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Uncertainty sampling is a prevalent active learning algorithm that queries sequentially the annotations of data samples which the current prediction model is uncertain about. However, the usage of uncertainty sampling has been largely heuristic: (i) There is no consensus on the proper definition of "uncertainty" for a specific task under a specific loss; (ii) There is no theoretical guarantee that prescribes a standard protocol to implement the algorithm, for example, how to handle the sequentially arrived annotated data under the framework of optimization algorithms such as stochastic gradient descent. In this work, we systematically examine uncertainty sampling algorithms under both stream-based and pool-based active learning. We propose a notion of equivalent loss which depends on the used uncertainty measure and the original loss function and establish that an uncertainty sampling algorithm essentially optimizes against such an equivalent loss. The perspective verifies the properness of existing uncertainty measures from two aspects: surrogate property and loss convexity. Furthermore, we propose a new notion for designing uncertainty measures called \textit{loss as uncertainty}. The idea is to use the conditional expected loss given the features as the uncertainty measure. Such an uncertainty measure has nice analytical properties and generality to cover both classification and regression problems, which enable us to provide the first generalization bound for uncertainty sampling algorithms under both stream-based and pool-based settings, in the full generality of the underlying model and problem. Lastly, we establish connections between certain variants of the uncertainty sampling algorithms with risk-sensitive objectives and distributional robustness, which can partly explain the advantage of uncertainty sampling algorithms when the sample size is small.

Uncertainty quantification is an essential task in machine learning - a task in which neural networks (NNs) have traditionally not excelled. This can be a limitation for safety-critical applications, where uncertainty-aware methods like Gaussian processes or Bayesian linear regression are often preferred. Bayesian neural networks are an approach to address this limitation. They assume probability distributions for all parameters and yield distributed predictions. However, training and inference are typically intractable and approximations must be employed. A promising approximation is NNs with Bayesian last layer (BLL). They assume distributed weights only in the last linear layer and yield a normally distributed prediction. NNs with BLL can be seen as a Bayesian linear regression model with learned nonlinear features. To approximate the intractable Bayesian neural network, point estimates of the distributed weights in all but the last layer should be obtained by maximizing the marginal likelihood. This has previously been challenging, as the marginal likelihood is expensive to evaluate in this setting and prohibits direct training through backpropagation. We present a reformulation of the log-marginal likelihood of a NN with BLL which allows for efficient training using backpropagation. Furthermore, we address the challenge of quantifying uncertainty for extrapolation points. We provide a metric to quantify the degree of extrapolation and derive a method to improve the uncertainty quantification for these points. Our methods are derived for the multivariate case and demonstrated in a simulation study, where we compare Bayesian linear regression applied to a previously trained neural network with our proposed algorithm

Precise measurements of the black hole mass are essential to gain insight on the black hole and host galaxy co-evolution. A direct measure of the black hole mass is often restricted to nearest galaxies and instead, an indirect method using the single-epoch virial black hole mass estimation is used for objects at high redshifts. However, this method is subjected to biases and uncertainties as it is reliant on the scaling relation from a small sample of local active galactic nuclei. In this study, we propose the application of conformalised quantile regression (CQR) to quantify the uncertainties of the black hole predictions in a machine learning setting. We compare CQR with various prediction interval techniques and demonstrated that CQR can provide a more useful prediction interval indicator. In contrast to baseline approaches for prediction interval estimation, we show that the CQR method provides prediction intervals that adjust to the black hole mass and its related properties. That is it yields a tighter constraint on the prediction interval (hence more certain) for a larger black hole mass, and accordingly, bright and broad spectral line width source. Using a combination of neural network model and CQR framework, the recovered virial black hole mass predictions and uncertainties are comparable to those measured from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The code is publicly available at //github.com/yongsukyee/uncertain_blackholemass.

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.

Deep neural networks have revolutionized many machine learning tasks in power systems, ranging from pattern recognition to signal processing. The data in these tasks is typically represented in Euclidean domains. Nevertheless, there is an increasing number of applications in power systems, where data are collected from non-Euclidean domains and represented as the graph-structured data with high dimensional features and interdependency among nodes. The complexity of graph-structured data has brought significant challenges to the existing deep neural networks defined in Euclidean domains. Recently, many studies on extending deep neural networks for graph-structured data in power systems have emerged. In this paper, a comprehensive overview of graph neural networks (GNNs) in power systems is proposed. Specifically, several classical paradigms of GNNs structures (e.g., graph convolutional networks, graph recurrent neural networks, graph attention networks, graph generative networks, spatial-temporal graph convolutional networks, and hybrid forms of GNNs) are summarized, and key applications in power systems such as fault diagnosis, power prediction, power flow calculation, and data generation are reviewed in detail. Furthermore, main issues and some research trends about the applications of GNNs in power systems are discussed.

Ensembles over neural network weights trained from different random initialization, known as deep ensembles, achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and calibration. The recently introduced batch ensembles provide a drop-in replacement that is more parameter efficient. In this paper, we design ensembles not only over weights, but over hyperparameters to improve the state of the art in both settings. For best performance independent of budget, we propose hyper-deep ensembles, a simple procedure that involves a random search over different hyperparameters, themselves stratified across multiple random initializations. Its strong performance highlights the benefit of combining models with both weight and hyperparameter diversity. We further propose a parameter efficient version, hyper-batch ensembles, which builds on the layer structure of batch ensembles and self-tuning networks. The computational and memory costs of our method are notably lower than typical ensembles. On image classification tasks, with MLP, LeNet, and Wide ResNet 28-10 architectures, our methodology improves upon both deep and batch ensembles.

Deep learning methods for graphs achieve remarkable performance on many node-level and graph-level prediction tasks. However, despite the proliferation of the methods and their success, prevailing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) neglect subgraphs, rendering subgraph prediction tasks challenging to tackle in many impactful applications. Further, subgraph prediction tasks present several unique challenges, because subgraphs can have non-trivial internal topology, but also carry a notion of position and external connectivity information relative to the underlying graph in which they exist. Here, we introduce SUB-GNN, a subgraph neural network to learn disentangled subgraph representations. In particular, we propose a novel subgraph routing mechanism that propagates neural messages between the subgraph's components and randomly sampled anchor patches from the underlying graph, yielding highly accurate subgraph representations. SUB-GNN specifies three channels, each designed to capture a distinct aspect of subgraph structure, and we provide empirical evidence that the channels encode their intended properties. We design a series of new synthetic and real-world subgraph datasets. Empirical results for subgraph classification on eight datasets show that SUB-GNN achieves considerable performance gains, outperforming strong baseline methods, including node-level and graph-level GNNs, by 12.4% over the strongest baseline. SUB-GNN performs exceptionally well on challenging biomedical datasets when subgraphs have complex topology and even comprise multiple disconnected components.

Knowledge graphs capture interlinked information between entities and they represent an attractive source of structured information that can be harnessed for recommender systems. However, existing recommender engines use knowledge graphs by manually designing features, do not allow for end-to-end training, or provide poor scalability. Here we propose Knowledge Graph Convolutional Networks (KGCN), an end-to-end trainable framework that harnesses item relationships captured by the knowledge graph to provide better recommendations. Conceptually, KGCN computes user-specific item embeddings by first applying a trainable function that identifies important knowledge graph relations for a given user and then transforming the knowledge graph into a user-specific weighted graph. Then, KGCN applies a graph convolutional neural network that computes an embedding of an item node by propagating and aggregating knowledge graph neighborhood information. Moreover, to provide better inductive bias KGCN uses label smoothness (LS), which provides regularization over edge weights and we prove that it is equivalent to label propagation scheme on a graph. Finally, We unify KGCN and LS regularization, and present a scalable minibatch implementation for KGCN-LS model. Experiments show that KGCN-LS outperforms strong baselines in four datasets. KGCN-LS also achieves great performance in sparse scenarios and is highly scalable with respect to the knowledge graph size.

Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.

Traditional methods for link prediction can be categorized into three main types: graph structure feature-based, latent feature-based, and explicit feature-based. Graph structure feature methods leverage some handcrafted node proximity scores, e.g., common neighbors, to estimate the likelihood of links. Latent feature methods rely on factorizing networks' matrix representations to learn an embedding for each node. Explicit feature methods train a machine learning model on two nodes' explicit attributes. Each of the three types of methods has its unique merits. In this paper, we propose SEAL (learning from Subgraphs, Embeddings, and Attributes for Link prediction), a new framework for link prediction which combines the power of all the three types into a single graph neural network (GNN). GNN is a new type of neural network which directly accepts graphs as input and outputs their labels. In SEAL, the input to the GNN is a local subgraph around each target link. We prove theoretically that our local subgraphs also reserve a great deal of high-order graph structure features related to link existence. Another key feature is that our GNN can naturally incorporate latent features and explicit features. It is achieved by concatenating node embeddings (latent features) and node attributes (explicit features) in the node information matrix for each subgraph, thus combining the three types of features to enhance GNN learning. Through extensive experiments, SEAL shows unprecedentedly strong performance against a wide range of baseline methods, including various link prediction heuristics and network embedding methods.