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We present a Bayesian nonparametric model for conditional distribution estimation using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). The generative model we use is based on rejection sampling from a base model. Typical of BART models, our model is flexible, has a default prior specification, and is computationally convenient. To address the distinguished role of the response in the BART model we propose, we further introduce an approach to targeted smoothing which is possibly of independent interest for BART models. We study the proposed model theoretically and provide sufficient conditions for the posterior distribution to concentrate at close to the minimax optimal rate adaptively over smoothness classes in the high-dimensional regime in which many predictors are irrelevant. To fit our model we propose a data augmentation algorithm which allows for existing BART samplers to be extended with minimal effort. We illustrate the performance of our methodology on simulated data and use it to study the relationship between education and body mass index using data from the medical expenditure panel survey (MEPS).

Applying the concept of S-convergence, based on averaging in the spirit of Strong Law of Large Numbers, the vanishing viscosity solutions of the Euler system are studied. We show how to efficiently compute a viscosity solution of the Euler system as the S-limit of numerical solutions obtained by the Viscosity Finite Volume method. Theoretical results are illustrated by numerical simulations of the Kelvin--Helmholtz instability problem.

Many problems in computational science and engineering can be described in terms of approximating a smooth function of $d$ variables, defined over an unknown domain of interest $\Omega\subset \mathbb{R}^d$, from sample data. Here both the curse of dimensionality ($d\gg 1$) and the lack of domain knowledge with $\Omega$ potentially irregular and/or disconnected are confounding factors for sampling-based methods. Na\"{i}ve approaches often lead to wasted samples and inefficient approximation schemes. For example, uniform sampling can result in upwards of 20\% wasted samples in some problems. In surrogate model construction in computational uncertainty quantification (UQ), the high cost of computing samples needs a more efficient sampling procedure. In the last years, methods for computing such approximations from sample data have been studied in the case of irregular domains. The advantages of computing sampling measures depending on an approximation space $P$ of $\dim(P)=N$ have been shown. In particular, such methods confer advantages such as stability and well-conditioning, with $\mathcal{O}(N\log(N))$ as sample complexity. The recently-proposed adaptive sampling for general domains (ASGD) strategy is one method to construct these sampling measures. The main contribution of this paper is to improve ASGD by adaptively updating the sampling measures over unknown domains. We achieve this by first introducing a general domain adaptivity strategy (GDAS), which approximates the function and domain of interest from sample points. Second, we propose adaptive sampling for unknown domains (ASUD), which generates sampling measures over a domain that may not be known in advance. Then, we derive least squares techniques for polynomial approximation on unknown domains. Numerical results show that the ASUD approach can reduce the computational cost by as 50\% when compared with uniform sampling.

In the storied Colonel Blotto game, two colonels allocate $a$ and $b$ troops, respectively, to $k$ distinct battlefields. A colonel wins a battle if they assign more troops to that particular battle, and each colonel seeks to maximize their total number of victories. Despite the problem's formulation in 1921, the first polynomial-time algorithm to compute Nash equilibrium (NE) strategies for this game was discovered only quite recently. In 2016, \citep{ahmadinejad_dehghani_hajiaghayi_lucier_mahini_seddighin_2019} formulated a breakthrough algorithm to compute NE strategies for the Colonel Blotto game in computational complexity $O(k^{14}\max\{a,b\}^{13})$, receiving substantial media coverage (e.g. \citep{Insider}, \citep{NSF}, \citep{ScienceDaily}). This is the only known provably efficient algorithm for the Colonel Blotto game with general parameters. In this work, we present the first known algorithm to compute $\epsilon$-approximate NE strategies in the two-player Colonel Blotto game in runtime $\widetilde{O}(\epsilon^{-4} k^8 \max\{a,b\})$ for arbitrary settings of these parameters. Moreover, this algorithm computes approximate coarse correlated equilibrium strategies in the multiplayer Colonel Blotto game (when there are $\ell > 2$ colonels) with runtime $\widetilde{O}(\ell \epsilon^{-4} k^8 n + \ell^2 \epsilon^{-2} k^3 n)$, where $n$ is the maximum troop count. Before this work, no polynomial-time algorithm was known to compute exact or approximate equilibrium (in any sense) strategies for multiplayer Colonel Blotto with arbitrary parameters. Our algorithm computes these approximate equilibria through a novel (to the author's knowledge) sampling technique with which it implicitly performs multiplicative weights update over the exponentially many strategies available to each player.

Zero-free based algorithm is a major technique for deterministic approximate counting. In Barvinok's original framework[Bar17], by calculating truncated Taylor expansions, a quasi-polynomial time algorithm was given for estimating zero-free partition functions. Patel and Regts[PR17] later gave a refinement of Barvinok's framework, which gave a polynomial-time algorithm for a class of zero-free graph polynomials that can be expressed as counting induced subgraphs in bounded-degree graphs. In this paper, we give a polynomial-time algorithm for estimating classical and quantum partition functions specified by local Hamiltonians with bounded maximum degree, assuming a zero-free property for the temperature. Consequently, when the inverse temperature is close enough to zero by a constant gap, we have polynomial-time approximation algorithm for all such partition functions. Our result is based on a new abstract framework that extends and generalizes the approach of Patel and Regts.

Optimum parameter estimation methods require knowledge of a parametric probability density that statistically describes the available observations. In this work we examine Bayesian and non-Bayesian parameter estimation problems under a data-driven formulation where the necessary parametric probability density is replaced by available data. We present various data-driven versions that either result in neural network approximations of the optimum estimators or in well defined optimization problems that can be solved numerically. In particular, for the data-driven equivalent of non-Bayesian estimation we end up with optimization problems similar to the ones encountered for the design of generative networks.

We study Martin-L\"{o}f random (ML-random) points on computable probability measures on sample and parameter spaces (Bayes models). We consider four variants of conditional random sequences with respect to the conditional distributions: two of them are defined by ML-randomness on Bayes models and the others are defined by blind tests for conditional distributions. We consider a weak criterion for conditional ML-randomness and show that only variants of ML-randomness on Bayes models satisfy the criterion. We show that these four variants of conditional randomness are identical when the conditional probability measure is computable and the posterior distribution converges weakly to almost all parameters. We compare ML-randomness on Bayes models with randomness for uniformly computable parametric models. It is known that two computable probability measures are orthogonal if and only if their ML-random sets are disjoint. We extend these results for uniformly computable parametric models. Finally, we present an algorithmic solution to a classical problem in Bayes statistics, i.e.~the posterior distributions converge weakly to almost all parameters if and only if the posterior distributions converge weakly to all ML-random parameters.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular likelihood-free inference method for models with intractable likelihood functions. As ABC methods usually rely on comparing summary statistics of observed and simulated data, the choice of the statistics is crucial. This choice involves a trade-off between loss of information and dimensionality reduction, and is often determined based on domain knowledge. However, handcrafting and selecting suitable statistics is a laborious task involving multiple trial-and-error steps. In this work, we introduce an active learning method for ABC statistics selection which reduces the domain expert's work considerably. By involving the experts, we are able to handle misspecified models, unlike the existing dimension reduction methods. Moreover, empirical results show better posterior estimates than with existing methods, when the simulation budget is limited.

Many causal inference approaches have focused on identifying an individual's outcome change due to a potential treatment, or the individual treatment effect (ITE), from observational studies. Rather than only estimating the ITE, we propose Collaborating Causal Networks (CCN) to estimate the full potential outcome distributions. This modification facilitates estimating the utility of each treatment and allows for individual variation in utility functions (e.g., variability in risk tolerance). We show that CCN learns distributions that asymptotically capture the correct potential outcome distributions under standard causal inference assumptions. Furthermore, we develop a new adjustment approach that is empirically effective in alleviating sample imbalance between treatment groups in observational studies. We evaluate CCN by extensive empirical experiments and demonstrate improved distribution estimates compared to existing Bayesian and Generative Adversarial Network-based methods. Additionally, CCN empirically improves decisions over a variety of utility functions.

One of the main features of interest in analysing the light curves of stars is the underlying periodic behaviour. The corresponding observations are a complex type of time series with unequally spaced time points and are sometimes accompanied by varying measures of accuracy. The main tools for analysing these type of data rely on the periodogram-like functions, constructed with a desired feature so that the peaks indicate the presence of a potential period. In this paper, we explore a particular periodogram for the irregularly observed time series data, similar to Thieler et. al. (2013). We identify the potential periods at the appropriate peaks and more importantly with a quantifiable uncertainty. Our approach is shown to easily generalise to non-parametric methods including a weighted Gaussian process regression periodogram. We also extend this approach to correlated background noise. The proposed method for period detection relies on a test based on quadratic forms with normally distributed components. We implement the saddlepoint approximation, as a faster and more accurate alternative to the simulation-based methods that are currently used. The power analysis of the testing methodology is reported together with applications using light curves from the Hunting Outbursting Young Stars citizen science project.