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Cross-validation techniques for risk estimation and model selection are widely used in statistics and machine learning. However, the understanding of the theoretical properties of learning via model selection with cross-validation risk estimation is quite low in face of its widespread use. In this context, this paper presents learning via model selection with cross-validation risk estimation as a general systematic learning framework within classical statistical learning theory and establishes distribution-free deviation bounds in terms of VC dimension, giving detailed proofs of the results and considering both bounded and unbounded loss functions. In particular, we investigate how the generalization of learning via model selection may be increased by modeling the collection of candidate models. We define the Learning Spaces as a class of candidate models in which the partial order by inclusion reflects the models complexities, and we formalize a manner of defining them based on domain knowledge. We illustrate this modeling in a worst-case scenario of learning a classifier with finite domain and a typical scenario of linear regression. Through theoretical insights and concrete examples, we aim to provide guidance on selecting the family of candidate models based on domain knowledge to increase generalization.

Probabilistic graphical models are widely used to model complex systems under uncertainty. Traditionally, Gaussian directed graphical models are applied for analysis of large networks with continuous variables as they can provide conditional and marginal distributions in closed form simplifying the inferential task. The Gaussianity and linearity assumptions are often adequate, yet can lead to poor performance when dealing with some practical applications. In this paper, we model each variable in graph G as a polynomial regression of its parents to capture complex relationships between individual variables and with a utility function of polynomial form. We develop a message-passing algorithm to propagate information throughout the network solely using moments which enables the expected utility scores to be calculated exactly. Our propagation method scales up well and enables to perform inference in terms of a finite number of expectations. We illustrate how the proposed methodology works with examples and in an application to decision problems in energy planning and for real-time clinical decision support.

The Intrinsic Dimension (ID) is a key concept in unsupervised learning and feature selection, as it is a lower bound to the number of variables which are necessary to describe a system. However, in almost any real-world dataset the ID depends on the scale at which the data are analysed. Quite typically at a small scale, the ID is very large, as the data are affected by measurement errors. At large scale, the ID can also be erroneously large, due to the curvature and the topology of the manifold containing the data. In this work, we introduce an automatic protocol to select the sweet spot, namely the correct range of scales in which the ID is meaningful and useful. This protocol is based on imposing that for distances smaller than the correct scale the density of the data is constant. Since to estimate the density it is necessary to know the ID, this condition is imposed self-consistently. We illustrate the usefulness and robustness of this procedure by benchmarks on artificial and real-world datasets.

Graph representation learning (GRL) is critical for extracting insights from complex network structures, but it also raises security concerns due to potential privacy vulnerabilities in these representations. This paper investigates the structural vulnerabilities in graph neural models where sensitive topological information can be inferred through edge reconstruction attacks. Our research primarily addresses the theoretical underpinnings of similarity-based edge reconstruction attacks (SERA), furnishing a non-asymptotic analysis of their reconstruction capacities. Moreover, we present empirical corroboration indicating that such attacks can perfectly reconstruct sparse graphs as graph size increases. Conversely, we establish that sparsity is a critical factor for SERA's effectiveness, as demonstrated through analysis and experiments on (dense) stochastic block models. Finally, we explore the resilience of private graph representations produced via noisy aggregation (NAG) mechanism against SERA. Through theoretical analysis and empirical assessments, we affirm the mitigation of SERA using NAG . In parallel, we also empirically delineate instances wherein SERA demonstrates both efficacy and deficiency in its capacity to function as an instrument for elucidating the trade-off between privacy and utility.

Latent variable models serve as powerful tools to infer underlying dynamics from observed neural activity. However, due to the absence of ground truth data, prediction benchmarks are often employed as proxies. In this study, we reveal the limitations of the widely-used 'co-smoothing' prediction framework and propose an improved few-shot prediction approach that encourages more accurate latent dynamics. Utilizing a student-teacher setup with Hidden Markov Models, we demonstrate that the high co-smoothing model space can encompass models with arbitrary extraneous dynamics within their latent representations. To address this, we introduce a secondary metric -- a few-shot version of co-smoothing. This involves performing regression from the latent variables to held-out channels in the data using fewer trials. Our results indicate that among models with near-optimal co-smoothing, those with extraneous dynamics underperform in the few-shot co-smoothing compared to 'minimal' models devoid of such dynamics. We also provide analytical insights into the origin of this phenomenon. We further validate our findings on real neural data using two state-of-the-art methods: LFADS and STNDT. In the absence of ground truth, we suggest a proxy measure to quantify extraneous dynamics. By cross-decoding the latent variables of all model pairs with high co-smoothing, we identify models with minimal extraneous dynamics. We find a correlation between few-shot co-smoothing performance and this new measure. In summary, we present a novel prediction metric designed to yield latent variables that more accurately reflect the ground truth, offering a significant improvement for latent dynamics inference.

We investigate analytically the behaviour of the penalized maximum partial likelihood estimator (PMPLE). Our results are derived for a generic separable regularization, but we focus on the elastic net. This penalization is routinely adopted for survival analysis in the high dimensional regime, where the Maximum Partial Likelihood estimator (no regularization) might not even exist. Previous theoretical results require that the number $s$ of non-zero association coefficients is $O(n^{\alpha})$, with $\alpha \in (0,1)$ and $n$ the sample size. Here we accurately characterize the behaviour of the PMPLE when $s$ is proportional to $n$ via the solution of a system of six non-linear equations that can be easily obtained by fixed point iteration. These equations are derived by means of the replica method and under the assumption that the covariates $\mathbf{X}\in \mathbb{R}^p$ follow a multivariate Gaussian law with covariance $\mathbf{I}_p/p$. The solution of the previous equations allows us to investigate the dependency of various metrics of interest and hence their dependency on the ratio $\zeta = p/n$, the fraction of true active components $\nu = s/p$, and the regularization strength. We validate our results by extensive numerical simulations.

We study the expressivity and the complexity of various logics in probabilistic team semantics with the Boolean negation. In particular, we study the extension of probabilistic independence logic with the Boolean negation, and a recently introduced logic FOPT. We give a comprehensive picture of the relative expressivity of these logics together with the most studied logics in probabilistic team semantics setting, as well as relating their expressivity to a numerical variant of second-order logic. In addition, we introduce novel entropy atoms and show that the extension of first-order logic by entropy atoms subsumes probabilistic independence logic. Finally, we obtain some results on the complexity of model checking, validity, and satisfiability of our logics.

We introduce a test of uniformity for (hyper)spherical data motivated by the stereographic projection. The closed-form expression of the test statistic and its null asymptotic distribution are derived using Gegenbauer polynomials. The power against rotationally symmetric local alternatives is provided, and simulations illustrate the non-null asymptotic results. The stereographic test outperforms other tests in a testing scenario with antipodal dependence.

The largest eigenvalue of the Hessian, or sharpness, of neural networks is a key quantity to understand their optimization dynamics. In this paper, we study the sharpness of deep linear networks for overdetermined univariate regression. Minimizers can have arbitrarily large sharpness, but not an arbitrarily small one. Indeed, we show a lower bound on the sharpness of minimizers, which grows linearly with depth. We then study the properties of the minimizer found by gradient flow, which is the limit of gradient descent with vanishing learning rate. We show an implicit regularization towards flat minima: the sharpness of the minimizer is no more than a constant times the lower bound. The constant depends on the condition number of the data covariance matrix, but not on width or depth. This result is proven both for a small-scale initialization and a residual initialization. Results of independent interest are shown in both cases. For small-scale initialization, we show that the learned weight matrices are approximately rank-one and that their singular vectors align. For residual initialization, convergence of the gradient flow for a Gaussian initialization of the residual network is proven. Numerical experiments illustrate our results and connect them to gradient descent with non-vanishing learning rate.

Human-in-the-loop aims to train an accurate prediction model with minimum cost by integrating human knowledge and experience. Humans can provide training data for machine learning applications and directly accomplish some tasks that are hard for computers in the pipeline with the help of machine-based approaches. In this paper, we survey existing works on human-in-the-loop from a data perspective and classify them into three categories with a progressive relationship: (1) the work of improving model performance from data processing, (2) the work of improving model performance through interventional model training, and (3) the design of the system independent human-in-the-loop. Using the above categorization, we summarize major approaches in the field, along with their technical strengths/ weaknesses, we have simple classification and discussion in natural language processing, computer vision, and others. Besides, we provide some open challenges and opportunities. This survey intends to provide a high-level summarization for human-in-the-loop and motivates interested readers to consider approaches for designing effective human-in-the-loop solutions.