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Longitudinal and survival sub-models are two building blocks for joint modelling of longitudinal and time to event data. Extensive research indicates separate analysis of these two processes could result in biased outputs due to their associations. Conditional independence between measurements of biomarkers and event time process given latent classes or random effects is a common approach for characterising the association between the two sub-models while taking the heterogeneity among the population into account. However, this assumption is tricky to validate because of the unobservable latent variables. Thus a Gaussian copula joint model with random effects is proposed to accommodate the scenarios where the conditional independence assumption is questionable. In our proposed model, the conventional joint model assuming conditional independence is a special case when the association parameter in the Gaussian copula shrinks to zero. Simulation studies and real data application are carried out to evaluate the performance of our proposed model. In addition, personalised dynamic predictions of survival probabilities are obtained based on the proposed model and comparisons are made to the predictions obtained under the conventional joint model.

Consensus is a common method for computing a function of the data distributed among the nodes of a network. Of particular interest is distributed average consensus, whereby the nodes iteratively compute the sample average of the data stored at all the nodes of the network using only near-neighbor communications. In real-world scenarios, these communications must undergo quantization, which introduces distortion to the internode messages. In this thesis, a model for the evolution of the network state statistics at each iteration is developed under the assumptions of Gaussian data and additive quantization error. It is shown that minimization of the communication load in terms of aggregate source coding rate can be posed as a generalized geometric program, for which an equivalent convex optimization can efficiently solve for the global minimum. Optimization procedures are developed for rate-distortion-optimal vector quantization, uniform entropy-coded scalar quantization, and fixed-rate uniform quantization. Numerical results demonstrate the performance of these approaches. For small numbers of iterations, the fixed-rate optimizations are verified using exhaustive search. Comparison to the prior art suggests competitive performance under certain circumstances but strongly motivates the incorporation of more sophisticated coding strategies, such as differential, predictive, or Wyner-Ziv coding.

Dropout is conventionally used during the training phase as regularization method and for quantifying uncertainty in deep learning. We propose to use dropout during training as well as inference steps, and average multiple predictions to improve the accuracy, while reducing and quantifying the uncertainty. The results are evaluated for fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) maps which are obtained from only 3 direction scans. With our method, accuracy can be improved significantly compared to network outputs without dropout, especially when the training dataset is small. Moreover, confidence maps are generated which may aid in diagnosis of unseen pathology or artifacts.

Many important real-world problems have action spaces that are high-dimensional, continuous or both, making full enumeration of all possible actions infeasible. Instead, only small subsets of actions can be sampled for the purpose of policy evaluation and improvement. In this paper, we propose a general framework to reason in a principled way about policy evaluation and improvement over such sampled action subsets. This sample-based policy iteration framework can in principle be applied to any reinforcement learning algorithm based upon policy iteration. Concretely, we propose Sampled MuZero, an extension of the MuZero algorithm that is able to learn in domains with arbitrarily complex action spaces by planning over sampled actions. We demonstrate this approach on the classical board game of Go and on two continuous control benchmark domains: DeepMind Control Suite and Real-World RL Suite.

The use of object detection algorithms is becoming increasingly important in autonomous vehicles, and object detection at high accuracy and a fast inference speed is essential for safe autonomous driving. A false positive (FP) from a false localization during autonomous driving can lead to fatal accidents and hinder safe and efficient driving. Therefore, a detection algorithm that can cope with mislocalizations is required in autonomous driving applications. This paper proposes a method for improving the detection accuracy while supporting a real-time operation by modeling the bounding box (bbox) of YOLOv3, which is the most representative of one-stage detectors, with a Gaussian parameter and redesigning the loss function. In addition, this paper proposes a method for predicting the localization uncertainty that indicates the reliability of bbox. By using the predicted localization uncertainty during the detection process, the proposed schemes can significantly reduce the FP and increase the true positive (TP), thereby improving the accuracy. Compared to a conventional YOLOv3, the proposed algorithm, Gaussian YOLOv3, improves the mean average precision (mAP) by 3.09 and 3.5 on the KITTI and Berkeley deep drive (BDD) datasets, respectively. In addition, on the same datasets, the proposed algorithm can reduce the FP by 41.40% and 40.62%, and increase the TP by 7.26% and 4.3%, respectively. Nevertheless, the proposed algorithm is capable of real-time detection at faster than 42 frames per second (fps).

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is a highly popular model-free reinforcement learning (RL) approach. However, in continuous state and actions spaces and a Gaussian policy -- common in computer animation and robotics -- PPO is prone to getting stuck in local optima. In this paper, we observe a tendency of PPO to prematurely shrink the exploration variance, which naturally leads to slow progress. Motivated by this, we borrow ideas from CMA-ES, a black-box optimization method designed for intelligent adaptive Gaussian exploration, to derive PPO-CMA, a novel proximal policy optimization approach that can expand the exploration variance on objective function slopes and shrink the variance when close to the optimum. This is implemented by using separate neural networks for policy mean and variance and training the mean and variance in separate passes. Our experiments demonstrate a clear improvement over vanilla PPO in many difficult OpenAI Gym MuJoCo tasks.

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) has become a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference. These methods are based on sampling a discrete-time approximation to a continuous time process, such as the Langevin diffusion. When applied to distributions defined on a constrained space, such as the simplex, the time-discretisation error can dominate when we are near the boundary of the space. We demonstrate that while current SGMCMC methods for the simplex perform well in certain cases, they struggle with sparse simplex spaces; when many of the components are close to zero. However, most popular large-scale applications of Bayesian inference on simplex spaces, such as network or topic models, are sparse. We argue that this poor performance is due to the biases of SGMCMC caused by the discretization error. To get around this, we propose the stochastic CIR process, which removes all discretization error and we prove that samples from the stochastic CIR process are asymptotically unbiased. Use of the stochastic CIR process within a SGMCMC algorithm is shown to give substantially better performance for a topic model and a Dirichlet process mixture model than existing SGMCMC approaches.

We propose a new method of estimation in topic models, that is not a variation on the existing simplex finding algorithms, and that estimates the number of topics K from the observed data. We derive new finite sample minimax lower bounds for the estimation of A, as well as new upper bounds for our proposed estimator. We describe the scenarios where our estimator is minimax adaptive. Our finite sample analysis is valid for any number of documents (n), individual document length (N_i), dictionary size (p) and number of topics (K), and both p and K are allowed to increase with n, a situation not handled well by previous analyses. We complement our theoretical results with a detailed simulation study. We illustrate that the new algorithm is faster and more accurate than the current ones, although we start out with a computational and theoretical disadvantage of not knowing the correct number of topics K, while we provide the competing methods with the correct value in our simulations.

We discuss problems with the standard approaches to evaluation for tasks like visual question answering, and argue that artificial data can be used to address these as a complement to current practice. We demonstrate that with the help of existing 'deep' linguistic processing technology we are able to create challenging abstract datasets, which enable us to investigate the language understanding abilities of multimodal deep learning models in detail, as compared to a single performance value on a static and monolithic dataset.

We demonstrate that many detection methods are designed to identify only a sufficently accurate bounding box, rather than the best available one. To address this issue we propose a simple and fast modification to the existing methods called Fitness NMS. This method is tested with the DeNet model and obtains a significantly improved MAP at greater localization accuracies without a loss in evaluation rate. Next we derive a novel bounding box regression loss based on a set of IoU upper bounds that better matches the goal of IoU maximization while still providing good convergence properties. Following these novelties we investigate RoI clustering schemes for improving evaluation rates for the DeNet \textit{wide} model variants and provide an analysis of localization performance at various input image dimensions. We obtain a MAP[0.5:0.95] of 33.6\%@79Hz and 41.8\%@5Hz for MSCOCO and a Titan X (Maxwell).