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Nowadays, numerical models are widely used in most of engineering fields to simulate the behaviour of complex systems, such as for example power plants or wind turbine in the energy sector. Those models are nevertheless affected by uncertainty of different nature (numerical, epistemic) which can affect the reliability of their predictions. We develop here a new method for quantifying conditional parameter uncertainty within a chain of two numerical models in the context of multiphysics simulation. More precisely, we aim to calibrate the parameters $\theta$ of the second model of the chain conditionally on the value of parameters $\lambda$ of the first model, while assuming the probability distribution of $\lambda$ is known. This conditional calibration is carried out from the available experimental data of the second model. In doing so, we aim to quantify as well as possible the impact of the uncertainty of $\lambda$ on the uncertainty of $\theta$. To perform this conditional calibration, we set out a nonparametric Bayesian formalism to estimate the functional dependence between $\theta$ and $\lambda$, denoted $\theta(\lambda)$. First, each component of $\theta(\lambda)$ is assumed to be the realization of a Gaussian process prior. Then, if the second model is written as a linear function of $\theta(\lambda)$, the Bayesian machinery allows us to compute analytically the posterior predictive distribution of $\theta(\lambda)$ for any set of realizations $\lambda$. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated on several analytical examples.

The statistical analysis of univariate quantiles is a well developed research topic. However, there is a need for research in multivariate quantiles. We construct bivariate (conditional) quantiles using the level curves of vine copula based bivariate regression model. Vine copulas are graph theoretical models identified by a sequence of linked trees, which allow for separate modelling of marginal distributions and the dependence structure. We introduce a novel graph structure model (given by a tree sequence) specifically designed for a symmetric treatment of two responses in a predictive regression setting. We establish computational tractability of the model and a straight forward way of obtaining different conditional distributions. Using vine copulas the typical shortfalls of regression, as the need for transformations or interactions of predictors, collinearity or quantile crossings are avoided. We illustrate the copula based bivariate level curves for different copula distributions and show how they can be adjusted to form valid quantile curves. We apply our approach to weather measurements from Seoul, Korea. This data example emphasizes the benefits of the joint bivariate response modelling in contrast to two separate univariate regressions or by assuming conditional independence, for bivariate response data set in the presence of conditional dependence.

We consider the problem of inference for projection parameters in linear regression with increasing dimensions. This problem has been studied under a variety of assumptions in the literature. The classical asymptotic normality result for the least squares estimator of the projection parameter only holds when the dimension $d$ of the covariates is of smaller order than $n^{1/2}$, where $n$ is the sample size. Traditional sandwich estimator-based Wald intervals are asymptotically valid in this regime. In this work, we propose a bias correction for the least squares estimator and prove the asymptotic normality of the resulting debiased estimator as long as $d = o(n^{2/3})$, with an explicit bound on the rate of convergence to normality. We leverage recent methods of statistical inference that do not require an estimator of the variance to perform asymptotically valid statistical inference. We provide a discussion of how our techniques can be generalized to increase the allowable range of $d$ even further.

Rank-based approaches are among the most popular nonparametric methods for univariate data in tackling statistical problems such as hypothesis testing due to their robustness and effectiveness. However, they are unsatisfactory for more complex data. In the era of big data, high-dimensional and non-Euclidean data, such as networks and images, are ubiquitous and pose challenges for statistical analysis. Existing multivariate ranks such as component-wise, spatial, and depth-based ranks do not apply to non-Euclidean data and have limited performance for high-dimensional data. Instead of dealing with the ranks of observations, we propose two types of ranks applicable to complex data based on a similarity graph constructed on observations: a graph-induced rank defined by the inductive nature of the graph and an overall rank defined by the weight of edges in the graph. To illustrate their utilization, both the new ranks are used to construct test statistics for the two-sample hypothesis testing, which converge to the $\chi_2^2$ distribution under the permutation null distribution and some mild conditions of the ranks, enabling an easy type-I error control. Simulation studies show that the new method exhibits good power under a wide range of alternatives compared to existing methods. The new test is illustrated on the New York City taxi data for comparing travel patterns in consecutive months and a brain network dataset comparing male and female subjects.

We advance a recently flourishing line of work at the intersection of learning theory and computational economics by studying the learnability of two classes of mechanisms prominent in economics, namely menus of lotteries and two-part tariffs. The former is a family of randomized mechanisms designed for selling multiple items, known to achieve revenue beyond deterministic mechanisms, while the latter is designed for selling multiple units (copies) of a single item with applications in real-world scenarios such as car or bike-sharing services. We focus on learning high-revenue mechanisms of this form from buyer valuation data in both distributional settings, where we have access to buyers' valuation samples up-front, and the more challenging and less-studied online settings, where buyers arrive one-at-a-time and no distributional assumption is made about their values. Our main contribution is proposing the first online learning algorithms for menus of lotteries and two-part tariffs with strong regret-bound guarantees. In the general case, we provide a reduction to a finite number of experts, and in the limited buyer type case, we show a reduction to online linear optimization, which allows us to obtain no-regret guarantees by presenting buyers with menus that correspond to a barycentric spanner. In addition, we provide algorithms with improved running times over prior work for the distributional settings. The key difficulty when deriving learning algorithms for these settings is that the relevant revenue functions have sharp transition boundaries. In stark contrast with the recent literature on learning such unstructured functions, we show that simple discretization-based techniques are sufficient for learning in these settings.

We derive general bounds on the probability that the empirical first-passage time $\overline{\tau}_n\equiv \sum_{i=1}^n\tau_i/n$ of a reversible ergodic Markov process inferred from a sample of $n$ independent realizations deviates from the true mean first-passage time by more than any given amount in either direction. We construct non-asymptotic confidence intervals that hold in the elusive small-sample regime and thus fill the gap between asymptotic methods and the Bayesian approach that is known to be sensitive to prior belief and tends to underestimate uncertainty in the small-sample setting. We prove sharp bounds on extreme first-passage times that control uncertainty even in cases where the mean alone does not sufficiently characterize the statistics. Our concentration-of-measure-based results allow for model-free error control and reliable error estimation in kinetic inference, and are thus important for the analysis of experimental and simulation data in the presence of limited sampling.

Linear models are commonly used in causal inference for the analysis of experimental data. This is motivated by the ability to adjust for confounding variables and to obtain treatment effect estimators of increased precision through variance reduction. There is, however, a replicability crisis in applied research through unknown reporting of the data collection process. In modern A/B tests, there is a demand to perform regression-adjusted inference on experimental data in real-time. Linear models are a viable solution because they can be computed online over streams of data. Together, these motivate modernizing linear model theory by providing ``Anytime-Valid'' inference. These replace classical fixed-n Type I error and coverage guarantees with time-uniform guarantees, safeguarding applied researchers from p-hacking, allowing experiments to be continuously monitored and stopped using data-dependent rules. Our contributions leverage group invariance principles and modern martingale techniques. We provide sequential $t$-tests and confidence sequences for regression coefficients of a linear model, in addition to sequential $F$-tests and confidence sequences for collections of regression coefficients. With an emphasis on experimental data, we are able to relax the linear model assumption in randomized designs. In particular, we provide completely nonparametric confidence sequences for the average treatment effect in randomized experiments, without assuming linearity or Gaussianity. A particular feature of our contributions is their simplicity. Our test statistics and confidence sequences have closed-form expressions of the original classical statistics, meaning they are no harder to use in practice. This means that published results can be revisited and reevaluated, and software libraries which implement linear regression can be easily wrapped.

In this paper, we deal with nonparametric regression for circular data, meaning that observations are represented by points lying on the unit circle. We propose a kernel estimation procedure with data-driven selection of the bandwidth parameter. For this purpose, we use a warping strategy combined with a Goldenshluger-Lepski type estimator. To study optimality of our methodology, we consider the minimax setting and prove, by establishing upper and lower bounds, that our procedure is nearly optimal on anisotropic Holder classes of functions for pointwise estimation. The obtained rates also reveal the specific nature of regression for circular responses. Finally, a numerical study is conducted, illustrating the good performances of our approach.

Structural causal models (SCMs) are widely used in various disciplines to represent causal relationships among variables in complex systems. Unfortunately, the true underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure is often unknown, and determining it from observational or interventional data remains a challenging task. However, in many situations, the end goal is to identify changes (shifts) in causal mechanisms between related SCMs rather than recovering the entire underlying DAG structure. Examples include analyzing gene regulatory network structure changes between healthy and cancerous individuals or understanding variations in biological pathways under different cellular contexts. This paper focuses on identifying $\textit{functional}$ mechanism shifts in two or more related SCMs over the same set of variables -- $\textit{without estimating the entire DAG structure of each SCM}$. Prior work under this setting assumed linear models with Gaussian noises; instead, in this work we assume that each SCM belongs to the more general class of nonlinear additive noise models (ANMs). A key contribution of this work is to show that the Jacobian of the score function for the $\textit{mixture distribution}$ allows for identification of shifts in general non-parametric functional mechanisms. Once the shifted variables are identified, we leverage recent work to estimate the structural differences, if any, for the shifted variables. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data are provided to showcase the applicability of this approach.

We revisit the sample average approximation (SAA) approach for non-convex stochastic programming. We show that applying the SAA approach to problems with expected value equality constraints does not necessarily result in asymptotic optimality guarantees as the sample size increases. To address this issue, we relax the equality constraints. Then, we prove the asymptotic optimality of the modified SAA approach under mild smoothness and boundedness conditions on the equality constraint functions. Our analysis uses random set theory and concentration inequalities to characterize the approximation error from the sampling procedure. We apply our approach to the problem of stochastic optimal control for nonlinear dynamical systems subject to external disturbances modeled by a Wiener process. We verify our approach on a rocket-powered descent problem and show that our computed solutions allow for significant uncertainty reduction.