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A functional time series approach is proposed for investigating spatial correlation in daily maximum temperature forecast errors for 111 cities spread across the U.S. The modelling of spatial correlation is most fruitful for longer forecast horizons, and becomes less relevant as the forecast horizon shrinks towards zero. For 6-day-ahead forecasts, the functional approach uncovers interpretable regional spatial effects, and captures the higher variance observed in inland cities versus coastal cities, as well as the higher variance observed in mountain and midwest states. The functional approach also naturally handles missing data through modelling a continuum, and can be implemented efficiently by exploiting the sparsity induced by a B-spline basis. The temporal dependence in the data is modeled through temporal dependence in functional basis coefficients. Independent first order autoregressions with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity [AR(1)+GARCH(1,1)] and Student-t innovations work well to capture the persistence of basis coefficients over time and the seasonal heteroskedasticity reflecting higher variance in winter. Through exploiting autocorrelation in the basis coefficients, the functional time series approach also yields a method for improving weather forecasts and uncertainty quantification. The resulting method corrects for bias in the weather forecasts, while reducing the error variance.

Discrepancy measures between probability distributions are at the core of statistical inference and machine learning. In many applications, distributions of interest are supported on different spaces, and yet a meaningful correspondence between data points is desired. Motivated to explicitly encode consistent bidirectional maps into the discrepancy measure, this work proposes a novel unbalanced Monge optimal transport formulation for matching, up to isometries, distributions on different spaces. Our formulation arises as a principled relaxation of the Gromov-Haussdroff distance between metric spaces, and employs two cycle-consistent maps that push forward each distribution onto the other. We study structural properties of the proposed discrepancy and, in particular, show that it captures the popular cycle-consistent generative adversarial network (GAN) framework as a special case, thereby providing the theory to explain it. Motivated by computational efficiency, we then kernelize the discrepancy and restrict the mappings to parametric function classes. The resulting kernelized version is coined the generalized maximum mean discrepancy (GMMD). Convergence rates for empirical estimation of GMMD are studied and experiments to support our theory are provided.

In recent years, machine learning and AI have been introduced in many industrial fields. In fields such as finance, medicine, and autonomous driving, where the inference results of a model may have serious consequences, high interpretability as well as prediction accuracy is required. In this study, we propose CGA2M+, which is based on the Generalized Additive 2 Model (GA2M) and differs from it in two major ways. The first is the introduction of monotonicity. Imposing monotonicity on some functions based on an analyst's knowledge is expected to improve not only interpretability but also generalization performance. The second is the introduction of a higher-order term: given that GA2M considers only second-order interactions, we aim to balance interpretability and prediction accuracy by introducing a higher-order term that can capture higher-order interactions. In this way, we can improve prediction performance without compromising interpretability by applying learning innovation. Numerical experiments showed that the proposed model has high predictive performance and interpretability. Furthermore, we confirmed that generalization performance is improved by introducing monotonicity.

We investigate ensembling techniques in forecasting and examine their potential for use in nonseasonal time-series similar to those in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Developing improved forecast methods is essential as they provide data-driven decisions to organisations and decision-makers during critical phases. We propose using late data fusion, using a stacked ensemble of two forecasting models and two meta-features that prove their predictive power during a preliminary forecasting stage. The final ensembles include a Prophet and long short term memory (LSTM) neural network as base models. The base models are combined by a multilayer perceptron (MLP), taking into account meta-features that indicate the highest correlation with each base model's forecast accuracy. We further show that the inclusion of meta-features generally improves the ensemble's forecast accuracy across two forecast horizons of seven and fourteen days. This research reinforces previous work and demonstrates the value of combining traditional statistical models with deep learning models to produce more accurate forecast models for time-series from different domains and seasonality.

We investigate the benefits of feature selection, nonlinear modelling and online learning when forecasting in financial time series. We consider the sequential and continual learning sub-genres of online learning. The experiments we conduct show that there is a benefit to online transfer learning, beyond the sequential updating of recursive least-squares models. We show that feature representation transfer via radial basis function networks, which make use of clustering algorithms to construct a kernel Gram matrix, are more beneficial than treating each training vector as separate basis functions, as occurs with kernel Ridge regression. We also demonstrate quantitative procedures to determine the very structure of the networks. Finally, we conduct experiments on the log returns of financial time series and show that these online transfer learning models are able to outperform a random walk baseline, whereas the offline learning models struggle to do so.

Combination and aggregation techniques can significantly improve forecast accuracy. This also holds for probabilistic forecasting methods where predictive distributions are combined. There are several time-varying and adaptive weighting schemes such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA). However, the quality of different forecasts may vary not only over time but also within the distribution. For example, some distribution forecasts may be more accurate in the center of the distributions, while others are better at predicting the tails. Therefore, we introduce a new weighting method that considers the differences in performance over time and within the distribution. We discuss pointwise combination algorithms based on aggregation across quantiles that optimize with respect to the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). After analyzing the theoretical properties of pointwise CRPS learning, we discuss B- and P-Spline-based estimation techniques for batch and online learning, based on quantile regression and prediction with expert advice. We prove that the proposed fully adaptive Bernstein online aggregation (BOA) method for pointwise CRPS online learning has optimal convergence properties. They are confirmed in simulations and a probabilistic forecasting study for European emission allowance (EUA) prices.

We consider the problem of parameter estimation in slowly varying regression models with sparsity constraints. We formulate the problem as a mixed integer optimization problem and demonstrate that it can be reformulated exactly as a binary convex optimization problem through a novel exact relaxation. The relaxation utilizes a new equality on Moore-Penrose inverses that convexifies the non-convex objective function while coinciding with the original objective on all feasible binary points. This allows us to solve the problem significantly more efficiently and to provable optimality using a cutting plane-type algorithm. We develop a highly optimized implementation of such algorithm, which substantially improves upon the asymptotic computational complexity of a straightforward implementation. We further develop a heuristic method that is guaranteed to produce a feasible solution and, as we empirically illustrate, generates high quality warm-start solutions for the binary optimization problem. We show, on both synthetic and real-world datasets, that the resulting algorithm outperforms competing formulations in comparable times across a variety of metrics including out-of-sample predictive performance, support recovery accuracy, and false positive rate. The algorithm enables us to train models with 10,000s of parameters, is robust to noise, and able to effectively capture the underlying slowly changing support of the data generating process.

Despite the increasing relevance of forecasting methods, the causal implications of these algorithms remain largely unexplored. This is concerning considering that, even under simplifying assumptions such as causal sufficiency, the statistical risk of a model can differ significantly from its \textit{causal risk}. Here, we study the problem of *causal generalization* -- generalizing from the observational to interventional distributions -- in forecasting. Our goal is to find answers to the question: How does the efficacy of an autoregressive (VAR) model in predicting statistical associations compare with its ability to predict under interventions? To this end, we introduce the framework of *causal learning theory* for forecasting. Using this framework, we obtain a characterization of the difference between statistical and causal risks, which helps identify sources of divergence between them. Under causal sufficiency, the problem of causal generalization amounts to learning under covariate shifts albeit with additional structure (restriction to interventional distributions). This structure allows us to obtain uniform convergence bounds on causal generalizability for the class of VAR models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that provides theoretical guarantees for causal generalization in the time-series setting.

Spatio-temporal forecasting has numerous applications in analyzing wireless, traffic, and financial networks. Many classical statistical models often fall short in handling the complexity and high non-linearity present in time-series data. Recent advances in deep learning allow for better modelling of spatial and temporal dependencies. While most of these models focus on obtaining accurate point forecasts, they do not characterize the prediction uncertainty. In this work, we consider the time-series data as a random realization from a nonlinear state-space model and target Bayesian inference of the hidden states for probabilistic forecasting. We use particle flow as the tool for approximating the posterior distribution of the states, as it is shown to be highly effective in complex, high-dimensional settings. Thorough experimentation on several real world time-series datasets demonstrates that our approach provides better characterization of uncertainty while maintaining comparable accuracy to the state-of-the art point forecasting methods.

We consider the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning and we show that an agent imbued with a risk-seeking utility function is able to explore efficiently, as measured by regret. The parameter that controls how risk-seeking the agent is can be optimized exactly, or annealed according to a schedule. We call the resulting algorithm K-learning and show that the corresponding K-values are optimistic for the expected Q-values at each state-action pair. The K-values induce a natural Boltzmann exploration policy for which the `temperature' parameter is equal to the risk-seeking parameter. This policy achieves an expected regret bound of $\tilde O(L^{3/2} \sqrt{S A T})$, where $L$ is the time horizon, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $T$ is the total number of elapsed time-steps. This bound is only a factor of $L$ larger than the established lower bound. K-learning can be interpreted as mirror descent in the policy space, and it is similar to other well-known methods in the literature, including Q-learning, soft-Q-learning, and maximum entropy policy gradient, and is closely related to optimism and count based exploration methods. K-learning is simple to implement, as it only requires adding a bonus to the reward at each state-action and then solving a Bellman equation. We conclude with a numerical example demonstrating that K-learning is competitive with other state-of-the-art algorithms in practice.