Movie-making has become one of the most costly and risky endeavors in the entertainment industry. Continuous change in the preference of the audience makes it harder to predict what kind of movie will be financially successful at the box office. So, it is no wonder that cautious, intelligent stakeholders and large production houses will always want to know the probable revenue that will be generated by a movie before making an investment. Researchers have been working on finding an optimal strategy to help investors in making the right decisions. But the lack of a large, up-to-date dataset makes their work harder. In this work, we introduce an up-to-date, richer, and larger dataset that we have prepared by scraping IMDb for researchers and data analysts to work with. The compiled dataset contains the summery data of 7.5 million titles and detail information of more than 200K movies. Additionally, we perform different statistical analysis approaches on our dataset to find out how a movie's revenue is affected by different pre-released attributes such as budget, runtime, release month, content rating, genre etc. In our analysis, we have found that having a star cast/director has a positive impact on generated revenue. We introduce a novel approach for calculating the star power of a movie. Based on our analysis we select a set of attributes as features and train different machine learning algorithms to predict a movie's expected revenue. Based on generated revenue, we classified the movies in 10 categories and achieved a one-class-away accuracy rate of almost 60% (bingo accuracy of 30%). All the generated datasets and analysis codes are available online. We also made the source codes of our scraper bots public, so that researchers interested in extending this work can easily modify these bots as they need and prepare their own up-to-date datasets.
Many online communities rely on postpublication moderation where contributors -- even those that are perceived as being risky -- are allowed to publish material immediately without review. An alternative arrangement involves moderating content before publication. A range of communities have argued against prepublication moderation by suggesting that it makes contributing less enjoyable for new members and that it will distract established community members with extra moderation work. We present an empirical analysis of the effects of a prepublication review system called \textit{FlaggedRevs} that was deployed by several Wikipedia language editions. We used panel data from 17 large Wikipedia editions to test a series of hypotheses related to the effect of the system on activity levels and contribution quality within the affected communities. We found that the system was very effective at keeping low-quality contributions from ever becoming visible. Although there is some evidence that the system discouraged participation among unregistered users, our analysis suggests that the system's effects on contribution volume and quality were moderate at most. Our findings imply that concerns regarding the major negative effects of prepublication moderation systems on contribution quality, project productivity, and community sustainability may be overstated.
In the future, AI will increasingly find its way into systems that can potentially cause physical harm to humans. For such safety-critical systems, it must be demonstrated that their residual risk does not exceed what is acceptable. This includes, in particular, the AI components that are part of such systems' safety-related functions. Assurance cases are an intensively discussed option today for specifying a sound and comprehensive safety argument to demonstrate a system's safety. In previous work, it has been suggested to argue safety for AI components by structuring assurance cases based on two complementary risk acceptance criteria. One of these criteria is used to derive quantitative targets regarding the AI. The argumentation structures commonly proposed to show the achievement of such quantitative targets, however, focus on failure rates from statistical testing. Further important aspects are only considered in a qualitative manner -- if at all. In contrast, this paper proposes a more holistic argumentation structure for having achieved the target, namely a structure that integrates test results with runtime aspects and the impact of scope compliance and test data quality in a quantitative manner. We elaborate different argumentation options, present the underlying mathematical considerations, and discuss resulting implications for their practical application. Using the proposed argumentation structure might not only increase the integrity of assurance cases but may also allow claims on quantitative targets that would not be justifiable otherwise.
Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance $2$-$4\times$ more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works.
Predicative machine learning models are frequently being used by companies, institutes and organizations to make choices about humans. Strategic classification studies learning in settings where self-interested users can strategically modify their features to obtain favorable predictive outcomes. A key working assumption, however, is that 'favorable' always means 'positive'; this may be appropriate in some applications (e.g., loan approval, university admissions and hiring), but reduces to a fairly narrow view what user interests can be. In this work we argue for a broader perspective on what accounts for strategic user behavior, and propose and study a flexible model of generalized strategic classification. Our generalized model subsumes most current models, but includes other novel settings; among these, we identify and target one intriguing sub-class of problems in which the interests of users and the system are aligned. For this cooperative setting, we provide an in-depth analysis, and propose a practical learning approach that is effective and efficient. We compare our approach to existing learning methods and show its statistical and optimization benefits. Returning to our fully generalized model, we show how our results and approach can extend to the most general case. We conclude with a set of experiments that empirically demonstrate the utility of our approach.
To make deliberate progress towards more intelligent and more human-like artificial systems, we need to be following an appropriate feedback signal: we need to be able to define and evaluate intelligence in a way that enables comparisons between two systems, as well as comparisons with humans. Over the past hundred years, there has been an abundance of attempts to define and measure intelligence, across both the fields of psychology and AI. We summarize and critically assess these definitions and evaluation approaches, while making apparent the two historical conceptions of intelligence that have implicitly guided them. We note that in practice, the contemporary AI community still gravitates towards benchmarking intelligence by comparing the skill exhibited by AIs and humans at specific tasks such as board games and video games. We argue that solely measuring skill at any given task falls short of measuring intelligence, because skill is heavily modulated by prior knowledge and experience: unlimited priors or unlimited training data allow experimenters to "buy" arbitrary levels of skills for a system, in a way that masks the system's own generalization power. We then articulate a new formal definition of intelligence based on Algorithmic Information Theory, describing intelligence as skill-acquisition efficiency and highlighting the concepts of scope, generalization difficulty, priors, and experience. Using this definition, we propose a set of guidelines for what a general AI benchmark should look like. Finally, we present a benchmark closely following these guidelines, the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), built upon an explicit set of priors designed to be as close as possible to innate human priors. We argue that ARC can be used to measure a human-like form of general fluid intelligence and that it enables fair general intelligence comparisons between AI systems and humans.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has undergone a renaissance recently, making major progress in key domains such as vision, language, control, and decision-making. This has been due, in part, to cheap data and cheap compute resources, which have fit the natural strengths of deep learning. However, many defining characteristics of human intelligence, which developed under much different pressures, remain out of reach for current approaches. In particular, generalizing beyond one's experiences--a hallmark of human intelligence from infancy--remains a formidable challenge for modern AI. The following is part position paper, part review, and part unification. We argue that combinatorial generalization must be a top priority for AI to achieve human-like abilities, and that structured representations and computations are key to realizing this objective. Just as biology uses nature and nurture cooperatively, we reject the false choice between "hand-engineering" and "end-to-end" learning, and instead advocate for an approach which benefits from their complementary strengths. We explore how using relational inductive biases within deep learning architectures can facilitate learning about entities, relations, and rules for composing them. We present a new building block for the AI toolkit with a strong relational inductive bias--the graph network--which generalizes and extends various approaches for neural networks that operate on graphs, and provides a straightforward interface for manipulating structured knowledge and producing structured behaviors. We discuss how graph networks can support relational reasoning and combinatorial generalization, laying the foundation for more sophisticated, interpretable, and flexible patterns of reasoning.
The Everyday Sexism Project documents everyday examples of sexism reported by volunteer contributors from all around the world. It collected 100,000 entries in 13+ languages within the first 3 years of its existence. The content of reports in various languages submitted to Everyday Sexism is a valuable source of crowdsourced information with great potential for feminist and gender studies. In this paper, we take a computational approach to analyze the content of reports. We use topic-modelling techniques to extract emerging topics and concepts from the reports, and to map the semantic relations between those topics. The resulting picture closely resembles and adds to that arrived at through qualitative analysis, showing that this form of topic modeling could be useful for sifting through datasets that had not previously been subject to any analysis. More precisely, we come up with a map of topics for two different resolutions of our topic model and discuss the connection between the identified topics. In the low resolution picture, for instance, we found Public space/Street, Online, Work related/Office, Transport, School, Media harassment, and Domestic abuse. Among these, the strongest connection is between Public space/Street harassment and Domestic abuse and sexism in personal relationships.The strength of the relationships between topics illustrates the fluid and ubiquitous nature of sexism, with no single experience being unrelated to another.
We propose the inverse problem of Visual question answering (iVQA), and explore its suitability as a benchmark for visuo-linguistic understanding. The iVQA task is to generate a question that corresponds to a given image and answer pair. Since the answers are less informative than the questions, and the questions have less learnable bias, an iVQA model needs to better understand the image to be successful than a VQA model. We pose question generation as a multi-modal dynamic inference process and propose an iVQA model that can gradually adjust its focus of attention guided by both a partially generated question and the answer. For evaluation, apart from existing linguistic metrics, we propose a new ranking metric. This metric compares the ground truth question's rank among a list of distractors, which allows the drawbacks of different algorithms and sources of error to be studied. Experimental results show that our model can generate diverse, grammatically correct and content correlated questions that match the given answer.
Product recommendation systems are important for major movie studios during the movie greenlight process and as part of machine learning personalization pipelines. Collaborative Filtering (CF) models have proved to be effective at powering recommender systems for online streaming services with explicit customer feedback data. CF models do not perform well in scenarios in which feedback data is not available, in cold start situations like new product launches, and situations with markedly different customer tiers (e.g., high frequency customers vs. casual customers). Generative natural language models that create useful theme-based representations of an underlying corpus of documents can be used to represent new product descriptions, like new movie plots. When combined with CF, they have shown to increase the performance in cold start situations. Outside of those cases though in which explicit customer feedback is available, recommender engines must rely on binary purchase data, which materially degrades performance. Fortunately, purchase data can be combined with product descriptions to generate meaningful representations of products and customer trajectories in a convenient product space in which proximity represents similarity. Learning to measure the distance between points in this space can be accomplished with a deep neural network that trains on customer histories and on dense vectorizations of product descriptions. We developed a system based on Collaborative (Deep) Metric Learning (CML) to predict the purchase probabilities of new theatrical releases. We trained and evaluated the model using a large dataset of customer histories, and tested the model for a set of movies that were released outside of the training window. Initial experiments show gains relative to models that do not train on collaborative preferences.
The text of a review expresses the sentiment a customer has towards a particular product. This is exploited in sentiment analysis where machine learning models are used to predict the review score from the text of the review. Furthermore, the products costumers have purchased in the past are indicative of the products they will purchase in the future. This is what recommender systems exploit by learning models from purchase information to predict the items a customer might be interested in. We propose TransRev, an approach to the product recommendation problem that integrates ideas from recommender systems, sentiment analysis, and multi-relational learning into a joint learning objective. TransRev learns vector representations for users, items, and reviews. The embedding of a review is learned such that (a) it performs well as input feature of a regression model for sentiment prediction; and (b) it always translates the reviewer embedding to the embedding of the reviewed items. This allows TransRev to approximate a review embedding at test time as the difference of the embedding of each item and the user embedding. The approximated review embedding is then used with the regression model to predict the review score for each item. TransRev outperforms state of the art recommender systems on a large number of benchmark data sets. Moreover, it is able to retrieve, for each user and item, the review text from the training set whose embedding is most similar to the approximated review embedding.