Energy time-series analysis describes the process of analyzing past energy observations and possibly external factors so as to predict the future. Different tasks are involved in the general field of energy time-series analysis and forecasting, with electric load demand forecasting, personalized energy consumption forecasting, as well as renewable energy generation forecasting being among the most common ones. Following the exceptional performance of Deep Learning (DL) in a broad area of vision tasks, DL models have successfully been utilized in time-series forecasting tasks. This paper aims to provide insight into various DL methods geared towards improving the performance in energy time-series forecasting tasks, with special emphasis in Greek Energy Market, and equip the reader with the necessary knowledge to apply these methods in practice.
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In this paper, we obtain a number of new simple pseudo-polynomial time algorithms on the well-known knapsack problem, focusing on the running time dependency on the number of items $n$, the maximum item weight $w_\mathrm{max}$, and the maximum item profit $p_\mathrm{max}$. Our results include: - An $\widetilde{O}(n^{3/2}\cdot \min\{w_\mathrm{max},p_\mathrm{max}\})$-time randomized algorithm for 0-1 knapsack, improving the previous $\widetilde{O}(\min\{n w_\mathrm{max} p_\mathrm{max}^{2/3},n p_\mathrm{max} w_\mathrm{max}^{2/3}\})$ [Bringmann and Cassis, ESA'23] for the small $n$ case. - An $\widetilde{O}(n+\min\{w_\mathrm{max},p_\mathrm{max}\}^{5/2})$-time randomized algorithm for bounded knapsack, improving the previous $O(n+\min\{w_\mathrm{max}^3,p_\mathrm{max}^3\})$ [Polak, Rohwedder and Wegrzyck, ICALP'21].
Spurious correlations occur when a model learns unreliable features from the data and are a well-known drawback of data-driven learning. Although there are several algorithms proposed to mitigate it, we are yet to jointly derive the indicators of spurious correlations. As a result, the solutions built upon standalone hypotheses fail to beat simple ERM baselines. We collect some of the commonly studied hypotheses behind the occurrence of spurious correlations and investigate their influence on standard ERM baselines using synthetic datasets generated from causal graphs. Subsequently, we observe patterns connecting these hypotheses and model design choices.
Spring-based actuators in legged locomotion provide energy-efficiency and improved performance, but increase the difficulty of controller design. While previous work has focused on extensive modeling and simulation to find optimal controllers for such systems, we propose to learn model-free controllers directly on the real robot. In our approach, gaits are first synthesized by central pattern generators (CPGs), whose parameters are optimized to quickly obtain an open-loop controller that achieves efficient locomotion. Then, to make this controller more robust and further improve the performance, we use reinforcement learning to close the loop, to learn corrective actions on top of the CPGs. We evaluate the proposed approach on the DLR elastic quadruped bert. Our results in learning trotting and pronking gaits show that exploitation of the spring actuator dynamics emerges naturally from optimizing for dynamic motions, yielding high-performing locomotion, particularly the fastest walking gait recorded on bert, despite being model-free. The whole process takes no more than 1.5 hours on the real robot and results in natural-looking gaits.
We consider extensions of the Newton-MR algorithm for nonconvex optimization to the settings where Hessian information is approximated. Under additive noise model on the Hessian matrix, we investigate the iteration and operation complexities of these variants to achieve first and second-order sub-optimality criteria. We show that, under certain conditions, the algorithms achieve iteration and operation complexities that match those of the exact variant. Focusing on the particular nonconvex problems satisfying Polyak-\L ojasiewicz condition, we show that our algorithm achieves a linear convergence rate. We finally compare the performance of our algorithms with several alternatives on a few machine learning problems.
Individuals with complex communication needs (CCN) often rely on augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) systems to have conversations and communique their wants. Such systems allow message authoring by arranging pictograms in sequence. However, the difficulty of finding the desired item to complete a sentence can increase as the user's vocabulary increases. This paper proposes using BERTimbau, a Brazilian Portuguese version of BERT, for pictogram prediction in AAC systems. To finetune BERTimbau, we constructed an AAC corpus for Brazilian Portuguese to use as a training corpus. We tested different approaches to representing a pictogram for prediction: as a word (using pictogram captions), as a concept (using a dictionary definition), and as a set of synonyms (using related terms). We also evaluated the usage of images for pictogram prediction. The results demonstrate that using embeddings computed from the pictograms' caption, synonyms, or definitions have a similar performance. Using synonyms leads to lower perplexity, but using captions leads to the highest accuracies. This paper provides insight into how to represent a pictogram for prediction using a BERT-like model and the potential of using images for pictogram prediction.
Quasars experiencing strong lensing offer unique viewpoints on subjects related to the cosmic expansion rate, the dark matter profile within the foreground deflectors, and the quasar host galaxies. Unfortunately, identifying them in astronomical images is challenging since they are overwhelmed by the abundance of non-lenses. To address this, we have developed a novel approach by ensembling cutting-edge convolutional networks (CNNs) -- for instance, ResNet, Inception, NASNet, MobileNet, EfficientNet, and RegNet -- along with vision transformers (ViTs) trained on realistic galaxy-quasar lens simulations based on the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) multiband images. While the individual model exhibits remarkable performance when evaluated against the test dataset, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of $>$97.3% and a median false positive rate of 3.6%, it struggles to generalize in real data, indicated by numerous spurious sources picked by each classifier. A significant improvement is achieved by averaging these CNNs and ViTs, resulting in the impurities being downsized by factors up to 50. Subsequently, combining the HSC images with the UKIRT, VISTA, and unWISE data, we retrieve approximately 60 million sources as parent samples and reduce this to 892,609 after employing a photometry preselection to discover $z>1.5$ lensed quasars with Einstein radii of $\theta_\mathrm{E}<5$ arcsec. Afterward, the ensemble classifier indicates 3080 sources with a high probability of being lenses, for which we visually inspect, yielding 210 prevailing candidates awaiting spectroscopic confirmation. These outcomes suggest that automated deep learning pipelines hold great potential in effectively detecting strong lenses in vast datasets with minimal manual visual inspection involved.
Deep learning-based surrogate models have been widely applied in geological carbon storage (GCS) problems to accelerate the prediction of reservoir pressure and CO2 plume migration. Large amounts of data from physics-based numerical simulators are required to train a model to accurately predict the complex physical behaviors associated with this process. In practice, the available training data are always limited in large-scale 3D problems due to the high computational cost. Therefore, we propose to use a multi-fidelity Fourier Neural Operator to solve large-scale GCS problems with more affordable multi-fidelity training datasets. The Fourier Neural Operator has a desirable grid-invariant property, which simplifies the transfer learning procedure between datasets with different discretization. We first test the model efficacy on a GCS reservoir model being discretized into 110k grid cells. The multi-fidelity model can predict with accuracy comparable to a high-fidelity model trained with the same amount of high-fidelity data with 81% less data generation costs. We further test the generalizability of the multi-fidelity model on a same reservoir model with a finer discretization of 1 million grid cells. This case was made more challenging by employing high-fidelity and low-fidelity datasets generated by different geostatistical models and reservoir simulators. We observe that the multi-fidelity FNO model can predict pressure fields with reasonable accuracy even when the high-fidelity data are extremely limited.
Many approaches for optimizing decision making systems rely on gradient based methods requiring informative feedback from the environment. However, in the case where such feedback is sparse or uninformative, such approaches may result in poor performance. Derivative-free approaches such as Bayesian Optimization mitigate the dependency on the quality of gradient feedback, but are known to scale poorly in the high-dimension setting of complex decision making systems. This problem is exacerbated if the system requires interactions between several actors cooperating to accomplish a shared goal. To address the dimensionality challenge, we propose a compact multi-layered architecture modeling the dynamics of actor interactions through the concept of role. Additionally, we introduce Hessian-aware Bayesian Optimization to efficiently optimize the multi-layered architecture parameterized by a large number of parameters. Experimental results demonstrate that our method (HA-GP-UCB) works effectively on several benchmarks under resource constraints and malformed feedback settings.
Causal Adversarial Perturbations for Individual Fairness and Robustness in Heterogeneous Data Spaces
As responsible AI gains importance in machine learning algorithms, properties such as fairness, adversarial robustness, and causality have received considerable attention in recent years. However, despite their individual significance, there remains a critical gap in simultaneously exploring and integrating these properties. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that examines the relationship between individual fairness, adversarial robustness, and structural causal models in heterogeneous data spaces, particularly when dealing with discrete sensitive attributes. We use causal structural models and sensitive attributes to create a fair metric and apply it to measure semantic similarity among individuals. By introducing a novel causal adversarial perturbation and applying adversarial training, we create a new regularizer that combines individual fairness, causality, and robustness in the classifier. Our method is evaluated on both real-world and synthetic datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness in achieving an accurate classifier that simultaneously exhibits fairness, adversarial robustness, and causal awareness.
Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.
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