We present Markov's equality: a tight version of Markov's inequality, that does not impose further assumptions on the on the random variable. We show that this equality, as well as Markov's inequality and its randomized improvement, are directly implied by a set of deterministic inequalities. We apply Markov's equality to show that standard tests based on $e$-values and $e$-processes are post-hoc (anytime) valid: the tests remain valid, even if the level $\alpha$ is selected after observing the data. In fact, we show that this property characterizes $e$-values and $e$-processes.
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The Sliced-Wasserstein (SW) distance between probability measures is defined as the average of the Wasserstein distances resulting for the associated one-dimensional projections. As a consequence, the SW distance can be written as an integral with respect to the uniform measure on the sphere and the Monte Carlo framework can be employed for calculating the SW distance. Spherical harmonics are polynomials on the sphere that form an orthonormal basis of the set of square-integrable functions on the sphere. Putting these two facts together, a new Monte Carlo method, hereby referred to as Spherical Harmonics Control Variates (SHCV), is proposed for approximating the SW distance using spherical harmonics as control variates. The resulting approach is shown to have good theoretical properties, e.g., a no-error property for Gaussian measures under a certain form of linear dependency between the variables. Moreover, an improved rate of convergence, compared to Monte Carlo, is established for general measures. The convergence analysis relies on the Lipschitz property associated to the SW integrand. Several numerical experiments demonstrate the superior performance of SHCV against state-of-the-art methods for SW distance computation.
We propose a new multi-agent task grammar to encode collaborative tasks for a team of heterogeneous agents that can have overlapping capabilities. The grammar allows users to specify the relationship between agents and parts of the task without providing explicit assignments or constraints on the number of agents required. We develop a method to automatically find a team of agents and synthesize correct-by-construction control with synchronization policies to satisfy the task. We demonstrate the scalability of our approach through simulation and compare our method to existing task grammars that encode multi-agent tasks.
Probability predictions are essential to inform decision making across many fields. Ideally, probability predictions are (i) well calibrated, (ii) accurate, and (iii) bold, i.e., spread out enough to be informative for decision making. However, there is a fundamental tension between calibration and boldness, since calibration metrics can be high when predictions are overly cautious, i.e., non-bold. The purpose of this work is to develop a Bayesian model selection-based approach to assess calibration, and a strategy for boldness-recalibration that enables practitioners to responsibly embolden predictions subject to their required level of calibration. Specifically, we allow the user to pre-specify their desired posterior probability of calibration, then maximally embolden predictions subject to this constraint. We demonstrate the method with a case study on hockey home team win probabilities and then verify the performance of our procedures via simulation. We find that very slight relaxation of calibration probability (e.g., from 0.99 to 0.95) can often substantially embolden predictions when they are well calibrated and accurate (e.g., widening hockey predictions range from .26-.78 to .10-.91).
Large Language Models have emerged as prime candidates to tackle misinformation mitigation. However, existing approaches struggle with hallucinations and overconfident predictions. We propose an uncertainty quantification framework that leverages both direct confidence elicitation and sampled-based consistency methods to provide better calibration for NLP misinformation mitigation solutions. We first investigate the calibration of sample-based consistency methods that exploit distinct features of consistency across sample sizes and stochastic levels. Next, we evaluate the performance and distributional shift of a robust numeric verbalization prompt across single vs. two-step confidence elicitation procedure. We also compare the performance of the same prompt with different versions of GPT and different numerical scales. Finally, we combine the sample-based consistency and verbalized methods to propose a hybrid framework that yields a better uncertainty estimation for GPT models. Overall, our work proposes novel uncertainty quantification methods that will improve the reliability of Large Language Models in misinformation mitigation applications.
To achieve faithful reasoning that aligns with human expectations, large language models (LLMs) need to ground their reasoning to real-world knowledge (e.g., web facts, math and physical rules). Tools help LLMs access this external knowledge, but there remains challenges for fine-tuning LLM agents (e.g., Toolformer) to invoke tools in multi-step reasoning problems, where inter-connected tool calls require holistic and efficient tool usage planning. In this work, we propose a new method for LLMs to better leverage tools in multi-step reasoning. Our method, Chain-of-Abstraction (CoA), trains LLMs to first decode reasoning chains with abstract placeholders, and then call domain tools to reify each reasoning chain by filling in specific knowledge. This planning with abstract chains enables LLMs to learn more general reasoning strategies, which are robust to shifts of domain knowledge (e.g., math results) relevant to different reasoning questions. It also allows LLMs to perform decoding and calling of external tools in parallel, which avoids the inference delay caused by waiting for tool responses. In mathematical reasoning and Wiki QA domains, we show that our method consistently outperforms previous chain-of-thought and tool-augmented baselines on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets, with an average ~6% absolute QA accuracy improvement. LLM agents trained with our method also show more efficient tool use, with inference speed being on average ~1.4x faster than baseline tool-augmented LLMs.
Extensive fine-tuning on Large Language Models does not always yield better results. Oftentimes, models tend to get better at imitating one form of data without gaining greater reasoning ability and may even end up losing some intelligence. Here I introduce EvoMerge, a systematic approach to large language model training and merging. Leveraging model merging for weight crossover and fine-tuning for weight mutation, EvoMerge establishes an evolutionary process aimed at pushing models beyond the limits of conventional fine-tuning.
This article presents the affordances that Generative Artificial Intelligence can have in disinformation context, one of the major threats to our digitalized society. We present a research framework to generate customized agent-based social networks for disinformation simulations that would enable understanding and evaluation of the phenomena whilst discussing open challenges.
Contrastive loss has been increasingly used in learning representations from multiple modalities. In the limit, the nature of the contrastive loss encourages modalities to exactly match each other in the latent space. Yet it remains an open question how the modality alignment affects the downstream task performance. In this paper, based on an information-theoretic argument, we first prove that exact modality alignment is sub-optimal in general for downstream prediction tasks. Hence we advocate that the key of better performance lies in meaningful latent modality structures instead of perfect modality alignment. To this end, we propose three general approaches to construct latent modality structures. Specifically, we design 1) a deep feature separation loss for intra-modality regularization; 2) a Brownian-bridge loss for inter-modality regularization; and 3) a geometric consistency loss for both intra- and inter-modality regularization. Extensive experiments are conducted on two popular multi-modal representation learning frameworks: the CLIP-based two-tower model and the ALBEF-based fusion model. We test our model on a variety of tasks including zero/few-shot image classification, image-text retrieval, visual question answering, visual reasoning, and visual entailment. Our method achieves consistent improvements over existing methods, demonstrating the effectiveness and generalizability of our proposed approach on latent modality structure regularization.
Australia is a leading AI nation with strong allies and partnerships. Australia has prioritised robotics, AI, and autonomous systems to develop sovereign capability for the military. Australia commits to Article 36 reviews of all new means and methods of warfare to ensure weapons and weapons systems are operated within acceptable systems of control. Additionally, Australia has undergone significant reviews of the risks of AI to human rights and within intelligence organisations and has committed to producing ethics guidelines and frameworks in Security and Defence. Australia is committed to OECD's values-based principles for the responsible stewardship of trustworthy AI as well as adopting a set of National AI ethics principles. While Australia has not adopted an AI governance framework specifically for Defence; Defence Science has published 'A Method for Ethical AI in Defence' (MEAID) technical report which includes a framework and pragmatic tools for managing ethical and legal risks for military applications of AI.
In Multi-Label Text Classification (MLTC), one sample can belong to more than one class. It is observed that most MLTC tasks, there are dependencies or correlations among labels. Existing methods tend to ignore the relationship among labels. In this paper, a graph attention network-based model is proposed to capture the attentive dependency structure among the labels. The graph attention network uses a feature matrix and a correlation matrix to capture and explore the crucial dependencies between the labels and generate classifiers for the task. The generated classifiers are applied to sentence feature vectors obtained from the text feature extraction network (BiLSTM) to enable end-to-end training. Attention allows the system to assign different weights to neighbor nodes per label, thus allowing it to learn the dependencies among labels implicitly. The results of the proposed model are validated on five real-world MLTC datasets. The proposed model achieves similar or better performance compared to the previous state-of-the-art models.
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