Several novel statistical methods have been developed to estimate large integrated volatility matrices based on high-frequency financial data. To investigate their asymptotic behaviors, they require a sub-Gaussian or finite high-order moment assumption for observed log-returns, which cannot account for the heavy-tail phenomenon of stock-returns. Recently, a robust estimator was developed to handle heavy-tailed distributions with some bounded fourth-moment assumption. However, we often observe that log-returns have heavier tail distribution than the finite fourth-moment and that the degrees of heaviness of tails are heterogeneous across asset and over time. In this paper, to deal with the heterogeneous heavy-tailed distributions, we develop an adaptive robust integrated volatility estimator that employs pre-averaging and truncation schemes based on jump-diffusion processes. We call this an adaptive robust pre-averaging realized volatility (ARP) estimator. We show that the ARP estimator has a sub-Weibull tail concentration with only finite 2$\alpha$-th moments for any $\alpha>1$. In addition, we establish matching upper and lower bounds to show that the ARP estimation procedure is optimal. To estimate large integrated volatility matrices using the approximate factor model, the ARP estimator is further regularized using the principal orthogonal complement thresholding (POET) method. The numerical study is conducted to check the finite sample performance of the ARP estimator.
Model-based reinforcement learning seeks to simultaneously learn the dynamics of an unknown stochastic environment and synthesise an optimal policy for acting in it. Ensuring the safety and robustness of sequential decisions made through a policy in such an environment is a key challenge for policies intended for safety-critical scenarios. In this work, we investigate two complementary problems: first, computing reach-avoid probabilities for iterative predictions made with dynamical models, with dynamics described by Bayesian neural network (BNN); second, synthesising control policies that are optimal with respect to a given reach-avoid specification (reaching a "target" state, while avoiding a set of "unsafe" states) and a learned BNN model. Our solution leverages interval propagation and backward recursion techniques to compute lower bounds for the probability that a policy's sequence of actions leads to satisfying the reach-avoid specification. Such computed lower bounds provide safety certification for the given policy and BNN model. We then introduce control synthesis algorithms to derive policies maximizing said lower bounds on the safety probability. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on a series of control benchmarks characterized by learned BNN dynamics models. On our most challenging benchmark, compared to purely data-driven policies the optimal synthesis algorithm is able to provide more than a four-fold increase in the number of certifiable states and more than a three-fold increase in the average guaranteed reach-avoid probability.
Deep learning-based vulnerability detection has shown great performance and, in some studies, outperformed static analysis tools. However, the highest-performing approaches use token-based transformer models, which are not the most efficient to capture code semantics required for vulnerability detection. Classical program analysis techniques such as dataflow analysis can detect many types of bugs based on their root causes. In this paper, we propose to combine such causal-based vulnerability detection algorithms with deep learning, aiming to achieve more efficient and effective vulnerability detection. Specifically, we designed DeepDFA, a dataflow analysis-inspired graph learning framework and an embedding technique that enables graph learning to simulate dataflow computation. We show that DeepDFA is both performant and efficient. DeepDFA outperformed all non-transformer baselines. It was trained in 9 minutes, 75x faster than the highest-performing baseline model. When using only 50+ vulnerable and several hundreds of total examples as training data, the model retained the same performance as 100% of the dataset. DeepDFA also generalized to real-world vulnerabilities in DbgBench; it detected 8.7 out of 17 vulnerabilities on average across folds and was able to distinguish between patched and buggy versions, while the highest-performing baseline models did not detect any vulnerabilities. By combining DeepDFA with a large language model, we surpassed the state-of-the-art vulnerability detection performance on the Big-Vul dataset with 96.46 F1 score, 97.82 precision, and 95.14 recall. Our replication package is located at //doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.21225413 .
Face recognition models embed a face image into a low-dimensional identity vector containing abstract encodings of identity-specific facial features that allow individuals to be distinguished from one another. We tackle the challenging task of inverting the latent space of pre-trained face recognition models without full model access (i.e. black-box setting). A variety of methods have been proposed in literature for this task, but they have serious shortcomings such as a lack of realistic outputs and strong requirements for the data set and accessibility of the face recognition model. By analyzing the black-box inversion problem, we show that the conditional diffusion model loss naturally emerges and that we can effectively sample from the inverse distribution even without an identity-specific loss. Our method, named identity denoising diffusion probabilistic model (ID3PM), leverages the stochastic nature of the denoising diffusion process to produce high-quality, identity-preserving face images with various backgrounds, lighting, poses, and expressions. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in terms of identity preservation and diversity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and our method is the first black-box face recognition model inversion method that offers intuitive control over the generation process.
Despite the promising progress in multi-modal tasks, current large multi-modal models (LMMs) are prone to hallucinating inconsistent descriptions with respect to the associated image and human instructions. This paper addresses this issue by introducing the first large and diverse visual instruction tuning dataset, named Large-scale Robust Visual (LRV)-Instruction. Our dataset comprises 400k visual instructions generated by GPT4, covering 16 vision-and-language tasks with open-ended instructions and answers. Unlike existing studies that primarily focus on positive instruction samples, we design LRV-Instruction to include both positive and negative instructions for more robust visual instruction tuning. Our negative instructions are designed at three semantic levels: (i) Nonexistent Object Manipulation, (ii) Existent Object Manipulation and (iii) Knowledge Manipulation. To efficiently measure the hallucination generated by LMMs, we propose GPT4-Assisted Visual Instruction Evaluation (GAVIE), a stable approach to evaluate visual instruction tuning like human experts. GAVIE does not require human-annotated groundtruth answers and can adapt to diverse instruction formats. We conduct comprehensive experiments to investigate the hallucination of LMMs. Our results demonstrate existing LMMs exhibit significant hallucinations when presented with our negative instructions, particularly Existent Object and Knowledge Manipulation instructions. Moreover, we successfully mitigate hallucination by finetuning MiniGPT4 and mPLUG-Owl on LRV-Instruction while improving performance on several public datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, we observed that a balanced ratio of positive and negative instances in the training data leads to a more robust model.
Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting in large language models (LLMs) has shown promising performance on mathematical reasoning tasks. Recently, Self-Consistency samples a diverse set of reasoning chains with different answers and chooses the answer by majority voting. Though effective, its performance cannot be further improved by sampling more reasoning chains. To address this problem, we propose to integrate backward reasoning into answer verification. We first mask a number in the question by ${\bf x}$. The LLM is then asked to predict the masked number with a candidate answer $A$ embedded in the template: ``If we know the answer to the above question is $\{A\}$, what is the value of unknown variable ${\bf x}$?'' The LLM is expected to predict the masked number successfully if the provided candidate answer is correct. To further improve performance, we propose FOBAR (FOrward-BAckward Reasoning) to combine forward and backward reasoning for verifying candidate answers. Experiments are performed on six standard mathematical data sets and three LLMs (text-davinci-003, GPT-3.5-Turbo, GPT-4). Results show that FOBAR achieves state-of-the-art performance. In particular, FOBAR outperforms Self-Consistency which uses forward reasoning alone, demonstrating that combining forward and forward reasoning is better. It also outperforms existing verification methods, verifying the effectiveness of using the simple template in backward reasoning and the proposed combination.
Predictive linear and nonlinear models based on kernel machines or deep neural networks have been used to discover dependencies among time series. This paper proposes an efficient nonlinear modeling approach for multiple time series, with a complexity comparable to linear vector autoregressive (VAR) models while still incorporating nonlinear interactions among different time-series variables. The modeling assumption is that the set of time series is generated in two steps: first, a linear VAR process in a latent space, and second, a set of invertible and Lipschitz continuous nonlinear mappings that are applied per sensor, that is, a component-wise mapping from each latent variable to a variable in the measurement space. The VAR coefficient identification provides a topology representation of the dependencies among the aforementioned variables. The proposed approach models each component-wise nonlinearity using an invertible neural network and imposes sparsity on the VAR coefficients to reflect the parsimonious dependencies usually found in real applications. To efficiently solve the formulated optimization problems, a custom algorithm is devised combining proximal gradient descent, stochastic primal-dual updates, and projection to enforce the corresponding constraints. Experimental results on both synthetic and real data sets show that the proposed algorithm improves the identification of the support of the VAR coefficients in a parsimonious manner while also improving the time-series prediction, as compared to the current state-of-the-art methods.
Transformer architectures have facilitated the development of large-scale and general-purpose sequence models for prediction tasks in natural language processing and computer vision, e.g., GPT-3 and Swin Transformer. Although originally designed for prediction problems, it is natural to inquire about their suitability for sequential decision-making and reinforcement learning problems, which are typically beset by long-standing issues involving sample efficiency, credit assignment, and partial observability. In recent years, sequence models, especially the Transformer, have attracted increasing interest in the RL communities, spawning numerous approaches with notable effectiveness and generalizability. This survey presents a comprehensive overview of recent works aimed at solving sequential decision-making tasks with sequence models such as the Transformer, by discussing the connection between sequential decision-making and sequence modeling, and categorizing them based on the way they utilize the Transformer. Moreover, this paper puts forth various potential avenues for future research intending to improve the effectiveness of large sequence models for sequential decision-making, encompassing theoretical foundations, network architectures, algorithms, and efficient training systems. As this article has been accepted by the Frontiers of Computer Science, here is an early version, and the most up-to-date version can be found at //journal.hep.com.cn/fcs/EN/10.1007/s11704-023-2689-5
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.