainable to users with specialized modular structure and robust to changes in task distribution.
We address the problem of production planning and distribution in multi-echelon supply chains. We consider uncertain demands and lead times which makes the problem stochastic and non-linear. A Markov Decision Process formulation and a Non-linear Programming model are presented. As a sequential decision-making problem, Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a possible solution approach. This type of technique has gained a lot of attention from Artificial Intelligence and Optimization communities in recent years. Considering the good results obtained with Deep RL approaches in different areas there is a growing interest in applying them in problems from the Operations Research field. We have used a Deep RL technique, namely Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO2), to solve the problem considering uncertain, regular and seasonal demands and constant or stochastic lead times. Experiments are carried out in different scenarios to better assess the suitability of the algorithm. An agent based on a linearized model is used as a baseline. Experimental results indicate that PPO2 is a competitive and adequate tool for this type of problem. PPO2 agent is better than baseline in all scenarios with stochastic lead times (7.3-11.2%), regardless of whether demands are seasonal or not. In scenarios with constant lead times, the PPO2 agent is better when uncertain demands are non-seasonal (2.2-4.7%). The results show that the greater the uncertainty of the scenario, the greater the viability of this type of approach.
Time series forecasting is widely used in business intelligence, e.g., forecast stock market price, sales, and help the analysis of data trend. Most time series of interest are macroscopic time series that are aggregated from microscopic data. However, instead of directly modeling the macroscopic time series, rare literature studied the forecasting of macroscopic time series by leveraging data on the microscopic level. In this paper, we assume that the microscopic time series follow some unknown mixture probabilistic distributions. We theoretically show that as we identify the ground truth latent mixture components, the estimation of time series from each component could be improved because of lower variance, thus benefitting the estimation of macroscopic time series as well. Inspired by the power of Seq2seq and its variants on the modeling of time series data, we propose Mixture of Seq2seq (MixSeq), an end2end mixture model to cluster microscopic time series, where all the components come from a family of Seq2seq models parameterized by different parameters. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show the superiority of our approach.
Spatio-temporal forecasting has numerous applications in analyzing wireless, traffic, and financial networks. Many classical statistical models often fall short in handling the complexity and high non-linearity present in time-series data. Recent advances in deep learning allow for better modelling of spatial and temporal dependencies. While most of these models focus on obtaining accurate point forecasts, they do not characterize the prediction uncertainty. In this work, we consider the time-series data as a random realization from a nonlinear state-space model and target Bayesian inference of the hidden states for probabilistic forecasting. We use particle flow as the tool for approximating the posterior distribution of the states, as it is shown to be highly effective in complex, high-dimensional settings. Thorough experimentation on several real world time-series datasets demonstrates that our approach provides better characterization of uncertainty while maintaining comparable accuracy to the state-of-the art point forecasting methods.
There recently has been a surge of interest in developing a new class of deep learning (DL) architectures that integrate an explicit time dimension as a fundamental building block of learning and representation mechanisms. In turn, many recent results show that topological descriptors of the observed data, encoding information on the shape of the dataset in a topological space at different scales, that is, persistent homology of the data, may contain important complementary information, improving both performance and robustness of DL. As convergence of these two emerging ideas, we propose to enhance DL architectures with the most salient time-conditioned topological information of the data and introduce the concept of zigzag persistence into time-aware graph convolutional networks (GCNs). Zigzag persistence provides a systematic and mathematically rigorous framework to track the most important topological features of the observed data that tend to manifest themselves over time. To integrate the extracted time-conditioned topological descriptors into DL, we develop a new topological summary, zigzag persistence image, and derive its theoretical stability guarantees. We validate the new GCNs with a time-aware zigzag topological layer (Z-GCNETs), in application to traffic forecasting and Ethereum blockchain price prediction. Our results indicate that Z-GCNET outperforms 13 state-of-the-art methods on 4 time series datasets.
Time Series Classification (TSC) is an important and challenging problem in data mining. With the increase of time series data availability, hundreds of TSC algorithms have been proposed. Among these methods, only a few have considered Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform this task. This is surprising as deep learning has seen very successful applications in the last years. DNNs have indeed revolutionized the field of computer vision especially with the advent of novel deeper architectures such as Residual and Convolutional Neural Networks. Apart from images, sequential data such as text and audio can also be processed with DNNs to reach state-of-the-art performance for document classification and speech recognition. In this article, we study the current state-of-the-art performance of deep learning algorithms for TSC by presenting an empirical study of the most recent DNN architectures for TSC. We give an overview of the most successful deep learning applications in various time series domains under a unified taxonomy of DNNs for TSC. We also provide an open source deep learning framework to the TSC community where we implemented each of the compared approaches and evaluated them on a univariate TSC benchmark (the UCR/UEA archive) and 12 multivariate time series datasets. By training 8,730 deep learning models on 97 time series datasets, we propose the most exhaustive study of DNNs for TSC to date.
Inferencing with network data necessitates the mapping of its nodes into a vector space, where the relationships are preserved. However, with multi-layered networks, where multiple types of relationships exist for the same set of nodes, it is crucial to exploit the information shared between layers, in addition to the distinct aspects of each layer. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that first obtains node embeddings in all layers jointly via DeepWalk on a \textit{supra} graph, which allows interactions between layers, and then fine-tunes the embeddings to encourage cohesive structure in the latent space. With empirical studies in node classification, link prediction and multi-layered community detection, we show that the proposed approach outperforms existing single- and multi-layered network embedding algorithms on several benchmarks. In addition to effectively scaling to a large number of layers (tested up to $37$), our approach consistently produces highly modular community structure, even when compared to methods that directly optimize for the modularity function.
Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.
Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.
We consider the task of learning the parameters of a {\em single} component of a mixture model, for the case when we are given {\em side information} about that component, we call this the "search problem" in mixture models. We would like to solve this with computational and sample complexity lower than solving the overall original problem, where one learns parameters of all components. Our main contributions are the development of a simple but general model for the notion of side information, and a corresponding simple matrix-based algorithm for solving the search problem in this general setting. We then specialize this model and algorithm to four common scenarios: Gaussian mixture models, LDA topic models, subspace clustering, and mixed linear regression. For each one of these we show that if (and only if) the side information is informative, we obtain parameter estimates with greater accuracy, and also improved computation complexity than existing moment based mixture model algorithms (e.g. tensor methods). We also illustrate several natural ways one can obtain such side information, for specific problem instances. Our experiments on real data sets (NY Times, Yelp, BSDS500) further demonstrate the practicality of our algorithms showing significant improvement in runtime and accuracy.
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