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Rough path theory provides one with the notion of signature, a graded family of tensors which characterise, up to a negligible equivalence class, and ordered stream of vector-valued data. In the last few years, use of the signature has gained traction in time-series analysis, machine learning , deep learning and more recently in kernel methods. In this article, we lay down the theoretical foundations for a connection between signature asymptotics, the theory of empirical processes, and Wasserstein distances, opening up the landscape and toolkit of the second and third in the study of the first. Our main contribution is to show that the Hambly-Lyons limit can be reinterpreted as a statement about the asymptotic behaviour of Wasserstein distances between two independent empirical measures of samples from the same underlying distribution. In the setting studied here, these measures are derived from samples from a probability distribution which is determined by geometrical properties of the underlying path. The general question of rates of convergence for these objects has been studied in depth in the recent monograph of Bobkov and Ledoux. By using these results, we generalise the original result of Hambly and Lyons from $C^3$ curves to a broad class of $C^2$ ones. We conclude by providing an explicit way to compute the limit in terms of a second-order differential equation.

Discrete and especially binary random variables occur in many machine learning models, notably in variational autoencoders with binary latent states and in stochastic binary networks. When learning such models, a key tool is an estimator of the gradient of the expected loss with respect to the probabilities of binary variables. The straight-through (ST) estimator gained popularity due to its simplicity and efficiency, in particular in deep networks where unbiased estimators are impractical. Several techniques were proposed to improve over ST while keeping the same low computational complexity: Gumbel-Softmax, ST-Gumbel-Softmax, BayesBiNN, FouST. We conduct a theoretical analysis of bias and variance of these methods in order to understand tradeoffs and verify the originally claimed properties. The presented theoretical results allow for better understanding of these methods and in some cases reveal serious issues.

Thanks to their ability to capture complex dependence structures, copulas are frequently used to glue random variables into a joint model with arbitrary marginal distributions. More recently, they have been applied to solve statistical learning problems such as regression or classification. Framing such approaches as solutions of estimating equations, we generalize them in a unified framework. We can then obtain simultaneous, coherent inferences across multiple regression-like problems. We derive consistency, asymptotic normality, and validity of the bootstrap for corresponding estimators. The conditions allow for both continuous and discrete data as well as parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric estimators of the copula and marginal distributions. The versatility of this methodology is illustrated by several theoretical examples, a simulation study, and an application to financial portfolio allocation.

The matrix normal model, the family of Gaussian matrix-variate distributions whose covariance matrix is the Kronecker product of two lower dimensional factors, is frequently used to model matrix-variate data. The tensor normal model generalizes this family to Kronecker products of three or more factors. We study the estimation of the Kronecker factors of the covariance matrix in the matrix and tensor models. We show nonasymptotic bounds for the error achieved by the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in several natural metrics. In contrast to existing bounds, our results do not rely on the factors being well-conditioned or sparse. For the matrix normal model, all our bounds are minimax optimal up to logarithmic factors, and for the tensor normal model our bound for the largest factor and overall covariance matrix are minimax optimal up to constant factors provided there are enough samples for any estimator to obtain constant Frobenius error. In the same regimes as our sample complexity bounds, we show that an iterative procedure to compute the MLE known as the flip-flop algorithm converges linearly with high probability. Our main tool is geodesic strong convexity in the geometry on positive-definite matrices induced by the Fisher information metric. This strong convexity is determined by the expansion of certain random quantum channels. We also provide numerical evidence that combining the flip-flop algorithm with a simple shrinkage estimator can improve performance in the undersampled regime.

We introduce a kernel estimator, to the tail index of a right-censored Pareto-type distribution, that generalizes Worms's one (Worms and Worms, 2014)in terms of weight coefficients. Under some regularity conditions, the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established. In the framework of the second-order condition, we derive an asymptotically bias-reduced version to the new estimator. Through a simulation study, we conclude that one of the main features of the proposed kernel estimator is its smoothness contrary to Worms's one, which behaves, rather erratically, as a function of the number of largest extreme values. As expected, the bias significantly decreases compared to that of the non-smoothed estimator with however a slight increase in the mean squared error.

We consider a mesh-based approach for training a neural network to produce field predictions of solutions to parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). This approach contrasts current approaches for "neural PDE solvers" that employ collocation-based methods to make point-wise predictions of solutions to PDEs. This approach has the advantage of naturally enforcing different boundary conditions as well as ease of invoking well-developed PDE theory -- including analysis of numerical stability and convergence -- to obtain capacity bounds for our proposed neural networks in discretized domains. We explore our mesh-based strategy, called NeuFENet, using a weighted Galerkin loss function based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) on a parametric elliptic PDE. The weighted Galerkin loss (FEM loss) is similar to an energy functional that produces improved solutions, satisfies a priori mesh convergence, and can model Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions. We prove theoretically, and illustrate with experiments, convergence results analogous to mesh convergence analysis deployed in finite element solutions to PDEs. These results suggest that a mesh-based neural network approach serves as a promising approach for solving parametric PDEs with theoretical bounds.

We investigate the computational performance of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in semi-nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) models of high dimensional covariates that are relevant to empirical work in economics. We focus on efficient estimation of and inference on expectation functionals (such as weighted average derivatives) and use optimal criterion-based procedures (sieve minimum distance or SMD) and novel efficient score-based procedures (ES). Both these procedures use ANN to approximate the unknown function. Then, we provide a detailed practitioner's recipe for implementing these two classes of estimators. This involves the choice of tuning parameters both for the unknown functions (that include conditional expectations) but also for the choice of estimation of the optimal weights in SMD and the Riesz representers used with the ES estimators. Finally, we conduct a large set of Monte Carlo experiments that compares the finite-sample performance in complicated designs that involve a large set of regressors (up to 13 continuous), and various underlying nonlinearities and covariate correlations. Some of the takeaways from our results include: 1) tuning and optimization are delicate especially as the problem is nonconvex; 2) various architectures of the ANNs do not seem to matter for the designs we consider and given proper tuning, ANN methods perform well; 3) stable inferences are more difficult to achieve with ANN estimators; 4) optimal SMD based estimators perform adequately; 5) there seems to be a gap between implementation and approximation theory. Finally, we apply ANN NPIV to estimate average price elasticity and average derivatives in two demand examples.

This paper studies the $\tau$-coherence of a (n x p)-observation matrix in a Gaussian framework. The $\tau$-coherence is defined as the largest magnitude outside a diagonal bandwith of size $\tau$ of the empirical correlation coefficients associated to our observations. Using the Chen-Stein method we derive the limiting law of the normalized coherence and show the convergence towards a Gumbel distribution. We generalize here the results of Cai and Jiang [CJ11a]. We assume that the covariance matrix of the model is bandwise. Moreover, we provide numerical considerations highlighting issues from the high dimension hypotheses. We numerically illustrate the asymptotic behaviour of the coherence with Monte-Carlo experiment using a HPC splitting strategy for high dimensional correlation matrices.

It is a well-known fact that nonconvex optimization is computationally intractable in the worst case. As a result, theoretical analysis of optimization algorithms such as gradient descent often focuses on local convergence to stationary points where the gradient norm is zero or negligible. In this work, we examine the disconnect between the existing theoretical analysis of gradient-based algorithms and actual practice. Specifically, we provide numerical evidence that in large-scale neural network training, such as in ImageNet, ResNet, and WT103 + TransformerXL models, the Neural Network weight variables do not converge to stationary points where the gradient of the loss function vanishes. Remarkably, however, we observe that while weights do not converge to stationary points, the value of the loss function converges. Inspired by this observation, we propose a new perspective based on ergodic theory of dynamical systems. We prove convergence of the distribution of weight values to an approximate invariant measure (without smoothness assumptions) that explains this phenomenon. We further discuss how this perspective can better align the theory with empirical observations.

We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empirical likelihood, and we provide a number of finite-sample and asymptotic results characterizing the theoretical performance of the estimator. In particular, we show that our procedure comes with certificates of optimality, achieving (in some scenarios) faster rates of convergence than empirical risk minimization by virtue of automatically balancing bias and variance. We give corroborating empirical evidence showing that in practice, the estimator indeed trades between variance and absolute performance on a training sample, improving out-of-sample (test) performance over standard empirical risk minimization for a number of classification problems.