Large language models (LLMs) are able to do accurate classification with zero or only a few examples (in-context learning). We show a prompting system that enables regression with uncertainty for in-context learning with frozen LLM (GPT-3, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4) models, allowing predictions without features or architecture tuning. By incorporating uncertainty, our approach enables Bayesian optimization for catalyst or molecule optimization using natural language, eliminating the need for training or simulation. Here, we performed the optimization using the synthesis procedure of catalysts to predict properties. Working with natural language mitigates difficulty synthesizability since the literal synthesis procedure is the model's input. We showed that in-context learning could improve past a model context window (maximum number of tokens the model can process at once) as data is gathered via example selection, allowing the model to scale better. Although our method does not outperform all baselines, it requires zero training, feature selection, and minimal computing while maintaining satisfactory performance. We also find Gaussian Process Regression on text embeddings is strong at Bayesian optimization. The code is available in our GitHub repository: //github.com/ur-whitelab/BO-LIFT
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Ensuring the reliability and availability of cloud services necessitates efficient root cause analysis (RCA) for cloud incidents. Traditional RCA methods, which rely on manual investigations of data sources such as logs and traces, are often laborious, error-prone, and challenging for on-call engineers. In this paper, we introduce RCACopilot, an innovative On-call system empowered by the Large Language Model for automating RCA of cloud incidents. RCACopilot matches incoming incidents to corresponding handlers based on their alert types, aggregates the critical runtime diagnostic information, predicts the incident's root cause category, and provides an explanatory narrative. We evaluate RCACopilot using a real-world dataset consisting of a year's worth of incidents from serviceX in companyX. Our evaluation demonstrates that RCACopilot achieves RCA accuracy up to 0.766. Furthermore, the diagnostic information collection component of RCACopilot has been successfully in use at companyX for over four years.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performance in various basic natural language tasks, which raises hope for achieving Artificial General Intelligence. For completing the complex task, we still need a program for the task first and then ask LLMs to follow the program to generate the specific solution. We propose using natural language as a new programming language to describe task procedures, making them easily understandable to both humans and LLMs. ~The LLM is capable of directly generating natural language programs, but these programs may still contain factual errors or incomplete steps. Therefore, we further propose the Learning to Program (\text{LP}) method to ask LLMs themselves to learn the natural language program based on the training dataset of the complex task first and then use the learned program to guide the inference. Our experiments on the reasoning tasks of five different reasoning types (8 datasets) demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Further, our analysis experiment shows that the learned program can be directly used to guide another LLM to improve its performance, which reveals a new transfer learning paradigm.
Despite recent progress in text-to-SQL parsing, current semantic parsers are still not accurate enough for practical use. In this paper, we investigate how to build automatic text-to-SQL error correction models. Noticing that token-level edits are out of context and sometimes ambiguous, we propose building clause-level edit models instead. Besides, while most language models of code are not specifically pre-trained for SQL, they know common data structures and their operations in programming languages such as Python. Thus, we propose a novel representation for SQL queries and their edits that adheres more closely to the pre-training corpora of language models of code. Our error correction model improves the exact set match accuracy of different parsers by 2.4-6.5 and obtains up to 4.3 point absolute improvement over two strong baselines. Our code and data are available at //github.com/OSU-NLP-Group/Auto-SQL-Correction.
The deployment of large-scale generative models is often restricted by their potential risk of causing harm to users in unpredictable ways. We focus on the problem of black-box red teaming, where a red team generates test cases and interacts with the victim model to discover a diverse set of failures with limited query access. Existing red teaming methods construct test cases based on human supervision or language model (LM) and query all test cases in a brute-force manner without incorporating any information from past evaluations, resulting in a prohibitively large number of queries. To this end, we propose Bayesian red teaming (BRT), novel query-efficient black-box red teaming methods based on Bayesian optimization, which iteratively identify diverse positive test cases leading to model failures by utilizing the pre-defined user input pool and the past evaluations. Experimental results on various user input pools demonstrate that our method consistently finds a significantly larger number of diverse positive test cases under the limited query budget than the baseline methods. The source code is available at //github.com/snu-mllab/Bayesian-Red-Teaming.
This study focuses on the topic of offline preference-based reinforcement learning (PbRL), a variant of conventional reinforcement learning that dispenses with the need for online interaction or specification of reward functions. Instead, the agent is provided with pre-existing offline trajectories and human preferences between pairs of trajectories to extract the dynamics and task information, respectively. Since the dynamics and task information are orthogonal, a naive approach would involve using preference-based reward learning followed by an off-the-shelf offline RL algorithm. However, this requires the separate learning of a scalar reward function, which is assumed to be an information bottleneck. To address this issue, we propose the offline preference-guided policy optimization (OPPO) paradigm, which models offline trajectories and preferences in a one-step process, eliminating the need for separately learning a reward function. OPPO achieves this by introducing an offline hindsight information matching objective for optimizing a contextual policy and a preference modeling objective for finding the optimal context. OPPO further integrates a well-performing decision policy by optimizing the two objectives iteratively. Our empirical results demonstrate that OPPO effectively models offline preferences and outperforms prior competing baselines, including offline RL algorithms performed over either true or pseudo reward function specifications. Our code is available at //github.com/bkkgbkjb/OPPO .
What can be learned about causality and experimentation from passive data? This question is salient given recent successes of passively-trained language models in interactive domains such as tool use. Passive learning is inherently limited. However, we show that purely passive learning can in fact allow an agent to learn generalizable strategies for determining and using causal structures, as long as the agent can intervene at test time. We formally illustrate that learning a strategy of first experimenting, then seeking goals, can allow generalization from passive learning in principle. We then show empirically that agents trained via imitation on expert data can indeed generalize at test time to infer and use causal links which are never present in the training data; these agents can also generalize experimentation strategies to novel variable sets never observed in training. We then show that strategies for causal intervention and exploitation can be generalized from passive data even in a more complex environment with high-dimensional observations, with the support of natural language explanations. Explanations can even allow passive learners to generalize out-of-distribution from perfectly-confounded training data. Finally, we show that language models, trained only on passive next-word prediction, can generalize causal intervention strategies from a few-shot prompt containing examples of experimentation, together with explanations and reasoning. These results highlight the surprising power of passive learning of active causal strategies, and may help to understand the behaviors and capabilities of language models.
In the past few years we have seen the meteoric appearance of dozens of foundation models of the Transformer family, all of which have memorable and sometimes funny, but not self-explanatory, names. The goal of this paper is to offer a somewhat comprehensive but simple catalog and classification of the most popular Transformer models. The paper also includes an introduction to the most important aspects and innovations in Transformer models. Our catalog will include models that are trained using self-supervised learning (e.g., BERT or GPT3) as well as those that are further trained using a human-in-the-loop (e.g. the InstructGPT model used by ChatGPT).
The dominating NLP paradigm of training a strong neural predictor to perform one task on a specific dataset has led to state-of-the-art performance in a variety of applications (eg. sentiment classification, span-prediction based question answering or machine translation). However, it builds upon the assumption that the data distribution is stationary, ie. that the data is sampled from a fixed distribution both at training and test time. This way of training is inconsistent with how we as humans are able to learn from and operate within a constantly changing stream of information. Moreover, it is ill-adapted to real-world use cases where the data distribution is expected to shift over the course of a model's lifetime. The first goal of this thesis is to characterize the different forms this shift can take in the context of natural language processing, and propose benchmarks and evaluation metrics to measure its effect on current deep learning architectures. We then proceed to take steps to mitigate the effect of distributional shift on NLP models. To this end, we develop methods based on parametric reformulations of the distributionally robust optimization framework. Empirically, we demonstrate that these approaches yield more robust models as demonstrated on a selection of realistic problems. In the third and final part of this thesis, we explore ways of efficiently adapting existing models to new domains or tasks. Our contribution to this topic takes inspiration from information geometry to derive a new gradient update rule which alleviate catastrophic forgetting issues during adaptation.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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