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We study regression discontinuity designs in which many covariates, possibly much more than the number of observations, are available. We consider a two-step algorithm which first selects the set of covariates to be used through a localized Lasso-type procedure, and then, in a second step, estimates the treatment effect by including the selected covariates into the usual local linear estimator. We provide an in-depth analysis of the algorithm's theoretical properties, showing that, under an approximate sparsity condition, the resulting estimator is asymptotically normal, with asymptotic bias and variance that are conceptually similar to those obtained in low-dimensional settings. Bandwidth selection and inference can be carried out using standard methods. We also provide simulations and an empirical application.

Existing high-dimensional statistical methods are largely established for analyzing individual-level data. In this work, we study estimation and inference for high-dimensional linear models where we only observe "proxy data", which include the marginal statistics and sample covariance matrix that are computed based on different sets of individuals. We develop a rate optimal method for estimation and inference for the regression coefficient vector and its linear functionals based on the proxy data. Moreover, we show the intrinsic limitations in the proxy-data based inference: the minimax optimal rate for estimation is slower than that in the conventional case where individual data are observed; the power for testing and multiple testing does not go to one as the signal strength goes to infinity. These interesting findings are illustrated through simulation studies and an analysis of a dataset concerning the genetic associations of hindlimb muscle weight in a mouse population.

The notion of exchangeability has been recognized in the causal inference literature in various guises, but only rarely in the original meaning as a symmetry property of probability distributions. Since the latter is a standard ingredient in Bayesian inference, we argue that in Bayesian causal inference it is natural to link the causal model, including the notion of confounding and definition of causal contrasts of interest, to the concept of exchangeability. Here we propose a probabilistic between-group exchangeability property as an identifying condition for causal effects, relate it to alternative conditions for unconfounded inferences, commonly stated using potential outcomes, and define causal contrasts in the presence of exchangeability in terms of posterior predictive expectations for further exchangeable units. While our main focus is in a point treatment setting, we also investigate how this reasoning carries over to longitudinal settings.

Regression methods for interval-valued data have been increasingly studied in recent years. As most of the existing works focus on linear models, it is important to note that many problems in practice are nonlinear in nature and therefore development of nonlinear regression tools for interval-valued data is crucial. In this paper, we propose a tree-based regression method for interval-valued data, which is well applicable to both linear and nonlinear problems. Unlike linear regression models that usually require additional constraints to ensure positivity of the predicted interval length, the proposed method estimates the regression function in a nonparametric way, so the predicted length is naturally positive without any constraints. A simulation study is conducted that compares our method to popular existing regression models for interval-valued data under both linear and nonlinear settings. Furthermore, a real data example is presented where we apply our method to analyze price range data of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index and its component stocks.

The stochastic dynamic matching problem has recently drawn attention in the stochastic-modeling community due to its numerous applications, ranging from supply-chain management to kidney exchange programs. In this paper, we consider a matching problem in which items of different classes arrive according to independent Poisson processes. Unmatched items are stored in a queue, and compatibility constraints are described by a simple graph on the classes, so that two items can be matched if their classes are neighbors in the graph. We analyze the efficiency of matching policies, not only in terms of system stability, but also in terms of matching rates between different classes. Our results rely on the observation that, under any stable policy, the matching rates satisfy a conservation equation that equates the arrival and departure rates of each item class. Our main contributions are threefold. We first introduce a mapping between the dimension of the solution set of this conservation equation, the structure of the compatibility graph, and the existence of a stable policy. In particular, this allows us to derive a necessary and sufficient stability condition that is verifiable in polynomial time. Secondly, we describe the convex polytope of non-negative solutions of the conservation equation. When this polytope is reduced to a single point, we give a closed-form expression of the solution; in general, we characterize the vertices of this polytope using again the graph structure. Lastly, we show that greedy policies cannot, in general, achieve every point in the polytope. In contrast, non-greedy policies can reach any point of the interior of this polytope, and we give a condition for these policies to also reach the boundary of the polytope.

Adaptive approaches, allowing for more flexible trial design, have been proposed for individually randomized trials to save time or reduce sample size. However, adaptive designs for cluster-randomized trials in which groups of participants rather than individuals are randomized to treatment arms are less common. Motivated by a cluster-randomized trial designed to assess the effectiveness of a machine-learning based clinical decision support system for physicians treating patients with depression, two Bayesian adaptive designs for cluster-randomized trials are proposed to allow for early stopping for efficacy at pre-planned interim analyses. The difference between the two designs lies in the way that participants are sequentially recruited. Given a maximum number of clusters as well as maximum cluster size allowed in the trial, one design sequentially recruits clusters with the given maximum cluster size, while the other recruits all clusters at the beginning of the trial but sequentially enrolls individual participants until the trial is stopped early for efficacy or the final analysis has been reached. The design operating characteristics are explored via simulations for a variety of scenarios and two outcome types for the two designs. The simulation results show that for different outcomes the design choice may be different. We make recommendations for designs of Bayesian adaptive cluster-randomized trial based on the simulation results.

Although Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have shown incredible performance in perceptive and control tasks, several trustworthy issues are still open. One of the most discussed topics is the existence of adversarial perturbations, which has opened an interesting research line on provable techniques capable of quantifying the robustness of a given input. In this regard, the Euclidean distance of the input from the classification boundary denotes a well-proved robustness assessment as the minimal affordable adversarial perturbation. Unfortunately, computing such a distance is highly complex due the non-convex nature of NNs. Despite several methods have been proposed to address this issue, to the best of our knowledge, no provable results have been presented to estimate and bound the error committed. This paper addresses this issue by proposing two lightweight strategies to find the minimal adversarial perturbation. Differently from the state-of-the-art, the proposed approach allows formulating an error estimation theory of the approximate distance with respect to the theoretical one. Finally, a substantial set of experiments is reported to evaluate the performance of the algorithms and support the theoretical findings. The obtained results show that the proposed strategies approximate the theoretical distance for samples close to the classification boundary, leading to provable robustness guarantees against any adversarial attacks.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

In this work, we consider the distributed optimization of non-smooth convex functions using a network of computing units. We investigate this problem under two regularity assumptions: (1) the Lipschitz continuity of the global objective function, and (2) the Lipschitz continuity of local individual functions. Under the local regularity assumption, we provide the first optimal first-order decentralized algorithm called multi-step primal-dual (MSPD) and its corresponding optimal convergence rate. A notable aspect of this result is that, for non-smooth functions, while the dominant term of the error is in $O(1/\sqrt{t})$, the structure of the communication network only impacts a second-order term in $O(1/t)$, where $t$ is time. In other words, the error due to limits in communication resources decreases at a fast rate even in the case of non-strongly-convex objective functions. Under the global regularity assumption, we provide a simple yet efficient algorithm called distributed randomized smoothing (DRS) based on a local smoothing of the objective function, and show that DRS is within a $d^{1/4}$ multiplicative factor of the optimal convergence rate, where $d$ is the underlying dimension.

In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.