Precise crop yield prediction is essential for improving agricultural practices and ensuring crop resilience in varying climates. Integrating weather data across the growing season, especially for different crop varieties, is crucial for understanding their adaptability in the face of climate change. In the MLCAS2021 Crop Yield Prediction Challenge, we utilized a dataset comprising 93,028 training records to forecast yields for 10,337 test records, covering 159 locations across 28 U.S. states and Canadian provinces over 13 years (2003-2015). This dataset included details on 5,838 distinct genotypes and daily weather data for a 214-day growing season, enabling comprehensive analysis. As one of the winning teams, we developed two novel convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures: the CNN-DNN model, combining CNN and fully-connected networks, and the CNN-LSTM-DNN model, with an added LSTM layer for weather variables. Leveraging the Generalized Ensemble Method (GEM), we determined optimal model weights, resulting in superior performance compared to baseline models. The GEM model achieved lower RMSE (5.55% to 39.88%), reduced MAE (5.34% to 43.76%), and higher correlation coefficients (1.1% to 10.79%) when evaluated on test data. We applied the CNN-DNN model to identify top-performing genotypes for various locations and weather conditions, aiding genotype selection based on weather variables. Our data-driven approach is valuable for scenarios with limited testing years. Additionally, a feature importance analysis using RMSE change highlighted the significance of location, MG, year, and genotype, along with the importance of weather variables MDNI and AP.
Ratings are frequently used to evaluate and compare subjects in various applications, from education to healthcare, because ratings provide succinct yet credible measures for comparing subjects. However, when multiple rating lists are combined or considered together, subjects often have missing ratings, because most rating lists do not rate every subject in the combined list. In this study, we propose analyses on missing value patterns using six real-world data sets in various applications, as well as the conditions for applicability of imputation algorithms. Based on the special structures and properties derived from the analyses, we propose optimization models and algorithms that minimize the total rating discordance across rating providers to impute missing ratings in the combined rating lists, using only the known rating information. The total rating discordance is defined as the sum of the pairwise discordance metric, which can be written as a quadratic function. Computational experiments based on real-world and synthetic rating data sets show that the proposed methods outperform the state-of-the-art general imputation methods in the literature in terms of imputation accuracy.
Wasserstein distributionally robust estimators have emerged as powerful models for prediction and decision-making under uncertainty. These estimators provide attractive generalization guarantees: the robust objective obtained from the training distribution is an exact upper bound on the true risk with high probability. However, existing guarantees either suffer from the curse of dimensionality, are restricted to specific settings, or lead to spurious error terms. In this paper, we show that these generalization guarantees actually hold on general classes of models, do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality, and can even cover distribution shifts at testing. We also prove that these results carry over to the newly-introduced regularized versions of Wasserstein distributionally robust problems.
Deep learning (DL) has successfully automated dose distribution prediction in radiotherapy planning, enhancing both efficiency and quality. However, existing methods suffer from the over-smoothing problem for their commonly used L1 or L2 loss with posterior average calculations. To alleviate this limitation, we propose a diffusion model-based method (DiffDose) for predicting the radiotherapy dose distribution of cancer patients. Specifically, the DiffDose model contains a forward process and a reverse process. In the forward process, DiffDose transforms dose distribution maps into pure Gaussian noise by gradually adding small noise and a noise predictor is simultaneously trained to estimate the noise added at each timestep. In the reverse process, it removes the noise from the pure Gaussian noise in multiple steps with the well-trained noise predictor and finally outputs the predicted dose distribution maps...
Data depth is an efficient tool for robustly summarizing the distribution of functional data and detecting potential magnitude and shape outliers. Commonly used functional data depth notions, such as the modified band depth and extremal depth, are estimated from pointwise depth for each observed functional observation. However, these techniques require calculating one single depth value for each functional observation, which may not be sufficient to characterize the distribution of the functional data and detect potential outliers. This paper presents an innovative approach to make the best use of pointwise depth. We propose using the pointwise depth distribution for magnitude outlier visualization and the correlation between pairwise depth for shape outlier detection. Furthermore, a bootstrap-based testing procedure has been introduced for the correlation to test whether there is any shape outlier. The proposed univariate methods are then extended to bivariate functional data. The performance of the proposed methods is examined and compared to conventional outlier detection techniques by intensive simulation studies. In addition, the developed methods are applied to simulated solar energy datasets from a photovoltaic system. Results revealed that the proposed method offers superior detection performance over conventional techniques. These findings will benefit engineers and practitioners in monitoring photovoltaic systems by detecting unnoticed anomalies and outliers.
Controlling chatbot utterance generation with multiple attributes such as personalities, emotions and dialogue acts is a practically useful but under-studied problem. We propose a novel framework called DASC that possesses strong controllability with a weighted decoding paradigm, while improving generation quality with the grounding in an attribute semantics space. Generation with multiple attributes is then intuitively implemented with an interpolation of multiple attribute embeddings, which results in substantial reduction in the model sizes. Experiments show that DASC can achieve high control accuracy in generation task with the simultaneous control of 3 aspects while also producing interesting and reasonably sensible responses, even in an out-of-distribution robustness test.
The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.
Conventional entity typing approaches are based on independent classification paradigms, which make them difficult to recognize inter-dependent, long-tailed and fine-grained entity types. In this paper, we argue that the implicitly entailed extrinsic and intrinsic dependencies between labels can provide critical knowledge to tackle the above challenges. To this end, we propose \emph{Label Reasoning Network(LRN)}, which sequentially reasons fine-grained entity labels by discovering and exploiting label dependencies knowledge entailed in the data. Specifically, LRN utilizes an auto-regressive network to conduct deductive reasoning and a bipartite attribute graph to conduct inductive reasoning between labels, which can effectively model, learn and reason complex label dependencies in a sequence-to-set, end-to-end manner. Experiments show that LRN achieves the state-of-the-art performance on standard ultra fine-grained entity typing benchmarks, and can also resolve the long tail label problem effectively.
Most object recognition approaches predominantly focus on learning discriminative visual patterns while overlooking the holistic object structure. Though important, structure modeling usually requires significant manual annotations and therefore is labor-intensive. In this paper, we propose to "look into object" (explicitly yet intrinsically model the object structure) through incorporating self-supervisions into the traditional framework. We show the recognition backbone can be substantially enhanced for more robust representation learning, without any cost of extra annotation and inference speed. Specifically, we first propose an object-extent learning module for localizing the object according to the visual patterns shared among the instances in the same category. We then design a spatial context learning module for modeling the internal structures of the object, through predicting the relative positions within the extent. These two modules can be easily plugged into any backbone networks during training and detached at inference time. Extensive experiments show that our look-into-object approach (LIO) achieves large performance gain on a number of benchmarks, including generic object recognition (ImageNet) and fine-grained object recognition tasks (CUB, Cars, Aircraft). We also show that this learning paradigm is highly generalizable to other tasks such as object detection and segmentation (MS COCO). Project page: //github.com/JDAI-CV/LIO.
Most existing knowledge graphs suffer from incompleteness, which can be alleviated by inferring missing links based on known facts. One popular way to accomplish this is to generate low-dimensional embeddings of entities and relations, and use these to make inferences. ConvE, a recently proposed approach, applies convolutional filters on 2D reshapings of entity and relation embeddings in order to capture rich interactions between their components. However, the number of interactions that ConvE can capture is limited. In this paper, we analyze how increasing the number of these interactions affects link prediction performance, and utilize our observations to propose InteractE. InteractE is based on three key ideas -- feature permutation, a novel feature reshaping, and circular convolution. Through extensive experiments, we find that InteractE outperforms state-of-the-art convolutional link prediction baselines on FB15k-237. Further, InteractE achieves an MRR score that is 9%, 7.5%, and 23% better than ConvE on the FB15k-237, WN18RR and YAGO3-10 datasets respectively. The results validate our central hypothesis -- that increasing feature interaction is beneficial to link prediction performance. We make the source code of InteractE available to encourage reproducible research.
While existing machine learning models have achieved great success for sentiment classification, they typically do not explicitly capture sentiment-oriented word interaction, which can lead to poor results for fine-grained analysis at the snippet level (a phrase or sentence). Factorization Machine provides a possible approach to learning element-wise interaction for recommender systems, but they are not directly applicable to our task due to the inability to model contexts and word sequences. In this work, we develop two Position-aware Factorization Machines which consider word interaction, context and position information. Such information is jointly encoded in a set of sentiment-oriented word interaction vectors. Compared to traditional word embeddings, SWI vectors explicitly capture sentiment-oriented word interaction and simplify the parameter learning. Experimental results show that while they have comparable performance with state-of-the-art methods for document-level classification, they benefit the snippet/sentence-level sentiment analysis.