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Inferential models (IMs) offer reliable, data-driven, possibilistic statistical inference. But despite IMs' theoretical/foundational advantages, efficient computation in applications is a major challenge. This paper presents a simple and apparently powerful Monte Carlo-driven strategy for approximating the IM's possibility contour, or at least its $\alpha$-level set for a specified $\alpha$. Our proposal utilizes a parametric family that, in a certain sense, approximately covers the credal set associated with the IM's possibility measure, which is reminiscent of variational approximations now widely used in Bayesian statistics.

Realizing computationally complex quantum circuits in the presence of noise and imperfections is a challenging task. While fault-tolerant quantum computing provides a route to reducing noise, it requires a large overhead for generic algorithms. Here, we develop and analyze a hardware-efficient, fault-tolerant approach to realizing complex sampling circuits. We co-design the circuits with the appropriate quantum error correcting codes for efficient implementation in a reconfigurable neutral atom array architecture, constituting what we call a fault-tolerant compilation of the sampling algorithm. Specifically, we consider a family of $[[2^D , D, 2]]$ quantum error detecting codes whose transversal and permutation gate set can realize arbitrary degree-$D$ instantaneous quantum polynomial (IQP) circuits. Using native operations of the code and the atom array hardware, we compile a fault-tolerant and fast-scrambling family of such IQP circuits in a hypercube geometry, realized recently in the experiments by Bluvstein et al. [Nature 626, 7997 (2024)]. We develop a theory of second-moment properties of degree-$D$ IQP circuits for analyzing hardness and verification of random sampling by mapping to a statistical mechanics model. We provide evidence that sampling from hypercube IQP circuits is classically hard to simulate and analyze the linear cross-entropy benchmark (XEB) in comparison to the average fidelity. To realize a fully scalable approach, we first show that Bell sampling from degree-$4$ IQP circuits is classically intractable and can be efficiently validated. We further devise new families of $[[O(d^D),D,d]]$ color codes of increasing distance $d$, permitting exponential error suppression for transversal IQP sampling. Our results highlight fault-tolerant compiling as a powerful tool in co-designing algorithms with specific error-correcting codes and realistic hardware.

Recent work has demonstrated the utility of introducing non-linearity through repeat-until-success (RUS) sub-routines into quantum circuits for generative modeling. As a follow-up to this work, we investigate two questions of relevance to the quantum algorithms and machine learning communities: Does introducing this form of non-linearity make the learning model classically simulatable due to the deferred measurement principle? And does introducing this form of non-linearity make the overall model's training more unstable? With respect to the first question, we demonstrate that the RUS sub-routines do not allow us to trivially map this quantum model to a classical one, whereas a model without RUS sub-circuits containing mid-circuit measurements could be mapped to a classical Bayesian network due to the deferred measurement principle of quantum mechanics. This strongly suggests that the proposed form of non-linearity makes the model classically in-efficient to simulate. In the pursuit of the second question, we train larger models than previously shown on three different probability distributions, one continuous and two discrete, and compare the training performance across multiple random trials. We see that while the model is able to perform exceptionally well in some trials, the variance across trials with certain datasets quantifies its relatively poor training stability.

Unveiling the underlying governing equations of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a significant challenge. Insufficient prior knowledge hinders the determination of an accurate candidate library, while noisy observations lead to imprecise evaluations, which in turn result in redundant function terms or erroneous equations. This study proposes a framework to robustly uncover open-form partial differential equations (PDEs) from limited and noisy data. The framework operates through two alternating update processes: discovering and embedding. The discovering phase employs symbolic representation and a novel reinforcement learning (RL)-guided hybrid PDE generator to efficiently produce diverse open-form PDEs with tree structures. A neural network-based predictive model fits the system response and serves as the reward evaluator for the generated PDEs. PDEs with higher rewards are utilized to iteratively optimize the generator via the RL strategy and the best-performing PDE is selected by a parameter-free stability metric. The embedding phase integrates the initially identified PDE from the discovering process as a physical constraint into the predictive model for robust training. The traversal of PDE trees automates the construction of the computational graph and the embedding process without human intervention. Numerical experiments demonstrate our framework's capability to uncover governing equations from nonlinear dynamic systems with limited and highly noisy data and outperform other physics-informed neural network-based discovery methods. This work opens new potential for exploring real-world systems with limited understanding.

We propose a comprehensive framework for policy gradient methods tailored to continuous time reinforcement learning. This is based on the connection between stochastic control problems and randomised problems, enabling applications across various classes of Markovian continuous time control problems, beyond diffusion models, including e.g. regular, impulse and optimal stopping/switching problems. By utilizing change of measure in the control randomisation technique, we derive a new policy gradient representation for these randomised problems, featuring parametrised intensity policies. We further develop actor-critic algorithms specifically designed to address general Markovian stochastic control issues. Our framework is demonstrated through its application to optimal switching problems, with two numerical case studies in the energy sector focusing on real options.

Quantum hypothesis testing (QHT) has been traditionally studied from the information-theoretic perspective, wherein one is interested in the optimal decay rate of error probabilities as a function of the number of samples of an unknown state. In this paper, we study the sample complexity of QHT, wherein the goal is to determine the minimum number of samples needed to reach a desired error probability. By making use of the wealth of knowledge that already exists in the literature on QHT, we characterize the sample complexity of binary QHT in the symmetric and asymmetric settings, and we provide bounds on the sample complexity of multiple QHT. In more detail, we prove that the sample complexity of symmetric binary QHT depends logarithmically on the inverse error probability and inversely on the negative logarithm of the fidelity. As a counterpart of the quantum Stein's lemma, we also find that the sample complexity of asymmetric binary QHT depends logarithmically on the inverse type II error probability and inversely on the quantum relative entropy. We then provide lower and upper bounds on the sample complexity of multiple QHT, with it remaining an intriguing open question to improve these bounds. The final part of our paper outlines and reviews how sample complexity of QHT is relevant to a broad swathe of research areas and can enhance understanding of many fundamental concepts, including quantum algorithms for simulation and search, quantum learning and classification, and foundations of quantum mechanics. As such, we view our paper as an invitation to researchers coming from different communities to study and contribute to the problem of sample complexity of QHT, and we outline a number of open directions for future research.

Logistic regression is widely used in many areas of knowledge. Several works compare the performance of lasso and maximum likelihood estimation in logistic regression. However, part of these works do not perform simulation studies and the remaining ones do not consider scenarios in which the ratio of the number of covariates to sample size is high. In this work, we compare the discrimination performance of lasso and maximum likelihood estimation in logistic regression using simulation studies and applications. Variable selection is done both by lasso and by stepwise when maximum likelihood estimation is used. We consider a wide range of values for the ratio of the number of covariates to sample size. The main conclusion of the work is that lasso has a better discrimination performance than maximum likelihood estimation when the ratio of the number of covariates to sample size is high.

Correspondence analysis (CA) is a popular technique to visualize the relationship between two categorical variables. CA uses the data from a two-way contingency table and is affected by the presence of outliers. The supplementary points method is a popular method to handle outliers. Its disadvantage is that the information from entire rows or columns is removed. However, outliers can be caused by cells only. In this paper, a reconstitution algorithm is introduced to cope with such cells. This algorithm can reduce the contribution of cells in CA instead of deleting entire rows or columns. Thus the remaining information in the row and column involved can be used in the analysis. The reconstitution algorithm is compared with two alternative methods for handling outliers, the supplementary points method and MacroPCA. It is shown that the proposed strategy works well.

We consider covariance parameter estimation for Gaussian processes with functional inputs. From an increasing-domain asymptotics perspective, we prove the asymptotic consistency and normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. We extend these theoretical guarantees to encompass scenarios accounting for approximation errors in the inputs, which allows robustness of practical implementations relying on conventional sampling methods or projections onto a functional basis. Loosely speaking, both consistency and normality hold when the approximation error becomes negligible, a condition that is often achieved as the number of samples or basis functions becomes large. These later asymptotic properties are illustrated through analytical examples, including one that covers the case of non-randomly perturbed grids, as well as several numerical illustrations.

The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.